I think everyone is ok with that opinion...but your justification of said opinion just isn't holding up.

WHY do you think it has NO chance at winning? Everything - reviews, performances, potential box office (likely top of the nominees, even) - say otherwise. Even if you don;t think it will win, to deny it any chance seems ridiculous. I dunno. Whole argument seems kinda silly to me either way...but. Just sayin.

I can't believe how much you guys are arguing over a few measly early reviews!!!
Wait till the movie comes out and then have at it.... this is just too silly!

Everyone has opinions and they're going to change until more cold hard facts start coming in...

My opinion is actually, almost the middle of the road to the argument at hand...

I think Walk the Line is one of the best and has been among the strongest competitors for the short list this year. From what I'm hearing, and I don't really read full reviews (almost ever until after I've seen a movie), I, as well, don't think it's shaping up to be something phenomenal. I think it's going to be a great engine for Pheonix and Witherspoon and it's in a great position to snag a nod right now...

However, I also don't see it winning. I'm not saying I don't think it has any chance of winning... At this point and this really weird year for Oscar, I cannot tell a single thing about the race that will take place late December/January. There is really SOO little to go on now that I find it rediculous to be arguing this heavily on the subject. Opinions and input, small debates suit the timeframe name... but you two are arguing how some were arguing about Ray's nod come early December last year!

King Kong will get great reviews,much better than star wars episoad 3.


Just Starting Shit

I just came from A History of Violence... lucky it was worth all the traffic and my 5+ near accidents!

I thought it was good, maybe great, especially the last scene. I was ready to sort of write off the movie until those looks at the end.... Well, not write off the movie, but I thought it started out pretty damn good and halfway through felt like a different movie.

I have to say though, as of now... (after having seen the film) I don't really see any nominations whatsoever for this movie. I'm not writing it off my Oscar lists and predictions completely but if the end of the year turns out to be as strong as things are shaping up or looking to be, I don't think this will get that much consideration unless it gets a heavy push from NEw Line and that will only happen if The NEw World tanks at the box office and with critics.

I'm not saying the perfromances weren't good enough or the film itself isn't worthy enough. I think there are alot of factors going into it and at this point I don't see it creating much of a storm at the Oscars!

Updated:

A History of Violence continues to get impressive reviews.

I did this last year I think, or the year before, I'm not sure...
About every week, I rank how I think the Best Picture race is shaping up to look. It's not what I think will actually be the final five, but how, in my view, each movie stands or ranks in its chances or likeliness ot get nominated...

9/26/05

01. Jarhead
02. Walk the Line
03. Borkeback Mountain
04. Munich
05. Memoirs of a Geisha
06. Good Night, and Good Luck
07. All the King's Men
08. The New World
09. North Country
10. A History of Violence
11. Crash
12. King Kong
13. the Producers
14. Match Point
15. In Her Shoes

It got really blurry after 10... too hard to really stick to a list this early in the race so don't take it too seriously. It's just my opinion of the standing of the best picture contenders now.

Ummm. I would speak to the audience in general because I think Ray (however good or bad it may be) is just as, if not more beloved and influential to a certain market. I know it makes Dr. Lecter feel horrible, but people really love this fricken movie. I have no idea why.


I would consider Moulin Rouge one of the best films of the decade, however I see absolutely no evidence of it being considered a universal masterpiece outside its core audience.

I would say, in the long run, Ray has much more of an impact, even if it's just a racial/acting thing. A lot of people think it should have won Best Picture.


I don't mind this, but when you throw out justifications (like the RT one) and they aren't fair then we are going to say something. It's nothing against you personally.

96% COTC for History of Violence. Thats damn good.

The reviews for A History of Violence have been amazing.
I just don't see it as that strong of a contender though. But if The New World tanks critically and financially it's prospects will start to look up. And if at least one of the big Oscar hopefuls (Munich, Geisha, Jarhead) disappoint, the field will get a bit more competitive.

I think Viggo could snag a nomination as well as Maria Bello for Supporting Actress.
William Hurt was pretty good, but his role was no longer than 10 minutes and half of it was swearing in and screaming in an angry tone!
But, at this point... there doesn't seem to be any indications that either of these 3 are close to locks in their respective categories. Then again, I think both the supporting categories are a huge question mark now!

New Line has an interesting balancing act. Two respected directors. One came out and is a pretty big critical success, with realistic acting/direction/picture possibilities... but it came out (basically) in early October. The other doesn't get a release until Christmas, and only limited at that, it stars a lead who's taken some hits recently (Ferrell) but is more of an epic, with potentially impressive technical aspects. If The New World is good then this gets vastly more complicated.

Of course, as New Line, you try to push them both. But when push comes to shove... who?

I'm not so sure on Mortensen, but he is in the running. Bello and Hurt have excellent chances at this point.

Yes, I agree, nothing with A History of Violence is a lock, but the reviews are giving it a very strong chance to get some notice, and I do believe it's going to be pushed for all it's worth by the studio if it's their best shot at a winner.

UPDATED:

A History of Violenece remains strong, and The Squid and the Whale continues to be one to watch.

http://www.oscarwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7800

Current Odds: ¦All odds are subject to change¶
Best Motion Picture:¶
Jarhead 7/2¶
Munich 6/1¶
Brokeback Mountain 7/1¶
The New World 10/1¶
The White Countess 12/1¶
Memories of a Geisha 12/1 ¶
Cinderella Man 15/1 ¶
Walk the Line 15/1 ¶
All the King?s Men 20/1 ¶
Elizabethtown 25/1 ¶
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit http://www.betwwts.com .¶

BURN.

You should read the fine print, huh?

http://oscarwatch.com/

Thanks to Eddie Lives in the forum for the list -- keep in mind that odds THIS early usually bode badly for the selected films. Nonetheless, here they are, the way the oddsmakers expect things to go for best pic:

A History of Violence jumped two tenths today to wind up at 8.1/10. It's CotC a pretty amazing 8.4/10. The most impressive feat here is it has those ratings with 115 reviews!

Yikes. Let no one say that this one has been lukewarm with the critics. Anything over 8.0 is pretty darned critically acclaimed.

89% for History of Violence, thats a raise as well. Its doing amazing.

My newspaper gave it 5 stars. Out of the last 3 years I've been reading it, I've only seen them give one other movie 5 stars. The ET reissue. So just wow. This is now riding high on the BP list, for sure. Viggo will get a nom too most likely.

I updated the chart and added another contender, Capote.

Nice so far for Good Night and Good Luck as well.

I added Capote earlier, which looks to be a film to watch. With the reviews, it's bound to get some notice, probably for Hoffman and Keener more than the film, but the movie can't be discounted.

Mav, did you consciously exclude The Constant Gardener? If so, why? I understand it doesn't have much of a chance at BP (though I do think it has a better chance than Crash and Cinderella Man), but it's reviews are just as good as most of those others:

FRESH READING: 82%

Reviews counted: 141
Fresh: 115 Rotten: 26
Average Rating: 7.6/10

COTC: FRESH 91%
Avg. Rating: 8.2/10

No, I didn't forget, I'm just adding them as I go, so I'll get that one added to the chart. I'm actually seeing it this week, possibly tomorrow.

Cool. It's really quite good.

Damn, if only a History of Violence had opened later, I think it would be a good pick for a Best Picture nomination. It has a 90% at RT with a STRONG 8.1 rating (94% and 8.4 with COTC too). Plus it has opened well wide, and could continue to expand or do extremely well legs wise.

I don't think it will be remebered come Oscar time though because of the release date. Why didn't they open this later? Or does actually have no Oscar chances, and I'm wrong? I just don't see anything else impressing yet in terms of Oscar potential. It's been a really crappy year, really.

PEACE, Mike.

October (which is when this movie will be mostly playing in) isn't a horrible month for releasing Oscar vehicles, it's just not November or December.


I would say it has at least 3 realistic chances in acting. Bello, Hurt and Mortensen, in that order.

The thing that hurts its picture chances are screenplay. It wasn't bad, but it wasn't very showy in that department. It really is more of a film about the performances.


Yeah, it really has, which is why I still can't completely rule out the Academy going crazy and nominating something like King Kong or March of the Penguins.

Anything to make it interesting... the problem with all the rest of the films coming out is that they all feel cut from the same cloth. But even the foreigns and the indies are not that great this year!