I thought of Star Trek as well, but the main difference is that The Force Awakens is a bona fide phenomenon. Had Star Trek made $700+ million, it might have been nominated. It's not like it was extremely far off, it got a PGA nom afterall.

I think the main difference is that Star Trek is still seen more as a TV property IMHO. There's a way bigger uphill battle for it to be nominated than SW which was Hollywood all along.

I also do think being released in December does help in such case when the film is a phenomenon, like it was the case for Titanic, LOTR, and Avatar.

Has Star Wars done well at any smaller awards shows I don't know about?

No one has seen it in time aside from AFI.

It is certainly getting a PGA nomination.

If it gets a nod, it's the end of the Academy's credibility.

For the record, we're basing its Oscar nod off its box office? Because plenty of better reviewed films of its type have missed nominations

And just the beginning of zwack-shaming.

zwackerm, why don't you organize or host hour own award show here on WOKJ. You can call them the zWACKOs.

There will be the WOKJ MP Awards here soon and TFA will do well there. Though judging by the response in the critics thread, it will not win BP.

Hopefully IO and not Mehd Max.

Great idea!!!!!! I'm actually considering this now. Would it be allowed? Absolutely no Mad Max.

You do realise that CRASH won the Best Picture Oscar, right?

Well they both are better films.

A repost from another forum, I wrote this back in early November. I would now include a 5th film, Mad Max: Fury Road and lower Joy's chances. The latter can still surprise and spark a fire, but I'm cautious. And the former is absolutely killing it in the early rounds of the award season with surprise critic wins and big nominations.

It's becoming clear that there are only 4 films with any real chance at winning Best Picture

Spotlight - I'd rank this the lowest because it's the least likely to win Best Director and while splits do happen and have happened recently, it's still not wise to predict splits. Tom McCarthy could even find himself without a BD nomination, behind Inarritu, Scott, Haynes, QT, DOR, Miller, Spielberg... On the otherhand, it's also the film that's least likely to have detractors. It's a safe choice for vanilla voters.

The Force Awakens - Like McCarthy, JJ has a uphill battle for any type of Oscar recognition for himself. However, Star Wars could find itself in the hunt fort Best Picture much like Avatar or The Lord of the Rings trilogy, particularly the latter. The Force Awakens could be seen as a reverse Return of the King, whereas ROTK's success was based largely in part to the accumulative triumph of the previous LOTR entries and ROTK as a rousing finale, TFA could be sold to Oscar voters as a winner 40 years in the making, the most zeitgeist-y of zeitgeist cinema. It's also worth noting this is likely the only chance of awarding Star Wars a Best Picture Oscar, as we're set/doomed to see a new Star Wars film every year until a time whereas cinema ceases to exist. The uniqueness of Star Wars will very soon disappear, so it's now or never. For this film to have any shot, it absolutely 100% has to dethrone Avatar as the biggest film in history. And even if that happens, TFA also has to be good, if not great film.

The Martian - Winning Best Picture is all about numbers and The Martian has them all. Likely wide support across all branches, a killer cast, an overdue director and return to form for Sir Ridley Scott, the almost but not quite Oscar gold for Gravity (cracking the sci-fi ceiling), and a great response from critics and audiences alike. The Martian would actually be a sure thing winner if Damon were a frontrunner but alas, that Oscar is Leo's.

Joy - The film most likely to win assuming everything falls into place. JLaw is a frontrunner, DOR has directed 3 BP/BD nominated films in a row, all were commercial hits, all were widely supported throughout the AMPAS (25 nominations, 3 wins).

I think it has become pretty clear that only Spotlight can win this.

The SAG Ensemble track record is too good.

Also Miller

Dr. Lecter, I know you are predicting a nod, but do you honestly think it deserves a nod? Honestly?

Doc does. Are you kidding me!? He is the film's biggest fan on these boards besides BJ.

Ask me that when I have seen it more than once. No one can judge this film correctly after the first viewing.

If it makes you feel better, I still think Inside Out should win Best Picture (of course it won't).

After years like Boyhood and The Social Network losing and Argo coming out of nowhere, I'm not going to give it to Spotlight yet, despite near 20 year SAG streak weird stuff happens (like Argo) and it's possible that streak could be broken, just unlikely

Working backwards, Spotlight doesn't have the widespread support to win BP. It's not winning any techs, acting wins are seemingly out. So that leaves Screenplay as the only real possibility. In a year like this, 2 wins ain't enough to take the top prize.

My bullshit meter is whirring.

I wrote that before seeing the film and right after it. Most people actually liked Episode I after the first viewing (though I did not) and came to revise that opinion within the weeks and months that followed.

SAG is one thing.

Then we have the Globes, where Spotlight is the only film with Picture/Director/Screenplay noms.

And then there is also the lack of alternatives. Academy is not gonna award BP to Mad Max, The Martian or Star Wars. And Carol simply does not appear to have enough support.