I feel like Leo either wins or doesn't get nominated. With the amount of people calling it his best performance it's surprising he's not in the catbird seat for the win already but I could see it going that way by the end. It's not like he has to beat DDL in Lincoln either. Slave's reward can be BP/BD

No way will The Wolf of Wall Street resonate strongly enough with the Academy for him to win. Do not confuse online film fans masturbating to the film with everyone believing it his best performance or film.

It is Ejiofor vs. Dern for the win. Maybe McConaughey has an outside shot, too.

Leo will win.

He won't and that is such a fucking shame. This is easily his best performance and he is my favorite actor. It should be locked and it is possible he won't even got a nomination.

How I see it now:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. Nebraska
6. Her
7. The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Blue Jasmine

11. Saving Mr. Banks
12. The Butler

Right now the four big categories seem very clear

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Steve McQueen
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o

This looks like the most likely outcome. Best Director and Best Supporting Actress are the nly ones that I could see changing (to Cuarón and Squibb or Lawrence respectively), but doubt they will.

Do y'all also think that the above will happen?

As for the screenplays, 12 Years a Slave is set to win Adapted, whereas Original seems like the only really close race (between Her, American Hustle and Nebraska as the dark horse).

Gravity should sweep most tech catehories (Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Editing/Mixing should be easy wins).

I believe Dern is strongly in contention for Best Actor, though Ejiofor is the frontrunner.

Has Dern won anything yet except for Cannes? It seems like he is third in the race, behind Ejiofor and McConaughey.

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association gave him their best-actor prize.

But my belief in him is buoyed by more the fact he is a long-term veteran (previously nominated for Coming Home, the star of the final film by Alfred Hitchcock, etc.) delivering a major performance which reflects his advanced age in a melancholy, profound way. I am reminded of Christopher Plummer in Beginners.

HHere's the thing:I believe it is far easier to win for something that you have described in the supportig category.

I don't really see even a 10% chance of anyone upsetting Ejiofor. To paraphrase Eddie Murphy from Bowfinger: He plays a slave who gets his ass whipped. He's winning.

Oh, I do agree Ejiofor is significantly in the lead. Dern is just the only other one where I can imagine a scenario, however far a stretch, in which he wins.

yep

It is 12 Years a Slave vs. American Hustle for Best Picture. Nothing else in the game.

Yeah, I'm feeling American Hustle as the front runner

12 Years a Slave is still the frontrunner for Picture. Director is still between McQueen and Cuaron.

Think Blanchett is definitely winning the Oscar now. GG is one chance where the tide could have started shifting toward Bullock.

Supporting Actor is set as well, but Actor and Supporting Actress are up in the air.

I wouldn't say supporting is set. Fassbender still has a shot. We will have to see what happens at the SAG to see for sure. The SAG awards will give us really better idea for the Oscars.

Think we'll get another situation where nothing wins over 4 Oscars like last year.

He doesn't.

I think the Globes actually changed very little about the race.12 Years a Slave disappointed, but not a single other film actually came out really strong. Gravity won just one award as well and American Hustle couldn't get Screenplay or Director.

I also think that Ejiofor is still winning the Oscar. It's clear that the HFPA just wasn't very down on 12 Years a Slave.

12 Years didn't get any other GG wins, right? Imagine the thinking.

"12 Years as a Slave is the best picture!"

"Must have been best directed, huh?"

"No."

"Oh, well, clearly its actors won."

"No, they all lost."

"Screenplay?"

"Nope."

"Sound? Costumes? Music?"

"Nada."

"Ah. Well..."

They do not give awards for costumes or sound mixing/editing.

But they didn't win any of those either, now did they?

Heh! Good point. Still, the point I was making was this: Can a picture win Best Picture Oscar without winning a single other award?

Has that happened? I can't find the answer with a quick search...

Grand Hotel...just off the top of my head?

As Lecter pointed out to me, at GG, it's not that uncommon. The last time it happened was Babel, which had the most number of nominations as well.