I agree here too. The race seems to be Lawrence v. Chastain (not sure anyone else could really catch fire here...Naomi Watts, possibly?), but Lawrence will have the edge.

Anne gets best supporting for bats, jlaw for slpb! She is adore in that.

The last cut of Django Unchained from a couple of weeks ago was 3 hours and 12 minutes. Apparently they are coming down to the wire trying to do edits and/or re-order stuff.

So many of the major contenders this year are very, very long, with the notable exception of Silver Linings Playbook.

Moonrise Kingdom has had a very good awards showing so far. I mean, yes, it was in two places where it should have done well (Indie Spirits and Gotham), but I think there's a strong shot at a Best Picture nomination. It has critical praise, strong box office, and is Focus' only real push this season.

Fox Searchlight's Oscar lineup is a bit lean this year by their usual standard. Hitchcock might score a Best Actress nomination. The Sessions might score two acting nominations (or at least one; I can't see Hunt missing out in a slightly soft category). Beasts of the Southern Wild is a wild card. So they are still in the picture, but not in the way they were in 2010 (127 Hours/Black Swan) or last year with The Descendants and The Tree of Life.

I guess Fox will be pushing Life of Pi...

I'm not expecting Django or Hobbit to be major Awards contenders (other than supporting and tech). I think Django will be great (its QT after all) and alot of fun and a big hit but probably not a contender like Basterds due to the quality field.

Indeed. Great scene but although he is good overall - the rest of his screentime isnt anything special.

The bizarre thing is that his first scene is so much stronger than either of his confrontations with M. Blame the screenplay, I suppose.

The world premiere of The Hobbit is today in New Zealand. It's ~9:15pm in NZ. Surely they must have started the screening by now? Anyone know what time it was supposed to have started? When will we start to see reaction on Twitter?

Isn't The Hobbit almost three hours long? Should take awhile...

First tweets from the screening (including one from Bryan Singer):

http://forums.theonering.com/viewtopic. ... 2&t=104620

Django Unchained's final running time: 2 hours, 45 minutes.

Meaning this, Les Mis, The Hobbit and Zero Dark Thirty are all about 2:45.

Django screened for the first time last night to very enthusiastic reactions. I can't remember the last year every high-profile contender met or exceeded expectations when it screened.

Me neither. Terrific year.

Exactly my thought. Incredible year.

And the competition for our KJ movie awards will be more insane, considering we're certainly not going to shy away from Skyfall and we only get 5 nominees.

Though I would also advise a bit of a wait-and-see attitude in regard to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Django Unchained, and even Les Misérables. The tide could turn to a certain degree as more and more critics see these films. The absolute earliest screenings and the privileged, if you will, people in them are primed to be positive and create a sensation on Twitter.

My thoughts exactly. You can never be too sure on first screenings. Look what happened to Basterds. It was supposedly a total mess of a movie based on Cannes reactions with both good and terrible being thrown around. Then the official release date came and it ended up being a terrific movie.

ZDT is 2:45?? Seems...unneeded.

Which would be sad (providing all these year end films are actually great).

Tarantino films are long in general, though, so no surprise. The average is around 127 minutes. Django Unchained is just a few minutes longer than Inglourious Basterds.

ZDT =/= Django Unchained

...

Django's gonna wreck it!

I could have sworn he said Django... Strange. Disregard my reply. Maybe I was conflating his post and Libs'.

Zero Dark Thirty depicts a complex, controversial, ten-year international manhunt and subsequent military operation. A two hour and 45 minute length is justifiable, I bet.

I don't think so actually... I think it'll be a very close race.