somewhere in japan, a brown man is not happy

My Predictions:

Best Picture – Drama
“Babel”
“Bobby”
“The Departed”
“Little Children”
“The Queen”


Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
“Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
“The Devil Wears Prada”
“Dreamgirls”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“Thank You for Smoking”


Best Actor – Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Departed”
Peter O’Toole, “Venus”
Will Smith, “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”


Best Actress – Drama
Penélope Cruz, “Volver”
Judi Dench, “Notes on a Scandal”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Sherrybaby”
Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
Kate Winslet, “Little Children”


Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
Johnny Deep, “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Kinky Boots”
Aaron Eckhart, “Thank You for Smoking”
Will Ferrell, “Stranger than Fiction”


Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Annette Bening, “Running with Scissors”
Toni Collette, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Beyoncé Knowles, “Dreamgirls”
Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”
Renee Zellweger, “Miss Potter”


Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck, “Hollywoodland”
Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson, “The Departed”
Brad Pitt, “Babel”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”


Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “The Devil Wears Prada”
Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
Adriana Barraza, “Babel”
Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel”


Best Director
Clint Eastwood, “Flags of Our Fathers”
Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears, “The Queen”
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel”
Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”


Best Screenplay
“Babel”
“Little Children”
“Notes on a Scandal”
“The Departed”
“The Queen”

Best Original Score
“Babel”
“The Da Vinci Code”
“The Fountain”
“Nomad”
“The Painted Veil”


Best Original Song
“Bobby”
“Dreamgirls”
“Happy Feet”
“The Pursuit of Happyness”


Best Foreign Language Film
“Apocalypto”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“The Lives of Others”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Volver”


Best Animated Film
“Cars”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”

Sheryl Crow's "Try Not to Remember" from "Home of the Brave" is the fifth song nominee.

45/68. Okay, I guess. Score and Song did hurt...

Aretha Franklin & Mary J. Blige

Nomination tallies, as I like to do.

Babel (7 noms) and The Departed (6 noms) are the big winners of the morning, getting the whole package, including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and several acting nominations. The Queen held it's own with a showing in all the major categories: Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay. Several other films did well.

Little Miss Sunshine made a weak showing here, indicating it may not be as strong as thought, and Dreamgirls missed out on a couple biggies, including Director, though still fared well overall. Letters from Iwo Jima nabbed Best Picture and Best Director, but received no support anywhere else.

Babel (7)
Best Picture - Drama
Best Director - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Adriana Barraza
Best Supporting Actress - Rinko Kikuchi
Best Screenplay
Best Original Score

The Departed (6)
Best Picture - Drama
Best Director - Martin Scorcese
Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actor - Jack Nicholson
Best Supporting Actor - Mark Wahlberg
Best Screenplay

Dreamgirls (5)
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Best Actress - Beyonce Knowles
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson
Best Original Song

The Queen (4)
Best Picture - Drama
Best Director - Stephen Frears
Best Actress - Helen Mirren
Best Screenplay

Little Children (3)
Best Picture - Drama
Best Actress - Kate Winslet
Best Screenplay

Notes on a Scandel (3)
Best Actress - Judi Dench
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett
Best Screenplay

The Devil Wears Prada (3)
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Best Actress - Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actress - Emily Blunt

Volver (2)
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Actress - Penelope Cruz

Borat (2)
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Best Actor - Sacha Baron Cohen

Letters from Iwo Jima (2)
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Director - Clint Eastwood

Bobby (2)
Best Picture - Drama
Best Original Song

Little Miss Sunshine (2)
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Best Actress - Toni Collette

Thank You for Smoking (2)
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Best Actor - Aaron Eckhart

Peace,
Mike.

I did well.

I had a feeling Dreamgirls would miss both Screenplay and Director but didn't stick my neck out to predict them. I still consider it a nomination lock, but missing BP entirely Cold Mountain style won't surprise me.

They clearly loved Babel and The Departed, pretty much nominating them in everything conceivable.

The BD nom for Frears is great news to further establish The Queen as a lock. Along with Babel and The Departed, they are the only ones with Picture/Director/Screenplay noms.

Going to be a lot of vote-splitting with the double nominees either for the same person or from the same film.

My predictions:

Best Picture – Drama
“The Departed”

Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
“Dreamgirls”

Best Actor – Drama
Peter O’Toole, “Venus”

Best Actress – Drama
Helen Mirren, “The Queen”

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, “Babel”

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”

Best Screenplay
“The Queen”

Best Original Score
“Babel”

Best Original Song
“Dreamgirls”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Letters from Iwo Jima”

Best Animated Film
“Happy Feet”

And 3 nominations for Mirren; what a year she has had.

emily blunt yay

MM, sleep felt gooooood.

As for these noms, uh, what the?

-The only way Babel can get killed at this point is with a DGA snub (Cold Mountain was killed by it), and I worry that ain't happening.
-Hollywood really, really loves Clint. And they felt so bad for dissing him about FOOF that they nominated him for that too!
-Dreamgirls is hurt badly. However, as with Babel, the only thing that can put the last nail in the coffin for me is a DGA snub.
-Bobby is still at 43% on RT and has no visible supporters. It's not going farther than this.
-Surprised no one has mentioned Little Children. Those 3 noms are nice, and might finally get Winslet in so she can lose again.
-Emily Blunt? Not that I'm complaining, but. . .random.
-Clint, Mirren (In Miniseries-Actress) and Leo make for three double nominees, and Mirren a triple nominee. Jesus H. Christ on a Stick. As for Leo, the double noms here and at the BFCA are going to be the death of him. Sacha for Actor!
-Wait, Gosling is probably dead too.
-LMS gets two noms, one for somebody with little-to-no shot at the Oscars. Not good, not good.
-The Nicholson/Wahlberg double nom makes things interesting. Now they just need to both get in at SAG and Wahlberg will be lookin' good.
-This also slows down the slowly speeding trains of O'Hara and Hounsou in the supporting categories, even if the GLobes almost never match up 5/5.
-I'm kicking LMS and Breslin out of my predictions, and replacing them with Babel and Kicoochi. :sigh:

I hate it when the race gets f***************cked up for the worse.

Oh, please.


The only possible comparison in the last decades is Cold Mountain. Not gonna happen again soon...

Thing is, the two other contenders for the final slot (LMS, UA93) just got F'ed in the A' by HFPA. the other one got 7 nominations.

So:

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen

Look to be the new general consensus predictions.

Surprised you aren't rejoicing more about UA93's total snubbage.

Okay then!

The following people got double noms:

Toni Collette (Tsunami/LMS)
Emily Blunt (Prada/Gideon's Daughter)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Tsunami/Kinky Boots)
Annette Bening (Mrs. Harris/Scissors)
Clint Eastwood (FOOF/Iwo Jima)
Beyonce (Actress/Song)
Leo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond/Departed)

Here's to repetition!

Good things: Clint double nod, Little Children, Bobby, no Dreamgirls dir. nom, Emily Blunt, Grey, Heigl, Lilly
Bad things: no U93, no Flags BD, Children of Men, Breslin, Goslin
WTF: Mirren triple-nod, Nomad score

Maverikk said over at BOM that he just owned a lot of people this morning.

Other than Bobby, I fail to see what he thinks he owned us on. Unless he feels Bobby's nom will get it in.

If he was referring to GG, both Levy and Tapley predicted it too; if he was referring to Oscar, well, Bobby isn't going to get nominated.

Mav is probably also jumping in joy to see Hollywoodland's nom; unfortunately, that won't translate to Oscar either.

At the Globes, or Oscars?

Levy predicted it, and Xiayun had it in his alternates.

Globes do not = Oscars.

Well, he and Jack were the only two to also get in for BFCA, so he IS a major contender.

Still, his lock statement about Diane Lane. . .

In that case we deserve to eat no crow. It has as much a shot at Picture as The Devil Wears Prada.

My predictions:

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Babel
The Departed
The Queen

5/3

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Borat
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine

5/4

Best Motion Picture - Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

It's easy in that way 3/3

Best Actor - Drama
Leo DiCaprio, The Departed
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

5/4

Best Actress - Drama
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sherrybaby
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Kate Winslet, Little Children

High Five

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Johnny Depp, Pirates 2
Aaron Eckhart, Thank You for Smoking
Will Ferrell, Stranger Than Fiction

5/4

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening, Running with Scissors
Beyonce Knowles, Dreamgirls
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Renée Zellweger, Miss Potter

5/4

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel

5/3

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

5/3

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Flags of our Fathers
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

6/4, I said so, Clint-power

Best Screenplay
The Departed
Little Children
The Queen

5/3

Best Foreign Language Film
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Volver

5/4

Best Original Score
Babel

5/1

Best Original Song
Listen, Dreamgirls
The Song of the Heart, Happy Feet

5/2

67/47 70% , not so good

Random Globes Fact: This is Renee Zellweger's sixth nomination in seven years, and Johnny Depp's fourth in a row.

Gosling isn't dead by a long shot. We know GG loves big-name stars, and a film with no starpower is at a distinct disadvantage (same for United 93). Leo isn't allowed to be nominated twice at Oscar, so that automatically opens up a spot, and Gosling is in a stronger position for that than any other contenders.

Good showing by Little Children and no viable alternative emerging mean Winslet's hold on the last spot in Actress has become stronger.

If Babel continues this surge, we could be looking at 5/5 match for BP/BD again. Actually, I'd argue Condon becomes the most vulnerable one especially since individual branch votes its own nominees, and there are a lot of highly-respected directors in contention. Imagine if Dreamgirls got the most noms but missed BD.

Even though the contenders have been shrinked down to about 7 again this early on, this is still shaping up to be an interesting race.

Has there a film that missed Director and Screenplay at Globes but went on to win BP at Oscar?

Nashville holds the record for most noms with 10 (four in Supporting Actress) and won only Song (IMO, it deserved everything else).

Don't lose hope!