Best Actor Predictions - 2005
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dar
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 9:01 pm Posts: 1702
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andaroo wrote: dar wrote: My take: Yes, It creates a problem. But not cause they are scared of the repercusions, but because they may be scared themselves at the subject matter. Hmmm. Do you think it would manifest itself stronger in the nomination stage or the voting stage? Of the remaining people do you think enough would (theoretically) have passion for the film to make it one of their 3 choices?
I think It would show in the "The nomination is the award" kind of way. You know, like when they decide that, for a small film or a new unknown actor, being there Oscar night enjoying the show is enough reward.
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:15 am |
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dar
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 9:01 pm Posts: 1702
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andaroo wrote: I'm talking about people referencing this movie when gay marriage comes into being (which IMO, is bound to happen) or similar social movement. I don't think it will become a notable landmark in the movement of gay rights in this country. Comparison: For all the ink spilled on The Passion of the Christ it really didn't... do anything. I don´t think that comparison actually works. "Passion" wasn´t trying to fight for christian rights, or show to anyone that christians love too, and they are not vile perverts. It was a whole different beast altogether. Regardless, I don´t know if It did anything individually, or don´t you think that some people may have reinforced their beliefs or youngsters get interested in christianity because of it? I´m not so sure... or maybe I´m just naif and believe not in "the power of cinema", but in cinema having some kind of power, yes. andaroo wrote: I do think the Newsweek article/review was angling for that, yes. Maybe, but I think It´s clear that such term is pretty ambiguos, to say the least. andaroo wrote: Well, all I have to say is that no film that can be released can ever have impact on my life and no films that I live my life around. I'm talking about the way I interperet the world, political opinions or outlook. I guess I just view them as stories and entertainment that augment life in aspects. I know of no one who is impacted such.
I will say that maybe you have something there. Some kid will go see Brokeback and figure since popular actors can be in a gay movie that he can come out of the closet. Maybe the impact does exist for this film on a personal scale.
Not nationally though. Agree. But people make a country. And you don´t need to actually go and see the movie to check out that popular actors can play gay and get awards for it and It´s no big deal. I don´t think movies per se and on their own can start big political movements, but they can help, you know. America has become more tolerant of homosexuality in the last 30 years and I do not think It´s because of "Will and Grace" and Ian McKellen, but they both sure helped. A big profile Oscar film dealing with a gay romance wouldn´t hurt, either. andaroo wrote: Because it is the nature of awarding art. It is the nature of the Oscars. You can see it in politics, you can see it in the 50 million dollar Oscar campaigns. It's a factor of every award show. We don't actually think the American Music Awards awards the "best in music" do we? Yeah, but politics is not the only factor. (Please bear in mind that, right now, I think BBM will be nominated but doesn´t stand a chance to win BP) andaroo wrote: Shawshank wasn't about controversy, it just represented "another film" that dealt with male relationships. You are the one who mistook the line and it was clarified. Comparing "Shawshank" and "Brokeback" is like comparing apples and oranges, really. Again, there were many factors in it not winning BP, and the male relationship wasn´t amongst them(There was a list in another of my posts) . Just my opinion, of course. andaroo wrote: If I called it a political drama, that's wrong. If I said it had an agenda, then yeah. What was the agenda behind "The hours"? Just cause a film has gay or lesbian characters It has an agenda? andaroo wrote: I'm saying that Hollywood is a business, and the Oscars promote that business (which they do, no question). Yes, But as I said, I do not think awarding BBM with BP would be bad for bussiness in any way. People would still go to see movies they are interested in, ignore the rest. andaroo wrote: I think the word "boycott" is strong, because I don't see it happening as directly (although some are likely to bring it up). I see it as part of the falling off of Box Office Receipts. I see the warning signs like Universal chiefs and Disney losing money as a pull away from films like Brokeback Mountain and towards more appealing pictures.
I'm saying that the Oscars do not exist in a vacuum, and that they care about their falling ratings and the effect they have on films. I think you do overstimate such effects. The slump in the BO will continue or not, but I don´t think it´ll be affected by an Oscar for "Brokeback mountain". In other words, I can´t see anyone saying: "Let´s not go to see that movie, cause Hollywood has showed to be out of touch with us". People not go to see movies cause the ones that may be out there are not in touch with them, not because of a general preception taken from an awards show. andaroo wrote: It definately helped Million Dollar to cross 100 and maybe The Aviator for that last push, and Ray on DVD was pretty big. Even Sideways landed at 70 million thanks in large part to it's Oscar (and pre-Oscar awards) buzz. Yes, but a movie that does not make $100M before Oscar Night, It´s not a "fucking money machine", as I put it... andaroo wrote: The Passion of the Christ alienated me, but didn't change me. It didn't change what I thought about Christians. It was just a movie. Yes, but you are you, and that doesn´t have to be the case for everybody, not even for most people. BBM wil probably alienate a lot of people who don´t agree with homosexuality, but for some others It may can help them see things from a different perspective. I am not actually saying "change minds"... although in some cases, It may happen, you know. Not to you or me, but others out there. andaroo wrote: I will have to apologize. I read it in another article, somewhere, and now I can't find the link. So I'll have to withdraw that. No biggie. It can happen to anyone. Still, without knowing the context, that line seemed a bit silly. Many movies before have talked about a strong male relationship, without it being romantic. So, if you find it, we both can agree in that reviewer being a bit of a moron. andaroo wrote: Because, frankly, I think that there are some newspapers (like my own local The Stranger) that do not have trustworthy reviewers and will damn some films and not others for their political content. That's why I do not read the Village Voice. Yeah, but do you read those others I mentioned? andaroo wrote: That wasn't the selling point of the film. The selling point of that film was a sappy drama and a popular book and lots of weeping  . The selling point, the point of interest of Brokeback Mountain is the homosexual relationship (and it's high production value with notable actors... sorry Latter Days). Literary adaption of an acclaimed novel? Check! A weeper? Check? High profile director? Check. Good reviews? Check. An unexplored issue (Gay cowboys)? Check. It is not the only reason, sorry. andaroo wrote: Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Ebert & Roper, New York Times, LA Times, etc. To me, these are the folks that matter (biased or not). There are some independents I go to as well.
Variety and HR already have good reviews of the film out there.
I was going to comment on the "Rolling Stone" review, but if you don´t mind, I´ll move such post to "The contenders" thread, cause we have hickjacked this one enough. 
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:24 am |
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dar
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 9:01 pm Posts: 1702
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BJ wrote: Still debating even after pheonix locked it up 
Moving on to the best actor discussion  ... I do not think Phoenix is that big of a favourite. The frontrunner? Probably. But not a lock, and apparently It also seems that he is not going to campaign at all for it... which could actually matter.
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 9:26 am |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm Posts: 11019
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Phoenix has to be considered the frontrunner, because Capote (and thus Hoffman) never really got any serious traction.
Strathairn is too subtle, and I don't know who to place in slot #5 right now.
The wild card is Ledger. Brokeback hasn't really 'hit' yet. We don't know how it's going to be recieved financially, awards wise, etc. He could be a major figure in this race.
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 11:20 am |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table
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The odd thing for me is that this category is going to be the most *painful* one for me. In other categories I have either one clear preference or no real love for any of the names yet tossed around. But if it comes down to Strathairn and Hoffman for this, I really really want both of them to walk away with the win. Both passed in performances that are poignant and memorable, and both are the kind of underdogs with long track records that really deserve to be recognized for their entire body of work finally. Argh!
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 4:05 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am Posts: 9966
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Ledger is fast gaining on both Pheonix and Hoffman on gleaming raves.
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Tue Nov 29, 2005 4:57 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Okay, as of now I don't think there is a way around Phoenix, Hoffman and Ledger being nominated. Reminds me a bit of last year's Best Supporting Actor category with Church, Owen and Freeman being locks and the other two being more up in the air. I mean, sure Bana is a good call, but actually no one has seen the movie yet.
I would peg Straithairn and Bana as the other two, still.
Alternatives are Clooney and Fiennes.
The win should still be between the three above, UNLESS Bana really blows everyone away.
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Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:30 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am Posts: 9966
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Okay, as of now I don't think there is a way around Phoenix, Hoffman and Ledger being nominated. Reminds me a bit of last year's Best Supporting Actor category with Church, Owen and Freeman being locks and the other two being more up in the air. I mean, sure Bana is a good call, but actually no one has seen the movie yet.
I would peg Straithairn and Bana as the other two, still.
Alternatives are Clooney and Fiennes.
The win should still be between the three above, UNLESS Bana really blows everyone away.
Clooney is supporting for Syriana and Good Luck!
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Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:34 pm |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm Posts: 11019
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Yeah, I hadn't thought about it in those terms, but Best Actor does pretty much seem to be down to those six guys.
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Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Raffiki wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Okay, as of now I don't think there is a way around Phoenix, Hoffman and Ledger being nominated. Reminds me a bit of last year's Best Supporting Actor category with Church, Owen and Freeman being locks and the other two being more up in the air. I mean, sure Bana is a good call, but actually no one has seen the movie yet.
I would peg Straithairn and Bana as the other two, still.
Alternatives are Clooney and Fiennes.
The win should still be between the three above, UNLESS Bana really blows everyone away. Clooney is supporting for Syriana and Good Luck!
Oh...sorry. Thought he was going lead for Syriana.
Well, then Fiennes, Bana and Strathairn...
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Thu Dec 01, 2005 7:41 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40248
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I think it'd be hilarious if Adrian Brody came out of nowhere and dark horsed everyone's ass AGAIN.
I'd say he has a 3% chance or so at this point... 
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Thu Dec 01, 2005 8:00 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Is Clooney confirmed as running for Best Actor and not Best Supporting Actor?
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:35 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Clooney is confirmed to go supporting for Syriana.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:44 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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xiayun wrote: Clooney is confirmed to go supporting for Syriana.
Then we may have our frontrunner.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:49 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Just got back from Walk the Line.
Jaoquin is absolutely wonderful. Recee is "better", but yeah... he would deserve the award if he won it.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:54 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Copote's playing at my local specialty theater. I screwed around and missed out on Broken Flowers, but it'll be on DVD soon.
With all of these critical praises it's tempting to go see this, but it doesn't look like a film that I would enjoy because of the annoying voice. With Hoffman in the Best Actor race, I suppose it's my duty to at least go and be prepared to walk out on it if the voice wears on me too much.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:00 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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That's why I didn't go see it Mav.
Although I'm sure it's wonderful.
When faced with going to see Capote or a film-where-shit-done-got-blowned-up, I think I would choose the later.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:09 am |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am Posts: 9966
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I really don't mean anything personal, but honestly how much more superficial could you guys get?
It's not that big of a deal. You don't even realize it after a third of the movie.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 4:01 am |
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Dkmuto
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 6502
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Thanks for the Brokeback debate, guys. 'Twas actually an interesting read. Feel free to continue.
I really do think, though, that the only thing that's going to keep this from being a Ledger vs. Phoenix (and more or less Hoffman) fight is if Bana's actually really good.
And speaking of Munich, I just heard that despite its 'no promotion' thing, it is getting a lot of screening for critics circles.
We'll see.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:01 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am Posts: 9966
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Dkmuto wrote: Thanks for the Brokeback debate, guys. 'Twas actually an interesting read. Feel free to continue. I really do think, though, that the only thing that's going to keep this from being a Ledger vs. Phoenix (and more or less Hoffman) fight is if Bana's actually really good. And speaking of Munich, I just heard that despite its 'no promotion' thing, it is getting a lot of screening for critics circles. We'll see.
Munich's screenings, as had been planned weeks ago, have started and will continue until its release or until the Oscars.
Universal will still be putting out FYC ads for Munich. What Speilberg meant by not campaigning was that he's not gonna hold any press junkits, any interviews, no late night talk show appearances by him or anyone from the movie.
He doesn't want anyone to hear from the film-makers and judge the film solely on their own.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:13 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Raffiki is right.
"Speilberg" will not campaign for his movie, but Universal/Dreamworks sure as fuck will.
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Sat Dec 03, 2005 2:24 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Are there any FYC ads for Munich already? I haven't seen any.
I think as of now Phoenix is the most likely winner. The only thing that can make me change my mind about this is if Bana gets raves for his Munich performance.
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Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:21 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm Posts: 9566
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Yeah I think it's down to Pheonix or Hoffman. Pheonix is also a former Oscar nominee, so he has that in his column.
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Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:50 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Phoenix is also in a much bigger movie, in a biopic of a generally more popular person...
Hoffman has going for him that the Academy might not want to give the Oscar to an actor portraying a recently deceased singer twice in a row, but I still think that Phoenix is by far the frontrunner as of now.
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Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:05 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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. Eric Bana
. Joaquin Phoenix
. Philip Seymour Hoffman
. Heath Ledger
. David Strathairn
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Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:53 pm |
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