Riiiight...

Word is not good on Changeling, looks like it's slowly but surely taking itself out of best picture and director.

Everything Jolie touches turns into shit...even Clint Eastwood

I hated the trailer for Changeling. I think Gran Torino will be Clint's player this year.

Yeah, I think the lack of really passionate word on it post-festival has sunk it. I'm gonna wait for anything to come up on Gran Torino.

Also, I don't understand why many sites are docking TDK back down. Isn't the re-release in the winter a good indication that WB is really going to push it?

I think I was telling christian last night... I really see Changeling being less and less of an overall player. I wouldn't even be surprised if Jolie gets another snub. The release date is not its friend.

As for Rachel Getting Married... I don't think anything is solid, not even Actress (though of course, it's its best chance). I'm predicting Hathaway, but again, the nominations are more than 3 months away... alot can change. Its weekend PTA is very promising though.

I think Debra Winger's chances are 50/50. I'd say Screenplay has a bit better chance depending on the competition.

Happy-Go-Lucky is at 96% with 28 reviews in.

I definitely see a Best Actress nom and maybe Best Original Screenplay.

Yeah, I'd in fact put Hawkins ahead of Hathaway at this point.

HR , Variety, Screendaily, David Poland reviews are in for W., the reaction is the last thing I wanted to hear... It's neither amazing nor a hilarious trainwreck, it's rather just a pretty good straight forward drama. They mention it feels a bit rushed to get it out before the election. Brolin is getting unanimous praise though, he'll definitely be in contention for a nom even with the hard competition.

Original Screenplay nom tops. Supporting Actor is a weaker category and Brolin has Milk.

Supporting Actor weaker? maybe for nominations, but Ledger is dominating the category perhaps more than Daniel Day last year in the lead category.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

OUCH

http://64.14.20.205/m/1191742_changeling/

I think Best Actress is the only nom it currently has a chance at.


Well maybe also costumes.

oh, weinsteins.

And Changeling is completely out, Lec.

Whoo-hoo, two down?

Reader isn't dead, it just depends on what Daldry comes up in spite of this mess.

I hate the studio!!

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009538-happy-go-lucky/

97% with 62 reviews in.

Best Actress and Original Screenplay should be in, but does it have a shot at anything else?

In the 90s, yes, but now? Eh. It can definitely get multiple major noms, though.

It's the niche indie comedy choice, I think we should definitely fear it.

Rachel Getting Married:
86% (54 fresh 9 rotten), 7.6/10 average
95% COTC with an 8/10
82 on MC with 7 100s

I might pull a Demme nom.

The BFCA is still an issue, it's remained around 71. They don't give any information to how many reviews are in, so I don't really know whether to judge that as final or not. It's such a wtf? score in comparisont to the other sites. It's lower than Appaloosa, Blindness, Flash of Genius, Nick and Norah, and barely above The Lucky Ones (67) and Miracle at St. Anna (69).

RGM also has a very large disparity between RT Top Critics (95%) and the regular critics (78%). I think Academy voters definitely trend more towards the latter group.

On that note though the rottens aren't even coming from regular critics, they're coming from sites that should hardly be on RT at all. MSNBC, Film Freak Central, Can Magazine, Comingsoon.net, About.com, One Guy's Opinion, Metromix.com, Compuserve, Cinemasignals. Mike LaSalle is the only real critic who gave it rotten. (though some more did on MC)

In the end though, I think you're right in the sense that this isn't getting BP. These little dramas don't have the best track record.

I'm in a conundrom, I'm not really feeling Doubt's success from its trailer, but looking over the weakness of their categories Hoffman and Davis seem like easy picks for fill-in nods, and Streep is Streep. Could this movie really get 3 acting noms and still not make it?