1. Oppenheimer
2. Anora
3. CODA
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once

5. Nomadland

4/5 are "representation" picks. Oppenheimer was an anomaly in that regard, American Fiction probably would've fit the theme the most.

Demi Moore's loss will be one that echos for a long time. Feel she's going to be a shoe-in for the next role she has that even has the slightest chance.

The Anora halo with Oscar voters just appeared too strong to beat. Sean Baker became the only person in Oscar history to get 4 wins for 1 movie so its clear the Academy didn't just like Anora, they absolutely LOVED it. Records like that don't just happen by chance.

Also LOL at Brody possibly getting the record for the longest speech for one of the longer Oscar best picture nominees ever that needed an intermission. I saw people joke "was Brody actually finished his speech?"

I think next year has a clear frontrunner in PTA's One Battle After Another. The only thing that would give me pause is it currently has August release date.

Probably trying to get that summer $$$ a la Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Inglorious Basterds.

Not sure If I like the title "One Battle After Another" - feels so generic. Maybe it will be a better fit once we see a trailer.

It has a big budget so I'm sure they are expecting some big QT type late summer BO. I hope it delivers.

The title has already been changed from The Battle of Baktan Cross lol. I think OBAA is easier to market, though it definitely sounds more like a comedy than an epic. The book its based off doesn't seem like something that would cost over $100M. Then again, PTAs most succesful film at the oscars, There Will Be Blood, also seemed to have a misleading title ... until the very end.

It sounds like PTA experimenting with action set pieces like car chases and stuff.

Next 5 Best Picture winners in some order: 3 representation movies (native/trans/wheelchair, etc.), 1 overdue director like PTA/Villaneuve/Tarantino, Hamilton.

PTA, Denis, Tarantino as next three winners would be ideal but it's more likely that only one of the three gets it. The Safde Bros having competing films could be a strong narrative this year. I don't think Hamilton is getting made anytime soon. And while you might consider anything without a cis straight white male lead to be representative, I think those days are over. EEAAO can not be considered a diversity pick when it annihilated the whole awards season as it did. Coda probably is, but it never would have won if released against a stronger BP lineup like. The 2022 oscars had several crappy netflix movies in there since the two best movies of that year were capeshit (Suicide Squad and KJs BP winner No Way Home.)

Feels like After The Hunt is going to be a major award contender.

Ayo, Andrew Garfield, Chloë Sevigny and Julia Roberts in what's supposed to be a career best performance. Add in Luca post Challengers and might be a very flashy campaign. Julia also hasn't won in 25 years and still seems esteemed in the industry so could be a Iron Lady/Judy/Brody type return after 20 years to the Oscar stage. Garfield feels due as well and so I feel like 3-4 actors could get nods in best actress/supporting actress/supporting actor along with director and picture and of course the music.

I checked the odds on draftkings while briefly in Jersey (everything is legal in New Jersey.)

After The Hunt - +600
The Ballad of a Small Player - +700
Hamnet - +700
Highest 2 Lowest - +900
Avatar 3 - +900
The Lost Bus - +1000
Frankenstein - +1100
The Life of Chuck - +1400
One Battle After Another - +1400
Pressure - +1600
Marty Supreme - +1800

Kinda surprising right? I threw a couple buckos down on Battle and Marty at those odds since I expected they would be near the top.

Sinners will be this year's early year blockbuster nominee. Maybe the year they don't nominate Avatar.

There can be multiple.