Finding Neverland
The Aviator
Sideways
Million Dolla Baby
Hotel Rwanda

6. Fahrenheit 9/11
7. Closer
8. Ray
9. Kinsey (if Sideways wasn't in the running...)

I thought this would get easier as time went on, but it really is just getting harder.

I am in consensus with a couple people, though:

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

I think Andaroo has it SPOT ON... unless the academy intentionally throws in a few surprises because they know everybody's predicting the same things...


the Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

up for grabs: Hotel Rwanda, Ray, Finding Neverland

That's it, with Closer and Kinsey just outside threats.

The Aviator
Hotel Rwanda
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

... is a nice little line-up if you ask me. I still don't really think Hotel Rwanda is pulling up enough pre-cursors and Ray is, so Ray is more of a lock than Hotel. I would easily farm out HR's position to another film like Eternal Sunshine or whatever, but it did get a Globe nom so...

Match it, throw out director of Hotel Rwanda and/or Ray (Hackford is a better director contendor than the virtually unheard of Terry George) for Mike Nichols or Mark Forrester. Heck, why not even throw Zhang Yimou in there!

It's quite clear to me that, at this point, The House of Flying Daggers will destroy The Sea Inside in Best Foreign Feature.

I would have said I doubt that but the Sea Inside did not get off to such a big debut this weekend with a very disappointing PTA!

I just came from The Aviator, well actually an hour ago....

What a film. It is late, so I'll post details tomorrow....

But this movie WILL win Best Picture. I can defintely see how Million Dollar Baby can be a threat (and the only threat) but I don't think it will overcome this triumph.

Leonardo DiCaprio will give Foxx a run for his money. DiCaprio delivers one of the best performances of the past few years and the best of his career.

And Cate Blanchet.... WOWOWOWOW!!
she won't win the Oscar because of her previous work. she deserves it this year on the merit of her performance in this film!!! she WILL WIN!

Alec Baldwin and John C Reilley should be considered for Supporting Actor. I don't think they'll get the nominations but they have entered the race!

Eternal Sunshine
Finding Neverland
The Aviator
Sideways

Hotel Rwanda, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, or Kinsey here. Most likely Million Dollar Baby.

What's up with Rotten Tomatoes? It lists Proof, An Unfinished Life, and The Upside of Anger all opening within the next week.I assume that's just a mistake?

Yeah, they've been listed on there for quite some time.

I noticed that today.

I can't believe these thoughtd are actually going through my mind....
But I am seriously considering the possibility of Sideways winning Best Picture.

The fact that we are all saying it's something Oscar would never do is the exact argument I would use! Academy is now constantly trying to push big headlines and open new avenues. They started really opening up to Foreign Films in the past 2 years. They gave into LOTR propganda and they awarded a musical 2 years ago.

Could this be the year of the Indie?

And it is the PERFECT indie! Not a total unkown, but created and directed by a well known and well liked individual. It has strong acting all around and it's not so obscure or abstract to drive away alot of people.

am I crazy or is Sideways seriously vying to get into the competition with Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator???

I think if Eternal sunshine wasn't in play this year, sideways would have a MUCH stronger base and support because it would have gotten ALOT of Sunshine's critic #1's and sweeped all the screenplay handouts throughout the season!

Sideways will probably win the screenplay at Oscar as a consolation prize, similar to the year when Gosford Park won over Memento, but I don't see Sideways winning the whole thing. It will the Globe and probably WGA, but It won't win PGA or DGA, and that doesn't bode well for its chance. From the screenings, it doesn't look like academy members are loving the film. I remember one report was saying they like it a lot, but didn't understand what all the critic love is about. After seeing The Aviator on Saturday, personally I don't see how it can lose. It's grand, epic, beautifully acted, and everything academy likes to honor. It will get the most nominations for sure as well, and as shown in history, that will give it a leg up in the best picture race. Chicago is a crowd pleaser, and so is ROTK, and they were the frontrunners all the way, so honoring them doesn't indicate academy is ready to go for the small indie films. I believe The Aviator will take 6-7 oscars, including picture and director.

Yeah, honestly, when was the last time the movie that won Best Picture made less then 50 million? Even if Sideways won, I couldn't see more then 70 million. Even Braveheart made more (75 million not adjusted for inflation, closer to 90 adjusted).

Right now I'm giving the top five to:

The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways all go without saying. Both Ray and Eternal Sunshine have been off my nomination list until extremely recently. Ray I'm thinking because with Jamie Foxx being such a lock for Best Actor, I can't see them not giving it a Best Picture nomination, especially with so many would be nominees losing steam. A DVD release early next year will only boost it's chances.

Eternal Sunshine was very iffy, but ast time goes on it seeems more and more right. Many would be Oscar contenders are steadily falling off the charts, opening it up the space it needs. Closer, Alexander, I <3 Huckabees, Phantom of the Opera, The Sea Inside, Spanglish, The Life Aquatic, left and right movies that many thought would be Oscar darlings are looking like they'll be left on the sidelines. Focus had Vanity Fair and Motorcycle Diaries both lose steam, so this quickly became there Oscar flagship. It's already the closest thing there is to a lock for Best Original Screenplay (how many critic's circles haven't given that award to it?), and unless The Aviator has a huge sweep, it's going to win. With Kate Winslet getting strong buzz for Best Actress (she might've even had a great chance at winning, were it not for Swank), and some of the best reviews of the year, I really think it's going to be the underdog that gets a spot in here.

Hotel Rwanda might switch spots with Ray, but it's PSA wasn't great, and it's reviews have been fairly strong, but I'm not sure if they're good enough for it to be one of the small films that really breaks out. Don Cheadle will likely get a nomination for Best Actor, and it might get a few more nods here and there, but I'm doubting it in a big way.

Finding Neverland, the other choice nominee many seem to be siding too, in my mind really slid down a few notches. It's box office went nowhere, and it seems to be one of those movies that people love a lot more right when they leave the theater rather then when they think about it later on (I went from a B to C+, my older brother A- to B-, and I remember reading someone else on the forum thinking the same thing, was it you add-rock?). Honestly, it's just a really bland movie, it seems to scream out as too much of an obvious Oscar bait from Miramax. If they're already getting a nomination for Aviator (and they defiintely are), I don't think the Oscars are gonna give them much more. There still seems to be some Miramax backlash in the air in my opinion.

I'd argue that Hotel Rwanda had a pretty good PTA this weekend, because it's a two-day gross. It'd translate to over $20,000 if it had been released on a Friday, on par with Million Dollar Baby.

That's fair I suppose. But I just think it's too little too late. This is being released by United Artists, one of the worst companies to have your film distributed by. It didn't get a lot of attention at the Globes, and hasn't been doing great in critics top 10 lists. If anything is nominated that's not in my top five, this will probably be it, I just think it's an underdog right now, and a big one.

I do also feel the momentum is somewhat building behind Eternal Sunshine. It's in BFCA and AFI's top ten, and although it's overshadowed by Sideways in critic awards, it still got its share. The box office run is also fine, and the new 2-disk DVD is coming out right around the corner. It's one of the 7 films that are still left standing at the present.

I have a feeling that for the first time since the year of Braveheart, Apollo 13, and Sense and Sensibility, we may only have 3 out of 5 BP/BD matches: The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, and Sideways. Don't think Taylor Hackford can get in even if Ray is nominated. Same for Michel Gondry and Terry George. Marc Forster is in best shape after the top 3, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Michael Mann, Mike Nichols, and Zhang Yimou taking two out of the 5 spots. They are very respected in the director branch.

Yeah, I'd definitely agree with this. It would be surprising, but we very well may have Scorsese, Payne, Eastwood, Nichols, and Mann as the BD nominees.

Hotel Rwanda stands at 91% at RT and 93% at Cream of the Crop. This is just slightly worse than The Pianist. I am pretty sure that it will be nominated over Ray.

Nominations:
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda

Win:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind / The Aviator (not sure yet)

Any of the four other nominees would be more likely to win than Eternal Sunshine

Well I know it's more of a wish, but hey maaaaaybe...

1) The Aviator
2) Million Dollar Baby
3) Sideways
4) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
5) Hotel Rwanda

Rwanda is smaller and has not been on many Top 10 lists, but reviews are great and the buzz is building. I feel Finding Neverland has lost steam.

Eternal sunshine will not be nominated for Best Picture.

It has about a 2% chance of being nominated!

If Sideways is gonna be in the top 5, and it is, then there is NO chance for Eternal sunshine.

ABSOLUTELY NONE!!!!

I think the nominees will be, ranked in likelihood of a win....


The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Hotel Rwanda
Ray/Finding Neverland

Raffiki is so anti-Eternal Sunshine.

I don't even believe you that you liked the film.

My dream winner: Garden State
My 2nd dream winner: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
My real winner: The Aviator
My 2nd real winner: Sideways