Reese Witherspoon is no where near the clout Jamie Foxx had at this point last year.
I don't think anyone can reach that amount of buzz and certainty this year as far as awards go. But thhe one that would come closest is Philip Seymour Hoffman, and deservingly so!

Just like the Spider-Man 2 reviews were gushing about it? You see, even though Spider-Man is my favorite, I don't try to make it out to be more than it is, despite my own personal feelings. Spider-Man 2 at least was something that wasn't ripped off from it's original source, and yes, King Kong was, and anybody that says differently is in denial. It's popcorn fun, not a serious film, just like Spider-Man 2 was, and despite glowing reviews.

As far as Reese being in Foxx's league, I'd definitely say she's close, and is as much of a lock as he was. If you remember, the inclusion on Eastwood in the actor's nominations created a bit of doubt with Foxx. Not much, but a bit. That's all the doubt there is about Witherspoon winning.

Well, I don't think Eastwood's nom really put a strain on anything considering he was a surprise nom and everyone knew it was just thrown out there because it's Clint Eastwood.

As for Reese Witherspoon... I'm not denying she was excellent in Line (not that you're implying that I was thinking the opposite) but just about the only reason she is as locked up as she is is because there really aren't many contenders this year and almost no sure noms outside of her.

That's VERY different than Foxx's position last year.

Well, Eastwood had plenty of love thrown his way that a Best Actor nom, something he didn't get at the Globes or anywhere else that I can recall, was cause for thought. Why was it done? It created possibilities that didn't exist and only made Foxx a 99.9999999% lock, and that's close to what Reese is. She's already starting to run away with the critics awards, and nobody is really in line to upset her. She's the standout, just like Foxx was. Phillip S. Hoffman is nowhere near her in terms of frontrunner status. Phoenix and Ledger could easily defeat him. Reese has nobody that's challenging her for the win.

Huffman or Knightley could surprise. At least then it wouldn't be so predictable.

Nice to see Pride & Prejudice get two nominations. Go Keira

Surprised to see Munich left out when it first seemed to be a lock for a BP nomination.

Maria Bello for Best Actress? You've got to be kidding me. That film (AHOV) is terribly overrated and didn't deserve a single nomination.

Surprised at Pierce Brosnan's nomination but it's nice to see at the same time. I hope either he or Jeff Daniels win.

Huffman has an uphill battle to win at the Globes and take that momentum into the Oscars. She just won an emmy for Desperate Housewives and is up for a GG for the role against the other 3 leads. That could well cancel her out, even though I wouldn't call her competition the strongest.

Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)

Kiera Knightly really hasn't earned her stripes the way Witherspoon has, as she only recently came into the spotlight after Pirates of the Carribean. She's also already losing ground to Witherspoon, who is America's sweetheart in a way Knightly isn't, especially since she's not American. I don't see a more broad and showy performance from an actress in the bunch.

Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Laura Linner (Squid and the Whale)
Sarah Jessica Parker (Family Stone)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

So... basing a movie on a comic book is a good idea... but making a trilogy of movies based on a trilogy of books is a bad idea?

huh?

Jen was my favorite Dawson's Creek character. Even on that show she gave a great performance, especially in the finale. I bawled like a baby . I'm so glad Michelle is finally getting the attention she deserves. Oooh, and she has a couple of new movies hitting DVD this month, both of which I'm really looking forward to. The first is The Baxter, which comes out today, and then on December 27th we get A Hole In One.

Anyway, I think Katie Holmes isn't going to have much of a career anymore with Tom Cruise, and I don't care since I've come to not like her at all anymore now that she's with him. They are the worst and most annoying couple in Hollywood. Nicole Kidman was smart to get away from him and look how much more famous she has gotten once getting out of his shadow. Now Michelle Williams should be busier than Katie.

I'm talking about Mav's argument with PJ not doing original stuff and then saying Spiderman is his favorite... ugh

Actually Huffman has an excellent chance just because Paltrow, Theron, and Zhang pretty much have no chance at a win. Bello could be the only one to take it away from her, and I expect it to be Witherspoon vs Huffman at the Oscars anyway.

Great for The Squid and the Whale, this will keep it on the radar and possibly help it get a few Oscar nominations as well.

I don't know how what to think of Munich. Every year there's a film people try to say is not in trouble, and it could just be that not enough people saw it? But it isn't the first awards in which it ends up underperforming, so I don't know?


Crash got a couple of nominations, but I was also expecting picture.

I no longer think Munich is a lock for a nomination in either case so right now it looks like:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Walk the Line
3. Good Night and Good Luck
4/5: Match Point/The Constant Gardner/A History of Violence/King Kong/Munich/Crash/Mrs Henderson Presents (if its box office improves) and a slightttttttt chance for The Squid and the Whale.

There's really no awards show between now and Oscar nominations that will REALLY make things clear as to who's nominated (the only thing that will help is wether Munich gets rave reviews/average/poor it will clear things up on its status a bit) so I think for the first time in a few years we're actually gonna be looking at quite a few surprises when nominations are announced.

Oh and No Joan Allen hmmmm

Huh?

HOW!??!?!

And no Amy Adams.

That gets a big loud BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooo from me!

Witherspoon isn't nearly as popular as she once was (Just Like Heaven kind of bombed). Plus, it's kind of biased to say that Knightley won't win just because she's not American. That seems just wrong in so many ways.

Because the story was original and there were even changes made. Peter didn't meet MJ until college, for instance. The story itself, besides the origin and Uncle Ben getting killed, was a very VERY liberal adaption. That's not the case with anything Jackson has done with LOTR and King Kong. Is that clearer?

I would rather have a movie that is true to source material than a movie that screws with it.

Joe, you have clearly trolled around making one shitty comment after another concerning Witherspoon, so I guess that comment was expected, but you really need to learn what a bomb is if you think Just Like Heaven bombed.

And I didn't say she wouldn't win because she's not American, I said she wasn't America's sweetheart because she wasn't American, and that's a fact.

Just Like Heaven:
Budget - 58 million
Gross - 48 million. How's it not a dud when it couldn't even make its budget? Sweet Home Alabama made 135 million back when Reese was America's Sweetheart.

You can't penalize Knightley just because she's not American though. Plus, she's ten years younger than Witherspoon so I'd say she's actually ahead of the game because she's younger than Witherspoon was when she received her first nomination (For Election).

Joe, I mean this in the nicest way of ocurse , but you come off as one of the most biased person on this forum from what I've read so far...at least when it comes to making any kind of awards prediction.

Everyone is biased by virtue of having an opinion. Plus, if I was really biased I wouldn't have admitted that Walk the Line was a good film. Knightley just gave a better performance than Witherspoon. If anything, Mav is just as biased because of his love for Walk the Line at the expense of any other film.

Reese Witherspoon has never been nominated.

And young age is soemthing that works against you when it comes to Oscars. The numbers of under 21 actresses that have been nominated for lead actress can be counted on one hand, and in fact, I can only think of two at this very moment.

Reese Witherspoon might be older but many feel that at this point in her career she has earned it, with performances like the one in Election. Knightley has really done nothing award worthy prior to Pride and Prejudice.

Okay, my observations:


Best Picture:

Very intersting choices for Best Picture (Drama) this year. Match Point is fully back in the race now. Cinderella Man, The New World and Memoirs of a Geisha are dead now.

The Constant Gardener is doing well and it got a Director nom, but I see it being snubbed at the Oscars for both.

Munich's absence is worriesome, even moreso than King Kong's. It will get a nom at the Oscars, but a win is very unlikely now.

A History of Violence got another nice boost, but Cronenberg missed out on a nomination, so that is not so great.

It would be really interesting if Walk the Line actually lost in its category...really really interesting.

Crash is almost gone. Almost.


Best Director:

Munich and King Kong got noms here. Very interesting. I guess it's impossible not to nominate Spielberg. Jackson wil definitely get a nom at th Oscars as it was such a personal and passionate project of his.

Woody Allen should have his nom almost locked up for Match Point. He has been nominated six times for the Oscars and three times for the Globes only. Each time he got a directing nom there, he got one at the Oscars too.


Best Actor:

Not much love for Munich, eh? Bana's not there. That makes Howard and Mortensen serious threats.

Interesting that Crowe and Depp were nominated, but both are pretty much awards' favorites each year.

Heath Ledger, David Strathairn, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix have their Oscar noms locked up.


Best Actress:

Maria Bello should still go for supporting at the Oscars, I think.

Theron and Ziyi Zhang got the small revivals they needed and in a weak category like this one anything can happen. Watts missed out and that is not very good...


Best Supporting Actor:

Will Ferrell??? That's gotta be the biggest surprise at the GG's this time.

Clooney has his nom locked up, while Hoskins received the boost he needed to be back in the race. Things are also looking better for Giamatti. Still, this is a messed-up category this year, unlike the last year.


Best Supporting Actress:

Gong Li missing this one is bad, really really bad. Same for Diane Keaton and Amy Adams. I'm still 100% sure that at least one of them will be nominated at the Oscars. I don't see McDormand getting an Oscar nom.

Johansson's chances are getting better, but we all know that the Globes love her.

Michelle Williams is the only true lock in this categry.


Best Screenplay:

Munich got one here...interesting.

Surprsingly nothing for The Squid and the Whale. It will still get one at the Oscars.

As opposed to the Oscars, Woody Allen could only get four Best Screenplay noms at the Globes (13 at the Oscars), so a Match Point nom here means a lot. It might win the Oscar for original.

Spider-Man is true to it's source, it's just not a literal adaption of any Spider-Man story that's ever been written. Same goes for X-Men. Same goes for Goldfinger, which is widely considered the best Bond film ever. It doesn't have to be a literal adaption to remain true to it's source. For LOTR, it has to adhere to the rules. I'm not knocking Jackson for doing that. He had to. His follow-up film is another that he had to, but it raises the question about the guys limits, and he may know that he's limited, which is why he can't create stuff like George Lucas and James Cameron can. If somebody stands on the shoulders of giants, how can they possibly be as great as the giant? Jackson needs to get off the nipple and create a Terminator, Star Wars, or Indiana Jones of his own. If all he does are remakes and literal adaptions that are spelled out for him, and that's all I'm seeing, then he's standing on the shoulders of giants, not being a giant himself.