I wrote an awards preview on my new blog a few days ago
http://jrodgermoviereviews.wordpress.co ... s/#more-54"Labor Day is usually when Oscars/Academy Awards season unofficially starts, as screenings at Toronto and Venice’s film festival gets the early word out on prospective players. Here is my predictions for winners and nominees in the major categories:
Best Picture
Winner:
Argo – It’s got the early raves, star power, material (international thriller+ Hollywood) and even a prediction by Roger Ebert that it will win Best Picture. With some major players like Lincoln and Les Miserables yet to be seen, Argo is the frontrunner.
Nominees:
Beasts of the Southern Wild – This year’s “little film that could” critical/independent darling. The passion system favoring #1 and #2 votes should play in its favor.
The Master – The likely critics’ choice for film of the year, but the Academy usually awards more accessible films for Best Picture. Expect it to feel like the 2nd or 3rd strongest contender most of the year.
Moonrise Kingdom – A very warmly received little film that like Beasts, should reel in some passion votes
Les Miserables – Along with “Life of Pi”, a film that has the widest range between “Best Picture winner” and “outright panned”. I have a hard time seeing Tom Hooper striking Oscar gold again after The King’s Speech. I’d say even if it disappoints critics, the size and ambition of the project makes it a likely candidate to sneak out a Best Picture nominee slot anyways.
Lincoln – The highest profile Oscar film, it’s easy to see Spielberg pulling a War Horse or Munich by making a good film, but not one inspiring enough passion to get past the nominee stage.
Promised Land – My pick for sleeper that could steal Best Picture. Gus Van Sant when he’s in Good Will Hunting/Milk form fits the Oscar’s tastes, it has a great cast, and it’s a topical liberal film to the present economy and the Wall Street vs 99% debate.
Silver Linings Playbook – Strong reviews, a likeable cast and romantic plotline and the Best Actress frontrunner makes it a great bet to land a nomination. I expect a run as strong as David O. Russell’s last film The Fighter
Best Director
Winner:
Ben Affleck, ArgoNominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
If Argo takes Best Picture, Affleck is a shoo-in to pick up the Director award as well. Anderson is the biggest threat in the race to take “Best Director, someone else gets Best Picture” honors, though it’d have to be a film like Les Miserables taking Best Picture in that case. Silver Linings Playbook looks extremely strong across the board, Zeitlin will carry that out of nowhere narrative to a strong showing and Wes Anderson will get people voting for him in Best Director if they do in Best Picture due to the film’s style.
Best Actor
Winner:
Joaquin Phoenix, The MasterNominees:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Phoenix appears to give the performance of his life in the Master. I have a hard time seeing anyone else taking it with Day-Lewis looking for a 3rd Oscar, always an uphill climb. Hawkes’ role as a man with polio may be stiffer competition. Cooper can ride in on his strong film and good reviews, Damon if his film gets nominated for Best Picture is also a solid bet.
Best Actress
Winner:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings PlaybookNominees:
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lawrence has emerged as the frontrunner after her raves out of Toronto. After a big year with the Hunger Games, a coronation is in order. Wallis is the other lock as a strong story at her young age and unknown background. Cotillard, Knightley, and Streep are former nominees who should fill up the spots in a weak year for the category
Best Supporting Actor
Winner:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The MasterAlan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo Dicaprio, Django Unchained
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Christoper Walken, A Late Quartet
This appears the closest thing to a sure thing victory in the acting categories. Philip Seymour Hoffman delivers what appears to be a titanic performance in the Master and it “fits” that he gets awarded Oscar #2 at this point in his career. Arkin should be a shoo-in as the most praised actor in Argo. Dicaprio’s juicy role in Tarantino’s latest and two veterans in Holbrook and Walken complete the group
Best Supporting Actress
Winner:
Anne Hathaway, Les MiserablesNominees:
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Frances McDormand, Promised Land
Sally Field, Lincoln
The Oscars crowning Hathaway has been a question of when and not if for some time. She’ll need Les Miserables to be good to lock it up, but as of now she’s clearly the frontrunner. Adams and Hunt are the other shoo-in noms right now, while McDormand and Fields are respected vets in films I nominated for Best Picture."