Hmmm... I´d say Dillon stands a (small) chance, but if they are crazy about AHOV, why did it get only two noms?

My order of likelyhood:

1. Giamatti
2. Clooney
3. Gyllenhaal
4. Dillon
No chance: William Hurt. Considering my Oscar prediction track record, though, he is probably going to win.

A month ago, I would have said (and did!) that Gyllenhaal was the dark horse.

But, BAFTA or no BAFTA, I gotta put Matt Dillon in the third spot.

Gylenhall has the advantage that if the Academy wants to give an acting award to Brokeback Mountain, assuming Rachel Weisz wins BSA, the choice would be him.

at this point, each of the four supporting actors has something pretty big going for him that the votes are going to be quite spread out and it should be ANYONE'S win.

I'm starting to think Giamatti will probably be in the 4th spot now. He's been awarded quite a few times this year and the fact that he wasn't even nominated for Best Actor could mean that the Academy isn't as fond of him as the other nominees.

I think it['s between Clooney and Dillon with Jake as the dark horse.

I still think Giamatti could win purely out of the sympathy factor but honestly, it would be a very poor choice.

Giamatti would not be a good choice, but I am relatively sure he's going to take it home.

quoting myself :

Well, I mean that if there are enough AHOV supporters (who knows, it could have been #6 in BP and Director) they could easily focus their efforts on giving Hurt a win so it leaves with something. With Brokeback they would be more likely to spread their love out figuring they could vote for it in another category, same with Clooney & Crash. and no one is passionate about Cinderella Man, just passionate about Giamatti. Which should be good enough for him to win. Plus it's hard to gauge with Hurt since he had no precursor support from the other award folks.

I'd rank their chances like this -

1. Giamatti
2. Clooney
3. Gyllenhaal
4. Hurt
5. Dillon

Why is everyone ranking Dillon's chances so high, out of curiosity? Just because he's from Crash and they'll want to reward the ensemble acting by giving him the win? That makes sense but I just don't see it happening...as far as I know he's the only nominee to not win any type of SA award so far.

I don't want Giamatti winning, that's for sure.. (and I usually like him alot..)

I don't see what the BAFTA's have changed. It was a pretty clear vote splitting scenario, and their record as a predictor is rather spotty, no?

One of the frontrunners wasn't even nominated. I don't think we should pay much attention to Sunday's result.

It depends...

They were one of the few (along with NBR) to award Juliette Binoche for English Patient, just like it happened this year with Gyllenhaal..

I agree with your ranking for #1-#3, but while Dillon has a bit of a chance, Hurt's chances are NON-EXISTANT. Thus he should be #5.

the thing is: I don't see this matching 4/4 with the Globes and I don't see it matching 4/4 with the SAGs...


but since it won't be a perfect match with the BAFTAs (Thandie Newton got snubbed), I can perfectly see a Gyllenhaal win... it's pratically clear to me.. they want to award someone from the movie, but the other two categories are now locked..

There won't be a match....Michelle Williams will win Best Supporting Actress.

You still think that? I don't know.. she couldn't even win without Weisz... (and yeah, I know that Newton is british, but still... Binoche was french and won; and Gwyneth surprisingly lost here in 1999...)

We'll have to wait, I guess, since the Academy has made some really shocking choices in that category, so I can even see Amy Adams winning, like some are predicting...

I don't know, maybe it's just optimism that has me thinking Hurt has a chance but for whatever reason I think the Academy would give him the win before Dillon. If he were from the film North Country then I would say for sure he has absolutely no chance.

I think Williams, Adams and Weisz are about euqla in their chances as of now. Adams is the critics' favorite, Weisz won the biggies so far and Williams has received a whole lot of attention as well.

William Hurt absolutely cannot win. He's definitly been #5 all along, the top 4 just have so much more going for them. I mean, these 4 guys have been locked since god knows when. Hurt got in by the hair of his teeth, and AHOV has been shown no love so far. And if all the other factors weren't enough, they won't give it to a guy that has about 15 lines. Yes, you can scream "Judi Dench!", but we all know how the academy feels about her. William Hurt is no Judi Dench.

I think Weisz got lucky in that the attention of the whole film is focused on her.

I also think the Supporting Actress win is almost evened out among the three and if anyone were to surprise it would eb Michelle Williams, but Weisz just seems, in my opinion, too good of a catch for Academy Awards to resist.

If there is a Brokeback bandwagon, then Williams could take it. Technically, the only thing standing in Brokeback's way of a sweep is how locked up the acting categories are even though they might not seem that way. IT's such a shame that a young cast such as that one belted out an AMAZING acting ensemble and hasn't really recieved any recognition for it!

The Academy loves people who give extremely showy performances in small roles, like William Hurt did.

Besides Judi Dench, Beatrice Straight won Best Supporting Actress for Network despite only being in one scene.

Beatrice Straight deserved her Oscar, although Dench didn't impress me all too much.

I understand what you mean, but out of the other movies that didn´t get a BP nomination, AHOV doesn´t seem to stand out (Constant gardener, Walk the line or Pride & Prejudice do) If I had to bet which movies came out #6 in BP and BD, It would be one of those.

And Hurt is not due... I think there is the general feeling that this nom is a nice welcome back, but an award would be too much. Dillon is from a BP nominated film, an ensemble movie in which he is the only nominated actor. He has paid his dues, his performance is well liked and in a category without frontrunner, he could win, even if he is my #4. In fact, I think all four of them except Hurt could win... It´s a very exciting race, shame It will be one of the first awards of the night!

Dillon or Gyllenhall are going to upset.

That was a helluva a scene in Network, I never swa SIL.

Hurt won't win, the nom is his prize, especialy there is so little support for AHOV. I agree with Christian, anyone but Hurt coudl win this. The only way Hurt coudl win is if the other four really split the vote, but I still don't think he is strong enough to pull it out. The other 4 nominees have never one, not like a BS win to be a career killer, who wants to be the next Cuba Gooding Jr.

you know Gyllenhaal also got praised for JArhead which obviously bombed but he did gety out of that movie with some good reviews about his performance.

Beatrice Straight - that was a wow scene. A new DVD treatment of Network comes out soon...

Judi Dench was memorable in Shakespeare because she was bitchy, sarcastic, and fun all rolled into one. But it can be true that's also a makeup award for her losing over Helen Hunt.

William Hurt already won Best Actor so he has definitely slim to none chance of winning.