I lovvveeee Keira Knightly, and her getting nominated would make my day.

But this category is pretty useless anyways. Reese Witherspoon is at least 97% certain to destroy.

KK all the way for a nom that is, RW will take best female performance easily

Ok, so after watching the trailer for Transamerica I admit Felicity Hoffman has a legitimate shot at getting a nomination. I still don't think it's a sure thing, but it could happen. Diane Keaton moving to supporting has opened the race up a little, not that Keaton was a sure thing. I do think Keira Knightley will get nominated and I'm beginning to think Theron will miss out this year.

Maria Bello for A History of Violence...would she be lead or supporting?

Everyone seems to think supporting, but Oscarwatch lists her in the lead so I don't know. Either way, she's going to need some critical support to stay in any race. It seems like A History Of Violence is fading.

Hmm, yeah, but she had such a stand-out performance and to me it seems like the females categories are not that strongly represented this year.

Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Charlize Theron - North Country
Cameron Diaz - In Her Shoes
Kiera Knightly - Pride and Prejudice
Zhang Ziyi - Memoirs Of A Geisha

Hmm.

Reese Witherspoon
Judi Dench
Joan Allen
Keira Knightley
Felicity Huffman

No.

Reese Witherspoon
Zhang Ziyi
Kiera Knightly
Judi Dench
Gwyneth Paltrow/Charlize Theorn/Felicity Huffman

Keira Knightly with an Academy Award Nomination... that's just wow. Reese will still win.

The ones I am pretty sure of:

Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Zhang Ziyi - Memoirs of a Geisha
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents


Now I would like to know whether Scarlett Johansson is supporting or lead in Match Point and the same for Maria Bello in AHOV. Both might have a shot at a nom.

Keira Knightley is a good pick as well.

Joan Allen...I don't think so...The Upside of Anger got good, but not splendid reviews for her and it didn't make such a big splash at the box-office to be still remembered.

You guys are really underestimating Joan Allen!!!

My slightly updated rankings:
1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Zhang Ziyi
3. Joan Allen
4. Kiera Knightley
5. Felicity Huffman

6. Judi Dench
7. Charlize Theron
8. Gwenyth Paltrow
9. Claire Danes
10. Scarlet/Maria/New World girl if they end up going lead, which I doubt. (they do, however, rank higher in my supporting actress list)

The category seems a bit stronger with Kiera getting amazing reviews and Zhang Ziyi getting some word at all on her performance.

Tee Hee.

Mine for now:

1. Reese Witherspoon
2. Charlize Theron
3. Zhang Zhyi
4. Keira Knightly
5. Gwenyth Paltrow

Don't be surpised in Joan Allen wins best actress from the National Board Of Review early in December. Diane Keaton and Annette Bening have won the last two years so Joan seems like a prime candidate.

Shut up, I don't see any reason to laugh! What? What is there?

lol, everyone has KK on there list now

I expect Reese to take the win easily, no competition

I have a hard time seeing Charlize being nominated after the utter floppage of North Country and the generally tepid response from critics, but we'll see.

Yeah... I'm pretty sure about Dench too. They have to nominate at least one hag.

She's a hottie!

I wouldn't mind a nomination for her just to see her strutting her stuff on the red carpet in a versace. Mmmmmm....

I agree. I love Judy Dench.

Easy peasy:
Reese Witherspoon
Charlize Theron
Dame Judi Dench
Zhang Ziyi
Felicity Huffman


No Keira Knightley, no Cameron Diaz.

Pride and Prejudice is getting great notices, mostly for her, though.

I stand by the Winona Ryder and Little Women example.

I think the movie actors will not be looking to reward Felicity Huffman, who's mostly a TV actress, and will be taking care of their own. She won her emmy already and may win for upcoming TV stuff, but there'll be enough movie actresses that are just as deserving. I also seriously doubt that Transamerica is going to have the box office chops to be more than a bleep on the radar.

Kiera Knightly = yes.

The consensus is forming, and I don't see any reason to deviate from it. Reese is a lock for both the nom and win. Dench is 98% lock. Ziyi's chance is getting better as people are not saying she is completely overshadowed by Gong Li in the film as some earlier reports had suggested. I'd put both her and Kiera's chances at 60%. Then I still give the last one to Charlie Theron, with competition from Felicity Huffman and Joan Allen. Joan Allen is up there because best actress is one category that Oscar voters are most lenient toward early releases and film quality (e.g. Diane Lane).

I think Paltrow (and Prime sticking around) has as much chance as Theron, easily.