But it's only going to beat out 2 average movies.

Whoop dee doo...

I want it to beat out 4 pretty good movies.

The Simpsons and (probably) Beowulf will be a bit more than average.

Bourne should win some kind of award. I hate it how action movies are always snubbed by the Academy.

Agreed. To hell with the fact that it's animated, it's a brilliant movie no matter how you look at it. But of course, they'll nominate some big Oscar bait project that isn't nearly as good, falling under the "protection" of Ratatouille getting the Animated Feature Oscar. I hate Oscar politics.

It is kind of sad to say, but I hope the Oscar hopefuls don't live up to par and hit a double bougy. I really want Ratatouille to get some bigger reginition.

Ratatouille deserves a Best Picture nomination. Since there's absolutely no hope for Zodiac getting the nomination, it's my underdog movie to pull for.

As of right now, I'm predicting Atonement will win Best Picture, and from the looks of the international trailer at Awards Daily, it seems deserving.

Sweeney Todd will sweep.

Sweeney Todd is a big wild card. If it really does turn out to be great, it could contend. But on the other hand, the Academy has never gone for Burton, even when he tossed them his baitiest work (Big Fish).

Everyone is talking about Ratatouille still....and even the academy knows it screwed up with some past Pixar fils just because they were animated.

I actually think Ratatouille has a chance at a Best Pic nod if the years isn't that great.

You think? Maybe a win at the Golden Globes would boost its chances? Of course that didn't help Toy Story 2 and that was before the animated category was added.

Some have mentioned how this film was actually shot like a live-action film, I think that will help this film out greatly. Still it probably won't be enough.

rat has no chance for best picture.

I can't see Hairspray not winning at the Globes.

$100m+ musical with those kinds of reviews and that kind of cast?

Ehhh...Hairspray might be too silly. And even though almost all of the reviews were positive, few were glowing. It's one of those films that got mostly good reviews, but most of the good reviews weren't that good, they were more like "it's happy and entertaining."

I don't think Hairspray has what it takes for the nomination. It did get very positive reviews and was a big hit, but it's a remake and it's too light-hearted. Then again, most of the big contenders this year are darker movies and for that reason, a light-hearted movie could surge in the race and snag a surprise nod, but I think that the surprise upbeat contender is more likely to be Ratatouille than Hairspray. On top of that, I don't know how the hell the Academy would justify so much of the possiblility of nominating Adam Shankman for his directing, even if it (or more specifically, his choreographing work) was a big part of the movie working as well as it did.

Big Fish may have been baity, but it first has to be decent enough to be considered.

Otherwise I agree. Sweeny Todd is such an unknown. My faith in Burton at this moment is almost non-existant. The Academy didn't like Ed Wood enough to give it a Picture/Screenplay/Director nomination and it seemed much meatier than Sweeny Todd.

But it really depends on the field, what else these companies are going to run, etc. Warner may choose to run Zodiac... boy what a mistake they made with that film. Not expecting The Bucket List to be good... but if it is it's almost sure fire.

Right now I'm thinking of the following:

Universal will get a nomination somewhere with one of the following: Elisabeth: The Golden Age, Charlie Wilson's War, American Gangster, and/or probably not but maybe The Kingdom.

Focus with Eastern Promises (Cronenberg, Watts, Viggo), Lust Caution (Ang Lee, Leung/Chen), Atonement (cast of Pride & Predj) and Reservation Road really has a solid slate, but I'm not sold on anything here making a BP nomination.

United Artists is going to push hard with Lions for Lambs

Miramax: No Country For Old Men

Warner Bros.: P.S. I Love You, Zodiac, Sweeny Todd

Lionsgate may try with 3:10 to Yuma

New Line of course has Hairspray. I don't think Be Kind Rewind will rock the Oscar boat.

Weinstein mostly: I'm Not There

Paramount and Fox seem pretty out of it this year.

Don't think Yari or Magonila will be able to pull through a nomination, but stranger things have happened.

Not my final predictions, but I think I may have at least 3 of the nominees listed above.

If you had to press me to make an early prediction (in order of likelyhood) I'd say:

1. No Country For Old Men
2. Charlie Wilson's War
3. Lions for Lambs/Reservation Road (one or the other)
4. Hairspray???
5. ??? (would love it to be Eastern Promises, Lust Caution or Zodiac)

Rat will be nominated in Animated. Hoping for a Best Picture nomination for it is nearly impossible IMHO. That's why they created the category and there's no reason to believe the Academy would vote for an Animated film for Best Picture anymore because that category exists. They didn't do it for any of the other Pixar films, most of which had similar level of reviews, made more money and had more impact than Rat.

Looking over the list of the films coming out, the biggest thing I see is that I see no reason why Hairspray won't win the Globe (although yes, it's still early and something could upset) which isn't an ace in the hole for a nomination of course, but it's something to consider. Also Hairspray has chances for Sound, Song, Supporting Actor(ress), Costumes, Hair/Make-Up. While Rat. is surely in the running for Score and possibly one of the Sound nominations, Hairspray is a much more viable film in a variety of categories.


Nobody says Shankman has to be nomianted with the movie.

It should be noted that at least on Rotten Tomatoes, Hairspray has a 7.8/10 rating which is the exact same rating that past musical winner Chicago had. It's user rating at IMDB and Metacritic reviews are high for its genre.

I don't think we should downplay Hairspray's reviews. Of musical/comedies, it's one of the best reviewed films of its genre in the last few years.

That's true. If I do recall correctly, Big Fish did get mixed reviews. I loved it, though. (As little a difference as that makes with the Oscars.)

Focus has such an awesome-looking slate this year. I'm really looking forward to Atonement and Lust, Caution, I loved the trailer for Eastern Promises, and even though the trailer didn't quite meet my expectations, I'm still pretty optimistic about Reservation Road.

I think Warner Bros could run Michael Clayton. If the trailer is any indication, Clooney and Wilkinson could get rave reviews that could be used as a big part of the campaign. Warner Independent also has In the Valley of Elah, which could contend if the review strength is there, but could also falter if it doesn't deliver.

And of course, I'd love to see Zodiac get a nomination, as it's still the best movie of 2007 in my opinion.

Is it blasphemy to also say that I think Rat. is slightly weaker in Animated at this time?

It's almost a sure thing that the nominees will be Rat. (I can never spell it), Simpsons and Beowulf, but if Beowulf turns out to be good...

I think anything will be hard pressed to top Ratatouille (in the Animated Feature category, of course). The big factor is that it's so widely loved.

People keep on saying Ratatouille wouldn't get nominated for Best Picture and a reason is because of the animation category. Well what about Foreign Language films? I recall Crouching Tiger Hidde Dragon being nominated for both Foreign Film and Best Picture.

I don't think it's as difficult for a foreign language feature to get nominated as it is for an animated one to get nominated. Hell, just this decade, we've seen two foreign language nominees in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Letters from Iwo Jima (which was not eligible for Best Foreign Language Feature), and 1995 had Il Postino. You could *kind of* count Babel, which was heavily subtitled, as it was in several languages. (Of course, I'm including at least two movies that were not eligible for Foreign Language Feature, but a subtitled film is a subtitled film in the eyes of the voters.) A film can be subtitled and often times, still "mature" enough to gain the nod. Animation is still perceived as being a kids thing, and it's a lot harder to recognize an animated film in a lot of other categories.

What Web said, but also, it's only ever happened once (Beauty and the Beast in 1991). So all those really great and strong Disney movies of the 1940s/50s, 1990s, the Miyazaki films of the 2000s, and all the Pixar films have had little dent beyond Best Animated film (which started in 2001 I believe with Shrek), Best Song and (I think) maybe a sound nomination here and there.

Disney will probably still run it for Best Animated and Best Picture, as they've always done... and nothing technically prevents the film from being nominated in both, but with it's own allotted category now and the historical difficulty of getting an animated film nominated, and maybe releasing a film like Rat. in a traditionally non-Oscar season (summer) could be another factor.

Outside of this, personally, having not seen Rat. I don't see the impact it's had. Nemo and Incredibles and Toy Story had a lot more impact and significance. Not that all Best Picture candidates need that impact, but this IMO is something Rat would need to overcome massive obsticles. I would never totally bet against it, but no more than a 1%ish chance.

Well, andaroo is right. I pretty much agree with what he said. Nemo. The Incredibles and Toy Story 2 had more going for them, yet were not nominated. This year will notbe very weak either, I think.