The box office of Dreamgirls will be incredibly strong. I think that'll be enough to push Beyonce in. There's also always that need of the Academy to somewhat look "cool," like giving an Oscar to Eminem, and Beyonce is by far probably the biggest all around female star right now (5 years ago, probably J. Lo). She also has alot of influence in Hollywood. I see her pushing out one of the other likely nominees (non Mirren or Streep, but one of the other 3).

I don't think Eminem is a good comparison to Beyonce, since 8 Mile waasn't really much of a player outside of best song. That will not be the case with Dreamgirls. I included Beyonce in my earlier predictions but I feel more confident about it now.

I also think Laura Dern has a bit of a chance. Inland Empire is getting mixed review but her performance if being widely praised. She's Laura Dern. She reminds me a bit of a Patricia Clarkson a few years ago (Pieces of April, supporting actress).

At this point I think Winslet is hanging on for dear life, she has to pray the rest of the competition all falls flat.

Helen Mirren
Penelope Cruz
Meryl Streep

Should be in. After that

Judi Dench
Naomi Watts
Beyonce
Kate Winslet

For now I think Mirren, Cruz, Streep, Dench, and Watts. For Watts I think they feel they owe her for carrying King Kong, and they know she is this close to becoming a prime player among actresses.

After Charlize Theron completely stole Watts' thunder three years ago, Watts hasn't been able to be a full fledged contender though she's given some very worthy performances.

1. Helen Mirren
2. Penelope Cruz
3. Meryl Streep
4. Beyonce (relying entirely on the fact that the film will indeed maintain the buzz that has been built up this year)

I'm kind of split on the 5th nominee as of now. I think it will come down between 2 academy favorites. Ine of them as old as they come and the other as young as they come

5. Kate Winslet/Judi Dench

At this point, I'm leaning more towards Dench since both her movie and her performance has a slight edge over Winslet in buzz. If Beyonce does get in, she'll take alot of the young votes away from Winslet. If Beyonce doesn't get in, these two will be the final nominees.

Right now Cruz, Streep, and Dench all appeared in the runner-up spot for one of the critic awards (Streep was pushed to supporting in her mention), and nothing for Winslet. Worrisome sign.

Can we change the thread title to "Helen Mirren 2006"?

Can we change the thread title to "Helen Mirren 2006"?

Hey, surprises happen...

But not much for Oscars. It's been rumored that Mirren was the pick for Oscar and so far the awards this side of the Atlantic are proving the fix is in. I don't think Cruz or any of the others are going to get anywhere now.

IF Winslet is snubbed by BFCA, I'd proudly go as far as to say that she's done for.

Yeah, I'm going there.

Honestly, for Kate Winslet...

I love her. But she's not winning this year. So... all she'll really have is... another nomination, and loss.

A snub this year isn't the end of the world for her.

She'll win. In time.

These five are pratically locked unless some weird stuff happens...


Also in contention:


Gyllenhaal
Bening
Knowles


And that seems to be it.

Check this out, it's pretty funny...

It's from Oscarwatch... actually I think it's from thefilmexperience. yep, it's the latter.

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Raffiki2k5/queen.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting"></a>

Poor Kate Winslet.

"I'm going to lose.... again."



Peace,
Mike.

Given Kate Winslet's excessive penchant for being awesome in every movie, I am highly confident she will win an Oscar eventually.

Unless Maggie upsets at SAG, I can't see it not being Cruz--Dench-Mirren-Streep-Winslet.

Don't feel too bad. She was the first actress EVER to have FOUR Oscar nods before she turned 30. She was the youngest double nominee EVER. This year, she could get a fifth nod, and she's only 31. She's on her way to being a Meryl Streep at the rate she's going. Even if she doesn't win in the next 10 years, she'll be so acclaimed by what could eventually be 10 nominations, that she will look only more impressive when she does finally win. She'll definitely win though. It's hard to ignore her ever growing accomplishments.

Kate Winslet will win in 2051 when they produce the sequel Driving Miss Daisy's Great Granddaughter.

That, or the remake of Titanic, playing Gloria Stuart's character (which was actually her character)...

Saw Notes on a Scandal last night. Judi Dench gave a really delicious performance (better than Helen Mirren, imo), but I think it's a very plausible scenario that she gets snubbed from a nomination since I don't think she'll get a lot of #1 votes from the people who don't vote Mirren #1.

Snubbed for a nomination?

Really? I have her pegged at #2 for Actress.

Oh and I'm seeing The Queen tonight, I believe.

This Mirren lady best not disappoint.

Judi Dench is locked for a nomination, possibly even more than Meryl

She won't. I saw it last night and I was more impressed than I thought I was going to be.