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 Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread 
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The Lubitsch Touch
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I think they'll deem Gus Van Sant due some recognition. He'll catch fire. I feel it.

Boyle's an outsider, even compared to Van Sant. His one big studio picture was, well, what rhymes with piasco?

A lot of people seem to be unwilling to accept Slumdog Millionaire as a heavy, heavy favorite. Why is this?

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:37 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
yoshue wrote:
I think they'll deem Gus Van Sant due some recognition. He'll catch fire. I feel it.

Boyle's an outsider, even compared to Van Sant. His one big studio picture was, well, what rhymes with piasco?

A lot of people seem to be unwilling to accept Slumdog Millionaire as a heavy, heavy favorite. Why is this?


It is, definitely. It is most likely ton win BP now. But Boyle is even more likely to win BD.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:44 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Boyle will get the win. I have no fucking idea why, but he will. And they won't recognize his co-director, even though she was responsible for all the urban Mumbai scenes (aka the best parts of the film).

Anyways, BB never needed great reviews, but these are a little tepid. Still, I think it does have a good deal of passion judging by its placement on CriticsTopTen and such. So even if Doubt is making a bit of a rebound, it's still well behind Button IMO. But yeah, Doubt can put back on "possible" list.

So we're back up to 8 options again?

Locked:
1.Slumdog
2. Milk

Looking good:
3. TDK
4. Wall-E

One will probably get in:
5. Button
6. Frost/Nixon

Can't rule out:
Doubt

Can rule out slightly more than Doubt, but still, wouldn't be unheard of...but pretty much out:
The Wrestler


Last edited by snack on Tue Dec 23, 2008 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:47 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Too much confidence in Wall-E, snack!

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Last edited by Johnny Dollar on Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:49 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
It's really between six films now. I'd need something like a PGA/DGA shocker to believe in Doubt.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:50 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Snack is pretty much right with the ranking. I think F/N is now more likely than Button. See, Button appears on many lists, but for a film like this, it is not getting many top spots.


The Wrestler needed tons of passion and judging by MetaCritic, it ain't getting it. Even Frost/Nixon and Doubt have more 100-scores so far.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:52 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
F/N isn't being as well-campaigned and most certainly won't have as much traction around the Academy, though. I think it'd need more of a GNGL-type campaign.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 9:01 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I'd be shocked if Button missed out on a nomination.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
The thing with BB is that, out of all the contenders, it's the one film which, on paper, needs critical support the least or could get in with the lowest MC/RT rating because of its scale and pre-ordained status, especially now its box office prospect looks fine. It in fact surprises me that it has done as well as it did with critic groups, even winning one. If it wins BFCA and GG, it will be back as the frontrunner big time, but the most likely scenario is two films splitting the two awards.

My ranking:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Dark Knight
6. Wall-E
7. Doubt
8. The Wrestler
9. Revolutionary Road

I could see the top 5 staying that way all throughout the guilds. With Wall-E not eligible for PGA, those 5 films could make both PGA and DGA, and all 5 are WGA contenders. Doubt is really only looking at WGA, The Wrestler DGA and WGA, and RR almost nothing.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 9:50 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
At least appearing on one-sixth of the ballots shouldn't be that hard for Frost/Nixon. Howard is big with directors, it's a mini-actors showcase (In leading roles at least), and the screenplay can be argued to having a major role in the film. And once again, there IS an audience for Frost/Nixon. I think arguing it doesn't have as much passion as GNAGL or Michael Clayton is phooey.

Of course, the last time I used the word "phooey" in the Oscar race it was about TDK's chances back in June. Still, y'all are underestimating it.


Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:15 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
There's an audience for it, it just seems that Universal's stumbling on it. $9k in 39 theaters? Not good. They should have bit the bullet and gone for 200 theaters on the 19th instead of the 25th where everything is expanding, even with inclement weather. (And really, even if you dock the 40% drop down to the low 30% range, it's not good for a film in only 40-odd theaters) GNGL had a bigger audience/better campaign, as did Clayton. And they both had Clooney. I think it'll do maybe $1.2 million in 200 screens this weekend, which is okayish but I don't know if it'll gain much traction. It easily could not hit $15 million overall, and it doesn't have enough big supporters for that to not be a setback like, say, Capote or Letters From Iwo Jima (which had Clint).

I want to see it pick up there and get DGA/WGA and especially PGA. I think it's more the studio itself not doing quite enough lately and that could show up in the coming weeks. Rev Road on the other hand has been stumbling all this time and it's had enormous studio shakeups, so at least it has a good excuse for things like screenings not coming in.

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Last edited by Tyler on Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:26 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Anton Chigurh wrote:
There's an audience for it, it just seems that Universal's stumbling on it. $9k in 39 theaters? Not good. They should have bit the bullet and gone for 200 theaters on the 19th week instead of the 25th where everything is expanding, even with inclement weather. (And really, even if you dock the 40% drop down to 30%, it's not good for a film in only 40-odd theaters) GNGL had a bigger audience/better campaign, as did Clayton. And they both had Clooney.

I want to see it pick up there and get DGA/WGA and especially PGA. I think it's more the studio itself not doing quite enough lately and that could show up in the coming weeks. Rev Road on the other hand has been stumbling all this time and it's had enormous studio shakeups, so at least it has a good excuse for things like screenings not coming in.


I think Universal is doing just fine. Considering how most of the cities where it was playing had horrific weather, I'm not surprised by the mediocre number. Now, if it makes less than $1 million this weekend (Or $5,000 PTA), then it's in bad shape.

As for the guilds, I fail to see why it should miss. WGA is easy-peazy, and the DGA has awarded Howard twice before. PGA will be hard, but if WALL-E is hurt by its Animated category it should get in fine. At that point it has all four guilds, a very-hard-to-kill combo. I think people are just eager to write it off because to THEM it seems like the kind of thing they'd be the least passionate about.


Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:36 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I did an edit that backs up a bit more.

Wall-E's not eligible for PGA. I'd actually watch out for The Wrestler in there. Don't ask why. And if F/N really does stumble, would they nominate it? Though I do think it's in if they do.

DGA is the real test.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:37 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Holy shit, my posts are becoming borderline incomprehensible.

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Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:47 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Revo Road and The Wrestler have a better shot at getting nominated than Doubt.

That Benjamin Button RT info looks alarming. That's certainly not BP-worthy. I'd pretty much die if The Wrestler took its spot (as well as Frost/Nixon's) alongside TDK and WALL-E, up against the obvious favs Slumdog and Milk. That's my dream ballot.

It sucks that my dream ballot consists of only three films I really want to see nominated, just because even in my wildest dreams, Milk and Slumdog are nominated. Not that they're bad films (I hope to see them both soon).

Frost/Nixon continues to define mediocre with the RT scores.

I wish I had the balls to predict Frost/Nixon and Benjamin Button will both be snubbed in favor of TDK, WALL-E and The Wrestler. But I'll totally settle for TDK and WALL-E over one of the others.

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Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:08 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Slumdog is missing out!

I'm telling you!!!

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Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:10 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Winners

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Gus Van Sant
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz

I am starting to see no competition for Slumdog now. I was a big backer of Button going all the way but the passion doesn't seem to be there. Alot of things could change but right now Slumdog is steamrolling anything. You'd be crazy for not thinking it's up for the win. I think Director is the shakiest of all my predictions. It assumes that Milk will remain a big player. I have a gut feeling, though, that it's gonna lose steam and end up like Into the Wild or something. In that situation, Fincher or Boyle will take it. My money would be on Boyle just because of Slumdog craze.

Actor, I think, is a DEAD HEAT between Rourke and Penn. I can't even decide who I WANT to win. I loved em both. The Wrestler blew beyond my wildest expectations and despite many odds comes in at #1 for me this year. I also rewatched Mystic River (like right now) and think Penn's work in Milk is his best yet (that I've seen). No one else is really in this race,

Actress is going to Winslet. I saw RevRoad and she delivers. I don't think it's her best performance to date but she does deliver. I watched Doubt and had alot of mixed feelings but bottom line about Streep: she didn't blow me away. Hawkins is not really in contention, like, AT ALL (she may even miss out on a nom). Jolie... aint gonna happen - not a big enough vehicle to give her her second Oscar before Kate's first. Hathaway: I can't see them giving her an Oscar before Kate - this may work in Streep's favor for those who weren't blown away by Winslet. In the end, it's gonna be Kate vs. Winslet after all with Melissa Leo as a very distant dark horse. Winslet will win.

The supporting categories are so locked up that they are not worth talking about. Only scenario in which we may get a surprise is if Winslet loses Best Actress and enough of the Academy votes for her in supporting as a consolation prize and in effect denies Cruz what is rightfully hers.

NOMINATIONS....

I'm kind of over talking about nominations, but if I were to predict a surprise it would be a late surge in Rev.Road support
This Wall-E thing. While I'm still not predicting it, I will start eating my crow right now and say it is a bona fide contender and probably one step from a nomination if it doesn't get in.

I really wish The Wrestler had more passion behind it.

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Wed Dec 24, 2008 2:56 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Wait, how do we know that Wall-E is ineligible for the PGA? Other organizations have had a separate animated category (BFCA) and still nominated it for picture.


Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:07 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Didn't The Incredibles get nominated for the PGA together with live-action films?

EDIT: Ah yes, but the PGA added the animated section a year after.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
The problem with Slumdog is that its hype is peaking too early, much like with Juno. The films seem to match up.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The problem with Slumdog is that its hype is peaking too early, much like with Juno. The films seem to match up.


Details? :er:


Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:09 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Whoa 75% for Button now. Ebert didn't like it :shock: Rex Reed called it one of the best movies ever :funny:

Though BFCA is back up to 90 so that's comforting

IMO

1. Slumdog
2. Milk
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Benjamin Button
5. TDK

6. Wall-E
7. Doubt
8. The Wrestler

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Wed Dec 24, 2008 1:10 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Ebert has been nothing short of a looney lately. I don't trust his judgement at all anymore. King Geroge as a ghost in Australia. :zonks:

The man should retire. Medications are obviously getting the best of him.


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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
The thing is, the producers would have to withdraw Wall-E from the PGA animation category to be eligible. And all sources indicate they haven't.

Milk's theater drop this week is utterly baffling. Why does Universal botch all of its Oscar campaigns?

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Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
MC Update


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


72/100 with 17 reviews and 2 100-scores



Revolutionary Road


79/100 with 12 reviews and 0 100-scores




Milk


84/100 with 37 reviews and 10 100-scores



Slumdog Millionaire


86/100 with 35 reviews and 9 100-scores



Doubt


70/100 with 30 reviews and 4 100-scores



Changeling


63/100 with 38 reviews and 3 100-scores



Frost/Nixon


79/100 with 34 reviews and 5 100-scores



The Wrestler


80/100 with 24 reviews and 5 100-scores



Vicky Cristina Barcelona


70/100 with 34 reviews and 1 100-score



Gran Torino


73/100 with 26 reviews and 0 100-scores



Happy-Go-Lucky


84/100 with 34 reviews and 7 100-scores



Rachel Getting Married


82/100 with 35 reviews and 8 100-scores



Wendy & Lucy


80/100 with 17 reviews and 1 100-score



Frozen River


82/100 with 29 reviews and 5 100-scores



The Reader


56/100 with 29 reviews and 1 100-score


________________________________________________________________________________


I dunno....somehow the lack of major passion for Benjamin Button surprises me. And The Wrestler started picking up.

Revolutionary Road shows a complete lack of passion so far.

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