Michelle Williams is competing in supporting, no?

She's being campaigned in lead. It sounds like Monae in supporting is also dubious but she's being campaigned there as well.

Janelle winning for Glass Onion would be awesome. She was so good. But yeah, I bet they put Michelle Williams in supporting so as not to compete with Michelle Yeoh.

Austin Butler winning would be terrible. Danielle Radcliffe deserves it. Brendan Frasier would be a great feel-good story but they usually like to snub people like that.

Actor is between Fraser and Farrell, not Butler. Adv Farrell
Actress is between Yeoh and Williams. Adv Yeoh
Supporting Actor is locked up for Quan, IMO
Supporting actress will probably be Kerry Condon but Monae or Chao could upset

I'm not going to overreact to critics awards this year as Tar, Banshees and Everything Everywhere could all plausibly be less popular with Oscars than critics. I am little concerned about Michelle Williams though as Blanchett and Yeoh is tough competition.

Not feeling Monae anymore. I think in the end it will be whoever gets nominated of Hsu or JLC riding a Everything Everywhere momentum. I wanted to predict a minority in supporting actress but slept on Hsu as an option having not seen EEAAO at that point.

I think Oppenheimer will win actor OR supporting actor, but not both. Actor seems to be between Murphy and Giamatti at this point, and supporting actor between Ruffalo and Downey Jr.

The actress categories seem more set at this point.

Supporting Actress - Randolph: easiest pick of the season
Supporting Actor - Downey, Jr.: He seems like a guy like Pitt, Clooney and Bullock where his friends will make sure he wins the Oscar
Actor: Giamatti - The Holdovers surges to top 2 contender status and gets him the win
Actress: Gladstone - I want to predict that she loses and KOFM joins many nominations 0 wins club but I don’t really see the alternative at this point

Thanks for letting me find https://www.instagram.com/michellerandolph/feed/

Murphy and Robbie are both gonna win.

Still not sure on supporting. DeNiro carries Flower Moon, but Gosling and Downey might be too strong to overcome. Haven't seen Holdovers but that does seem like a good win to honor the movie and avoid an oscarssowhite backlash.

Mmm I loved the Holdovers but I feel like Giamatti isn't even locked for a nom rn

After seeing it I think Stone is going to end up winning now, I think they like performances where you go all out physically like Phoenix in Joker, so much of Stone's performance is below her neck.

Yeah. Literally no way i hell the Academy passes on the Barbenheimer craze. Murphy/Robbie are LOCKED.

Do you think the Academy will pass on the "Barbenheimer runs wild at the Oscars" headlines and off the buzz it's gonna create? No way in hell.

I think once the Golden Globes happen it's going to raise the profile a lot on these races with the public. I do expect we'll get memes, etc. playing on Barbenheimer in their campaigns with fan created work. I don't think enough people will watch Emma Stone's performance and think pop culture will take over this campaign. March is a long time away and $$$ and ratings and Academy pandering with virality of Barbenheimer campaigns will shift it back.

I think Murphy wins but Robbie only gets a nomination. In fact I think Barbie only gets nominations and wins little outside of production awards like design and costumes

Haven't see the Holdovers with Giamatti. But Zac Efron >>>> Murphy in Oppenheimer, in fact I don't think its even close in personal opinion.

Ryan Gosling being Supporting is blatant category fraud lmao. The movie was just as much about him as it was about Barbie. Arguably he is the more memorable/iconic part of the film.

Robbie was fine but not Oscar-worthy. She was basically playing the kind of larger than life fantasy comedy role Jim Carrey used to play a lot in the 90s (granted, he should've been nominated for Truman Show). Her winning over Lily Gladstone would be a complete travesty. Lily's performance was far more visceral and devastating and complex. She said so much just with her gaze in so many scenes. I haven't seen Poor Things yet but Emma Stone did not deserve it for payoLa Land and she is too young and her filmography is too messy to have two Oscars at this point.

Personally, I would have nominated Carey for Truman, Liar Liar and Dumb & Dumber. Comedy always gets overlooked at awards shows unless they are comedies that make old white men feel better about themselves like Green Book.

You can't tell me there were 5 better lead actor roles in 2005 than Vaughn in Wedding Crashers or Ferrell in Anchorman in 2004. A million other examples, just nominate McAdams for supporting Actress for Mean Girls, etc. Weirdly they went out on a limb for McCarthy being a horny fat girl in Bridesmaids?

Not acting sure, but on the topic of comedy: the fact that Edgar Wright has never even been nominated for director shows how little the Academy thinks of the genre.

Emma Stone isnt gonna lose. She was a masterpiece in Poor Things