But if Leo gets in do ya'll think he could win since he's winless. I hope he doesn't become a Otoole or have to wait till he's 50 or 60 to be presented one.

Could Philip Seymour Hoffman pull ahead of Tommy Lee Jones in this race? I mean so far we have all been assuming that Tommy Lee Jones is a shoe-in to win, but looking at the entire season, Hoffman has dominated it a bit more than Jones. Jones is, of course, being helped by being in a MUCH bigger film, but who knows...

I'd love if that actually happened. He was amazing in The Master and I found Tommy Lee Jones to be a bit overrated.

So is Waltz in the running now?

Yes. He already was. But I still think it's TLJ as the clear frontrunner.

I'd say frontrunner, but he is not that far ahead of PSH and Waltz, and DeNiro's not terribly far behind those two.

Arkin, on the other hand...

If TLJ loses SAG, he's in serious trouble.

Not feeling Waltz winning again. I'm guessing De Niro is most likely spoiler. It's not like TLJ in his film is any better than De Niro. It's just people thought Lincoln had the stronger BP race film, and now it's a toss-up

Yeah, people are really underestimating De Niro. Silver Linings obviously has a large amount of support from the Academy. I think TLJ is out in front, but if De Niro wins SAG, it'll be hard for TLJ to win the Oscar.

I doubt De Niro will get his third Oscar for THAT performance. Meryl Streep had to fight for years to get her third.

I dunno, it has less to do with the performance than the circumstances.

This category is such a clusterfuck I have no idea who is going to win. I could even see Arkin pulling an upset if Argo ends up being the BP selection.

If Arkin won not only would it be an upset it would utterly ridiculous and embarassing.

This category is chaos! I think I have TLJ 4th now

Nah, TLJ is still a frontrunner per default. The Academy doesn't seem to like The Master much, Waltz's win is very recent, Arkin winning would be totally bananas and I doubt rhey'll give De Niro his third Oscar for SLP.

So Tommy Lee finally wins something of substance, so I'd say he's the frontrunner, but not by a lot.

What's your diagnosis Dr. Lecter?

TLJ won the ONLY award of substance so far. All the others have been given out by critics, this is by his peers, some of whom also vote for the Oscars. he has been a frontrunner by a little before, but now he is a MAJOR frontrunner.

See, Waltz and Arkin have won way too recently, De Niro has won twice before and I don't see him getting his third just now. Hoffman would be in second place, but I just don#t think The Master is that well-liked. Tommy lee Jones is a very very safe choice, especially given the character he plays.

Christoph Waltz won for Django Unchained.