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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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My ENTIORE analysis of the NBR picks are in the NBR thread... so I'll just give my new ranks....
December 01, 2004
1. Aviator (=)
2. Closer (+1)
3. Phantom of the Opera (-1)
4. Finding Neverland (+4) (I really don't think it ranks here though, this is completely from its NBR win)
5. Ray (=)
tie: Hotel Rwanda (-2)
tie: Million Dollar Baby (=)
tie: Sideways (+4)
7. Kinsey (=)
8. The Sea Inside (+3)
9. The Passion of the Christ (=)
10. Vera Drake (+4)
11. A Very Long Engagement (+1)
12. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (+3)
13. Spanglish (+3)
The rest are out of the race (Alexander, Motorcycle Diaries, F9/11)
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1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:49 pm |
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm
Posts: 7908
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1. Aviator
2. Closer
3. Finding Neverland -l havent changed this much since before it came out...but l also havent seen it  it came to two theaters here the 24th and was out by the 26th at both,,,:? l;m not gonna drive an hourish to see it...so l might not end up seeing it...so really this is just more of a feeling...plus the nbr thing...so..yknow...
4. Sideways
5. Million Dollar Baby / Hotel Rwanda (l'm thinking one of these two will make it...thats the order l'd say too)
6, Spanglish
7 Sea Inside, A Very Long Engagement (maybe)
l have very little to no faith in Ray, Kinsey, and Phantom...and l think the following are pretty much without chance : The Passion of the Christ, Vera Drake, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:01 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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The race has been reduced to 10 contenders (er...11)
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Aviator
3. Million Dollar Baby
4. Closer
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Spanglish
8. Hotel Rwanda
9. Ray
10. Fahrenheit 9/11
11 (just cause I refuse to believe it has no chance at all  ) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind...but it does look like if any film takes the "quirky" spot it's gonna be Sideways.
I'm also keeping an eye out on The Sea Inside. _________________ Best Actress 2008
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:09 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
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Last Noms:
The Aviator (Miramax/WB)
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus)
Hotel Rwanda (Fine Line) OR Kinsey (Fox)
Closer (Sony) OR Million Dollar Baby (WB)
Ray (Universal) OR Spanglish (Sony)
New Ones:
The Aviator (Miramax/WB)
Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Million Dollar Baby (WB)
Ray (Universal)
Sideways (Fox Searchlight)
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| Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:54 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I don't think the slightly negative reviews for Closer will hurt its chances. Sure, it may have a 52% now, but many of the raving reviews haven't been added and I think it'll end up over 70% fresh. Even so, it has enough star power to propel it to a nod even if it stays at 60%, I would say.
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| Thu Dec 02, 2004 6:06 pm |
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BigMoviePimp
Speed Racer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:54 pm
Posts: 198
Location: The Real World
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Closer's chances are weaker now, but I still believe that the Academy won't snub it. At the moment, my predictions are:
Sideways
Finding Neverland
Closer
The Aviator
Hotel Rwanda/The Sea Inside
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:35 am |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
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New Predictions:
The Aviator (WB/Miramax)
Collateral (DreamWorks)
Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Million Dollar Baby (WB)
Spanglish (Sony)
Other Option: Sideways (Fox Searchlight) for Spanglish
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:53 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Honestly, I just doubt the Academy will ever nominate a movie with Adam Sandler in it, even if it's great.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 12:30 pm |
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Goldie
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm
Posts: 7286
Location: TOP*SECRET ******************** ******************** ******************** ********************
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Honestly, I just doubt the Academy will ever nominate a movie with Adam Sandler in it, even if it's great. EVER, Sorry, I disagree BIG-TIME.
Times change.
- Look at the careers of Jim Carrey and Tom Hanks, they were as bad as Sandler.
- Both started on TV.
- Both did juvinille comedy. Like Jim Carrey talking out of his ass is Ace V and Tom Hanks being a tv comedy actor and then starting off his career with some early unpopular critics movie like Joe and the Volcano and The man with the red shoe.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:16 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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The difference is that both are indeed better actors than Sandler.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:18 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Adam Sandler has skill. Just because he's in movies that are usually a little wild, that doesn't mean he'll never be good enough for Oscars.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:20 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Well, the thing is that Hanks as well as Carrey have both been in comedies like that, yet in those comedies they showcase more talent than Sandler ever has in his.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:21 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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I just think that Adam Sandler has talent, and there is always a chance that Spanglish could get nominated.
I am praying that Collateral gets nominated, and even wins. That would be awesome. It probably won't win, but if it gets nomiated, it would be just so... 
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:27 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Collateral stands a better chance to get nominated as before considering the fact that usually one pre-September movie gets nominated and Collateral stands the best chance at the moment out of all pre-September releases.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:49 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I still say Closer's nominated. I just can't see the Academy snubbing in and giving it to Collateral or Spanglish.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:42 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Spanglish wont get nominated because....
The spanish theme is already taken by Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, and The Sea Inside
and also....
if any comedy or quirky movie is going to be nominated, there is no way they will be nominated over the best reviewed movie of the year, Sideways!
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:11 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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Raffiki wrote: Spanglish wont get nominated because....
The spanish theme is already taken by Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, and The Sea Inside
and also....
if any comedy or quirky movie is going to be nominated, there is no way they will be nominated over the best reviewed movie of the year, Sideways! Yep. I actually think Sideways will be nominated.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:13 pm |
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Atoddr
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:07 am
Posts: 3014
Location: Kansai
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Closer chances for a picture nomination seem to be growing slimmer. It still could get some noms, (screenplay, director, sup. actor and actress) but I think it's going to miss out for the big prize.
I just watched the trailer for Hotel Rwanda and I think it has a very good chance.
My current predictions:
1. The Aviator
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Finding Neverland
4. Hotel Rwanda
5. Sideways
With Closer stumbling, I'm moving Sideways into the top 5. But wouldn't it be interesting if Spanglish or Phantom Of The Opera made it in?
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 6:18 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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I still believe that The Phantom of the Opera has a great chance to get nominated.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:19 pm |
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Dkmuto
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 7:30 pm |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I was looking through some other Rotten Tomatoes ratings, and noticed Chocolat at only 62% Fresh, yet it was nominated for 5 Oscars.
I just saw the trailer for Million Dollar Baby, and it is really really good. It looks like the perfect film the Academy would nomiate. All three look like they give great performances, but I think Clint might just miss out because of how crowded Best Actor is.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 10:05 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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Who says Tom Hanks and Jim Carey are better than SAndler?
That's merely an opinion and I( don't know...if Spanglish isn't nominated it won't be because Sandler is in it.
Motorcycle Diaries, and Bad Education won't be nominated, and either way spanish is not the "theme" of the movie.
Just for that I'm moving Spanglish into my top 5 (or I think I already have)
New list:
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Aviator
3. Million Dollar Baby
4. Spanglish.
5. Kinsey
Alternates: Hotel Rwanda (instead of Kinsey)
Closer (instead of Spanglish, for Columbia's best picture nominee)
Sideways (instead of Spanglish, for the comedy slot) _________________Best Actress 2008
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:11 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Rod wrote: Who says Tom Hanks and Jim Carey are better than SAndler? That's merely an opinion and I( don't know...if Spanglish isn't nominated it won't be because Sandler is in it. Motorcycle Diaries, and Bad Education won't be nominated, and either way spanish is not the "theme" of the movie. Just for that I'm moving Spanglish into my top 5 (or I think I already have) New list: 1. Finding Neverland 2. The Aviator 3. Million Dollar Baby 4. Spanglish. 5. Kinsey Alternates: Hotel Rwanda (instead of Kinsey) Closer (instead of Spanglish, for Columbia's best picture nominee) Sideways (instead of Spanglish, for the comedy slot) And no shot for The Phantom of the Opera? _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:14 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Rod wrote: Who says Tom Hanks and Jim Carey are better than SAndler? That's merely an opinion and I( don't know...if Spanglish isn't nominated it won't be because Sandler is in it. Motorcycle Diaries, and Bad Education won't be nominated, and either way spanish is not the "theme" of the movie. Just for that I'm moving Spanglish into my top 5 (or I think I already have) New list: 1. Finding Neverland 2. The Aviator 3. Million Dollar Baby 4. Spanglish. 5. Kinsey Alternates: Hotel Rwanda (instead of Kinsey) Closer (instead of Spanglish, for Columbia's best picture nominee) Sideways (instead of Spanglish, for the comedy slot) And no shot for The Phantom of the Opera? Not for best picture.
Things will become clearer once GG nominations are anounced. _________________Best Actress 2008
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:18 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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I still believe Golden Globe will revive the campaign of The Phantom of the Opera.
Closer is the exact opposite of Chocalat (cold vs. sweet), which also had Miramax at its peak behind it. I don't think we can keep using Chocalat as an example of movie getting a nomination without much love from the critics.
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| Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:54 pm |
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