Meh, I think the only actor who really deserves a lot for Into the Wild is Emile Hirsch. He's still a fairly young actor without a ton of experience and yet he carried the movie on his shoulders for two-and-a-half hours. I thought that both Vince Vaughn and Hal Holbrook were more memorable, but then again, Vaughn was doing something he doesn't usually do (not comedy) and Holbrook was right at the end and had what I thought was one of the more crucial scenes of the movie (his conversation with Hirsch before he leaves for Alaska). First, Keener was just kind of there for a while, then gone for a while, and then back in what I thought was the only really dry stretch of the movie.

I think Catherine Keener is one of those actresses who's always so great/natural in everything she does that it's kinda easy to overlook her.

I guess Vanessa Redgrave is out. Too bad. Swinton/Blanchett/Ryan/Ronan/Keener looks likely.

I have to agree with the consensus.

1. Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE
2. Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE
3. Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON
4. Saoirse Ronan, ATONEMENT
5. Catherine Keener, INTO THE WILD



with Vanessa Redgrave and Ruby Dee just outside the top 5.

Dee is old. Not that she wasn't good, but that's what she has going for her. Age.

only Ryan and Blanchett have a remote chance at this point. I thought Ronan was in the race - mostly for being good and so young - but no SAG basically means she's out. And either of the mentioned two could win it.

Exactly.

Keener was great in Being John Malkovich and in An American Crime (which sadly will end up not being seen by anyone).

Having seen American Gangster, i'd question the right to Ruby Dee being nominated.
I was hardly thrilled by her performance.
I thought everyone was kind of predictable and boring in AG, especially Denzel.

I agree, very workman-like performances.

Updated- 12/29

Locks:

1. Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There
2. Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
3. Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton

Battling for the Last Two Spots:

4. Saoirse Ronan- Atonement
5. Catherine Keener- Into the Wild
6. Ruby Dee- American Gangster
7. Kelly Macdonald- No Country for Old Men
8. Jennifer Garner- Juno

Picking Up the Scraps:

9. Vanessa Redgrave- Atonement
10. Julia Roberts- Charlie Wilson's War

Can't say I understand why the hell Dee, Macdonald, or Roberts are even in the running, though. While I wasn't entirely thrilled with Keener, I get that she's there because she warmly plays a character who changes between her first and second appearances in the film. On the other hand, Dee and Macdonald really only have one memorable scene apiece and Roberts just shows up and tries to talk with a Texas accent. I'd much rather see Leslie Mann or Imelda Staunton in the running, honestly.

Even though Swinton's basically a lock, I really don't understand where all the raves for her performance come from. Same with Clooney. They were both good, but their performances were both awfully one-note. Only Wilkinson delivered what I'd call a "fantastic performance".

Actually I'd say Clooney was as far from one-note as you could expect in the genre.

Swinton too, though I don't really get the love for that performance all the same. She was good, but... Oscar nomination good? Didn't exactly blow me away. But then again I think she's great in most roles she does, so maybe that's why. There's not much to replace her with either.

I thought Kelly Macdonald in NCFOM was better...so was Marcia Gay Harden in The Mist...they had more to do...but that's just my opinion.

I loved Kelly Macdonald. She was really good in her short screen-time. I don't know why she hasn't popped up anywhere, has she?

WEAK category. If Catherine Keener gets nominated I will jump for joy!

I wish they'd just give one to Leslie Mann... the category is so weak, why the hell not.

ugh

I'm still really surprised Ryan has won most of the precursors, I did think we'd get a sweep in this category but from Blanchett, not her. Just seemed like the kinda performance the awards folk would go gaga over.

So right now I guess:

Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
Kelly MacDonald - No Country for Old Men

I love Swinton & Keener so it's hard to argue against their noms, but they're as good as always in these films but nothing standout due to limited screentime. Really I'd nominate Swinton in Narnia instead. Whether or not they get in depends on how much the Academy goes for their films.

Ruby Dee was hardly in Gangster so I refuse to believe the SAG...then for some reason I think the Academy isn't going to go too hogwild for Atonement (so see ya later Ronan), but will go crazy for NCFOM hence MacDonald. Plus I'd really like to see her get in so there's that too

IMDB has Jennifer Garner as their "dream nomination" in this category.

I think its odd that this website has put her out of the cat based on lack of prestiege, aside from Blanchett, no supporting actress' gig is as getting the buzz this one is. And i say that not as a garner fan, but as an awards spectator.

LOL

I know I'm not going to change your mind, but Amy Ryan is WAY WAY ahead of Garner in terms of buzz, and Swinton is also definitely ahead. Keener, Ronan and Dee also.

Garner is #7 here, absolute best case scenario at the moment.

Psh. Could be a fluke.

Yes, yes, that's all fine and good.

Stranger things have happened than Juno sweeping in a few extra noms under the buzz, though.

Buzz for a nomination, but no one is calling Amy Ryan or any of the other nominees particularly fantastic this year. Junos popularity is building more and more gumption for Garner.

Theres no doubt Garner deserves it more than Ruby Dee and several other hot favourites, and just keep in mind the Oscars do like Jennifer Garner, she has done presenting work for them on nuermous occasions.

The only two women getting all-round praise from critics AND audiences is Jennifer Garner and Cate Blanchett. The rest seem to be buzzing by default.

I guess its at least satisfying that shes getting the buzz and people are recognising her as a legit good actress now rather than a pretty face. I think that was an important barrier for her to break in movies to ensure any kind of longevity, and she will need to remind people with more strong performances that she is a brilliant actress, instead of picking romantic comedies all the time.

Some recent chatter about her performance from Google News

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/ ... 4576.shtml
"there's talk that Jennifer Garner is going to get a best supporting actress Oscar nomination for her role."

http://www.afterellen.com/blog/ace/2008 ... ent=437025
"And speaking of Juno, Ellen Page deserves a Best Actress nod, and Jennifer Garner arguably deserves a Best Supporting Actress nod for her wonderfully controlled performance."

http://www.morrisdailyherald.com/articl ... 8bjuno.txt
"The biggest surprise, though, belongs for Garner. Sure, she's a great actress and has proved it with a Golden Globe win for “Alias,” but it is really not until this movie that we are truly shown her acting chops without the use of action scenes. She expands he craft greatly as a woman desperate for a child of her own. There are several heartwarming and sensitive scenes of joy that showcase her dormant talent"

I thought Juno was far from Oscar worthy as a film, but I believe that Ellen Page, Jennifer Garner, and Allison Janney all deserve nominations for their work. Page deserves a win.

Have you seen either "Away From Her" or "La Vie en Rose"

Page is a breakthrough talent, but she's can't compare with the lead performances in those two. Especially not to Julie Christie.

All's Julie Christie did in Away from Her is look vacant eyed once in a while, she refused to let go of her glamour look long enough to convincingly portray Alzheimers. If she wins, it's on the nostalgia vote.

Marion Cotillard did a remarkable imitation in the lead role of Edith Piaf in La Môme, but she only lip-synchs the songs. She's excellent, but it is still only mimicry.

Ellen Page, however, creates an original character that is fully brought to life by her performance. She shows that her outstanding work in Hard Candy wasn't a fluke - - this is the beginning of the meteoric career of our newest great actress. She will win.



{Edit: Hey how'd this get in the best supporting actress thread?!}