Cuaron won for Gravity and basically Best Director locked up at the Oscar.

Best Picture is a dead heat between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave IMO.

Way to go, Cuaron!

This solidifies my belief that there is going to be a split at the Oscars - 12 Years will win Picture and Cuaron Director.

Peace,
Mike

Gravity does start to make more and more sense though given it has more nominations and will most likely win more awards even without a Picture win (should win 6 easily).

Believe Gravity wins, if it was going to be the rare DGA winner who loses BP, I think PGA would've gone to 12YAS straight out. Likewise McQueen getting DGA would've made so much sense if 12YAS was on its way to BP

Gravity is more of an "ode to cinema" film than 12YAS. In the end I think this will have outweighed the space setting sticking out among BPs

I can't disagree with your logic, xiayun. I just get the sense that 12 Years a Slave is very close in the race, and that the "film of historical importance" label it has will edge it past Gravity - hence Gravity not winning outright at the PGA, but Cuaron winning Director for his phenomenal work. It's also been a pretty consistent pattern so far across awards for 12 Years to win Picture and Cuaron Director.

But who knows - there are days I lean your way, as it does have more nominations and seems to have a lot of awards wrapped up, whereas I have no idea how 12 Years will do outside of Picture.

Peace,
Mike

I agree it's still very close. It's just if we base on the past stats (most noms, most wins, PGA/DGA combo), any film with that pedigree so far would have considered the frontrunner.

To me its basically going to be Cauron winning BD and Slave winning BP. Anything else would be a big surprise.

Awesome result. Gravity for Best Picture and Best Director.

Still think that 12 Years a slight favorite at BP even though Gravity has BD locked up (Hustle distant third). My impression is that Hollywood will perceive Gravity v, 12 Years to be another round of Clooney v, Pitt. except clooney already won last year and isn't a producer for Gravity. so a split vote will let Pitt get one to match Clooney's last year (and make up for Pitt not credited Oscar-winning producer for The Departed)

Calling this theory "a reach" would be an understatement. Why are Clooney and Pitt even being pitted against each other? Clooney's not even nominated for anything this year. That doesn't make sense, and Academy voters are not going to vote based on that reason.

SHOCKER

I hope 12 Years a Slave still wins Best Picture. It is superior to Gravity and American Hustle by leaps and bounds.

I love shit like this.

This hasn't proven to me yet that Gravity is above 3rd in this race. 12YAS is still the clear frontrunner, with AH the possible upset, due to its heavy Oscar nomination love. Cuaron is this year's Ang Lee: BD win without BP.

But Gravity tied for PGA too. The only movie in like the last 10 years to lose Best Picture with the PGA/DGA combo is Brokeback Mountain.

Not that I'm saying Gravity will win but it seems like a statistical dead heat between it and 12YAS right now.

Yeah, to say Gravity is third in the race right now is the same level of denial as those who claimed Argo was not the frontrunner going into the Oscars last year.

The PGA was a fluke. And it still tied, not a clear win.

The only point I will concede is that Gravity could be 2nd in the race... along with AH... and Nebraska... and Dallas Buyers Club... and Captain Phillips...

As much as I hate an overly predictable BP win, 12YAS is still a great and deserving winner.

lol x

Too bad there's no way of knowing if I'm right or wrong, since there is only one winner and it surely will be 12YAS.

Nono, as a PGA and DGA winner, Gravity is clearly ahead of American Hustle in the race, especially considering that it is a shoe-in to win at least 4 technical Oscars anyway and a near-lock to have more wins than any other film in total. That, its humongous box-office and the director's frontrunner status clearly place it ahead of all other contenders other than 12 Years a Slave.

Your post has more than two typos, which discredits you entirely.

My point, more than anything, is that nothing is challenging 12YAS here. I will concede that Gravity, based on the PGA tie, is ahead of American Hustle.

AH HAH!

There's no shame in admitting I'm wrong.

I hope I'm not Scott Tenorman in that.