If you have followed the early film festivals this year, there are three very likely candidates for success in the next Oscar race. Expect to hear more about these films over the coming months.

Chéri







Stephen Frears' follow-up to The Queen. It's going to have its big premiere at the Berlin film festival. It's a lavish film set in 1920's Paris. It could be a major Oscar player in

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Score

Cheri is being distributed by TWC.

Push



I'm sure you guys have heard all about Push, the Sundance story of 2009. It won't be a player in the big race BUT I think it will have a good shot at

Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay

Push is being distributed by Lionsgate, in association with Harpo Films and Tyler Perry's 34th Street Films.

Sugar



This is the follow-up to Anna Boden's and Ryan Fleck's Half Nelson. It's the story of a Dominican baseball player who is recruited to play in America. Like Push, it's outside the big race BUT will probably contend in

Best Actor
Best Original Screenplay

Sugar is being distributed by Sony Pictures Classics.

I saw the trailer for Sugar - looks really good.

How often do these early, small Actor nominations manage to reverberate throughout the year? I'm sure there were plenty of Sundance films last year with great performances that were all but forgotten by the fall.

Just from the past few years -

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson

Whether it's films in competition or those having premieres, yeah it's a pretty good indicator of possible success, especially when handled by a solid studio.

Michelle Pfeiffer and Kathy Bates in Cheri? Really looking forward to it.

Three of those films opened in August, but beyond that, I think you're missing my point. Sure, there are certainly exceptional cases, but for each Gosling or Jenkins there are going to be many, many more actors who get early whispers that don't materialize. That's not to say a Stephen Frears movie will get hosed - his talent alone means a film by him can't be ruled out - but the baseball drama? Mo'Nique? I'm doubtful.

Good thing Push and Sugar will probably hit the local Landmark Cinemas in the late summer/fall.

As long as no one talks about the Oscar chances of 500 Days of Summer.

Nope, just Mo'Nique.

What was her previous best performance? Beerfest?

Phat Girlz, duh.

Prior to JHud's Oscar nomination, I think it was a Burger King commercial and of course, American Idol.

I think the days of separating award season from actors paying their dues and such are way over. You're just as likely to get a Best Supporting Actress nomination as an acclaimed Brit with 50 years of stage experience in a top notch Oscar bait film, as you are someone Soderbergh saw on the 4th season of an obscure Canadian television drama and cast in his latest indie smash.

Reading through that Push thread, I am pretty awed. I guess the difference to me between JHud/Keisha-Castle Hughes etc. is that while those two were untested, Mo'Nique's repertoire includes Soul Plane, Half Past Dead, Beerfest etc. In that way, I think she's less comparable to JHud than she is to Anthony Anderson.

It would be easy to say that a heavyset black woman has to take what roles she can get, and Rourke shows how much the Oscars love a comeback story, but if she had more of her typical roles later on in the year I think that would hurt significantly, just like how Norbit railroaded Eddie Murphy.

Anthony Anderson has two SAG Award nominations and a NBR Award. I know, I know. It's insane.

Plus Mo'Nique's role does sound like a career epoch.

Push is getting in for both best supporting actress and best LEAD actress. mark my words.

who's the lead?

Gabourey Sidibe.

here are some clips and interviews from Push

Afer having seen the 4th season of The Shield...I was awed. In the right role, he's excellent.

...also, I don't agree that Push won't be a player in the big race.

When was the last tiem a Sundance winner was a player in the big race? Right, never. Never even come close, I'd say.

Remember the hype Grace is Gone had coming out of Sundance?

Anyway an acting nom is possible, maybe screenplay, but I doubt anything beyond that. I mean it does not have much to put it ahead of something like, say, Hustle & Flow.

In The Bedroom?

More Cheri talk

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/wi ... e-pfeiffer

Stephen Frears - 2 Oscar nominations
Michelle Pfeiffer - 3 Oscar nominations
Kathy Bates - 3 Oscar nominations (1 win)
Alexandre Desplat (Score) - 2 Oscar nominations
Darius Khondji (Cinematography) 1 Oscar nomination
Christopher Hampton (Screenplay) - 2 Oscar nominations (1 win)

So there are 2 movies named "Push" coming out in 2009?