Yup

No matter whether Slumdog wins Best Picture or not, I definitely see Boyle winning Best Director.

Anyone agrees?

In good conscience, I can't sign on. Even if that means Slumdog doesn't win BP and BD is the consolation prize.

I wish more people on KJ could actually see Slumdog.

If Milk wins BP I'm guessing Boyle gets BD. Milk is surprisingly conventionally and standardly shot for a GVS film, that's not to take any credit from him, but in the AMPAs eyes, they may choose to go with Boyle for that reason.

The main thing holding me back is Button. I think there's a possibility it really gets rolling with the guilds and maybe some b.o. success. It won't win BP without BD, and I could easily see a Milk/Fincher split too or something if they take over.

After all the critical raves, the wins and even two SAG noms, there's no way Slumdog won't win BP and BD. One has to go to it (maybe both) and I think that Boyle is stronger than the film itself.

I keep hearing the box office debate for Button. But I mean it's released on Christmas Day and ballots go out on the 26th and due back by the 12th. I guess we'd have a good idea of where its going to go Box Office-wise. But it certainly can't be too impressive over such a short period.

When do the winner ballots go out or are due

A Beautiful Mind was released at Christmas too but had 100 mil by February which really helped its cause

Out Dec 26th
Due Jan 12th

17 days and we all know those ballots pretty much go back within a few days.

As much as I love Slumdog, until major wins start pouring in (like SAG, etc.) I still see Button winning both.

I wouldn't be unhappy with Slumdog winning either mind you.

Huh they don't send the winner ballots out before the nominees are announced do they?

Box Office is a weird thing, and I think it depends on the timing and a thousand factors. I think if Buttons came out and it did Australia type numbers it wouldn't be a great sign, and if it comes out running and huge it raises it's profile, but if it does middling numbers then it doesn't have much of an impact.

I think box office is just part of the key to understanding the "cultural", "timely" impact of a particular film.

Slumdog won't even be nominated for BP anyway.

Whatever the case, at least BD will go to a guy who deserves it. Unless they give it to fucking Ron Howard again.

No, not winner ballots. Nominee ballots.

I could see Slumdog actually outgrossing Benjamin Button.

...Really? It's probably the only iron-solid lock to be nominated.

I think it could split with Milk or The Dark Knight or WALL-E. It could win too, though. I'm not saying it will definitely split, just that no matter what, Boyle is winning BP!

I could actually see Slumdog and Ben Button splitting BP/BD the other way around... Fincher's got more cred than Boyle, even if neither have been nominated before (I think). I don't know which way it'll go, but I really think these two films will split Picture and Director in some way. Nothing is dominating this year in the way that NCFOM/The Departed did last year, although Slumdog isn't far off from something like that.

I still stick with this claim.

I agree, and it'll win Picture, A. Screenplay and at least one tech award too.

I see Picture/Screenplay/Editing.

I think it's time for another Picture/Director split. Nolan? Van Sant, maybe, but the momentum's slowed down for Milk. I don't know if Ben Button has the support.

Milk is not a BD without BP movie, Van Sant plays it really, really straight, as much as Good Will Hunting and Finding Forrestor. His work is still good/great, but yea, Slumdog looks much more flashy from a Best Director standpoint, if anything it's Milk getting BP and Boyle BD.

Yeah, but I don't see Milk getting BP. At the same time, I don't see another BP/BD doubler...not three years in a row or in a year like this.

The BP/BD split is a LOT more uncommon than the last 10 years would have you believe. It's happened four times in the last ten years, but to collect the next four instances you have to go back thirty years:

1989 - Born on the Fourth of July/Driving Miss Daisy
1981 - Reds/Chariots of Fire
1972 - Cabaret/The Godfather
1967 - The Graduate/In the Heat of the Night

It's generally a once/twice a decade occurrence, with 5-10 years in between. The last few years have just been oddly extra-competitive, and I don't feel like Slumdog is gonna be stopped from winning both by Milk, especially when Boyle has been so insanely consistent.

Point taken.

I just saw Ben Button. The story is painfully contrived, but the performances, techs and direction save it. Fincher should be given an Oscar just for making a good film with some amazing moments out of the script.

Boyle's chances took a big hit with yesterday's release of Benjamin Button - - it's gonna be a shoot-out between Fincher and Boyle if voters decide to give the Best Pic Oscar to a crowdpleaser this year.

Though, if I were to judge it based on the audiences I saw these two with, the ultimate crowdpleaser was easily Slumdog - - the crowd gave it a full standing ovation, whereas Benjamin only a got a fairly widespread smattering of applause...