FINDING NEVERLAND
Miramax Films

MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Warner Bros.

SIDEWAYS
Fox Searchlight

THE AVIATOR
Miramax Films

THE INCREDIBLES
Walt Disney Pictures

Wow! Incredibles comes as a real surprise!

The biggest shock here is the exclusion of Ray. For a contender that has box office advantage, missing Producer Guild is very troubling, and that's after a few quite encouraging days of tech branch support.

I didn't expect Hotel Rwanda or Eternal Sunshine to score here, although getting one will enoumously boost their profile. The Pianist only grabbed a DGA nom. On the other hand, any last hope of Collateral for best picture is officially over.

The one that is helped the most is obviously Finding Neverland. If it gets a DGA nom tomorrow, it'll suddenly become a lock again after, I thought, a period of fading.

I wouldn't say it's a surprise since PGA nominated Shrek three years. They also nominated the first Harry Potter and My Big Fat Greek Wedding, so they like to include the big box office winners, although they did ignore Finding Nemo and Pirates last year.

Surprising in the way that they went with Incredibles instead of Ray. Since Ray will probably left out at the DGA as well it is really troublesome for their Oscar hopes

*cough* Once again, I'll state here that Ray won't be nominated for Best Picture....

However, the PGA once again boosted Finding Neverland's chances.

True. The five nominated look solid, but I was expecting 6 nominees like last couple of years and to see Ray in there. I think this moves Finding Neverland back to the No. 4 slot and continues to leave No. 5 wide open. Ray could still sneak in by the end even if it misses DGA again tomorrow, which I expect, since the industry support seems to be strong, then we'll be back to the same lineup as two months ago. I still have faith in Hotel Rwanda though. We'll see tomorrow with DGA, which is normally more crazy.

Sideways' nomination solidifies its slot for a best picture nomination.

I've been saying it for a while, Ray will not do very well outside of best actor.


The Incredibles will obviously not be nominated, so that might be the only one among the 5 nominees. Eternal Sunshine, Hotel Rwanda or Fahrenheit 9/11 are likely to take its place.

And finally, I don't know what it is with people and Finding Neverland...there has been no signs so far that it won't score a best picture nomination...yet people keep claiming its on shaky ground. Bias, maybe? :wink:

I was hoping for a surprise or two.

Who knows, The Incredibles might get nominated for the Oscar, it fulfills the top 5 of the year rule...

Man, these choices are boring. Completely expected films. I was hoping for a surprise. Meh.

PEACE, Mike

Well, I wrote this hole huge post on the level of excitement of this year's Oscar season and everyone's reaction, but I decided not to post it cuz it would fit better in some other thread...

About the PGA....

Aviator, Sideways, Million Dollar Baby are the absolute locks of the year.
this does help Finding Neverland and just confuses the next 2 slots even more.

Incredibles........

This will be my first time finally saying it and certainly not the last...
the movie to hate of the year for me is The Incredibles. I am starting to get REALLY annoyed from it.
Now granted I was very sleepy during my viewing and I will see it again on DVD, I know I didn't miss much when my eyelids were half open. I never actually dozed off, I saw the whole film!

I mean it seriously BOGGLES my mind the buzz and awards it's been recieving. The story started out good, something original, but after the first 20-25 minutes, it turned into one of those generic animated or family film storylines. COMPLETELY!!!!!! Sorry for the big animation experts, but I saw no REAL gargantuan advancement in animation from The Incredibles.
finding Nemo was significantly better and I am rooting for Shrek 2 this year ALL THE WAY.... even though I know Incredibles is gonna win!

And even though Rwanda missed out as well, you'll still find some bogus reason to support it still.

PGA almost never matches 5-5, so Finding Neverland (less likely) or The Incredibles (almost positively) will be replaced by something.

This really says nothing about Ray, Eternal Sunshine or Rwanda who are still (and always were) fighting it out for a spot, and Neverland isn't 100% safe either (although with the Golden Globe nomination, Marc Forster's name being tossed around a lot, it seems like the 4th slot now).

Ray still is, on paper, the best, best pic choice for slot #5 though.


Yeah, and that saddens me. Of the films I've had the opportunity to see (Rwanda and Million Dollar Baby haven't opened) it's FAR less deserving of any notice than almost any nominee that's been trumped up.

If George gets a DGA nomination tomorrow, I'll fully bow down to the godliness of Dr. Lecter. But I think what you'll see tomorrow is...

Martins Scorsese
Clint Eastwood
Alexander Payne
Mark Forster

then one of the following:

Michael Gondry
Michael Moore
Mel Gibson
Mike Nichols

(the M's)

Before you see Terry George or Taylor Hackford.

It's quite clear to me now, that despite it being not incredibly great, Forster is the name that people want to prop up this year.

Terry George won't be nominated and neither will be Taylor Hackford

As you have said, that doesn't mean much.

All I am saying is that Ray WAS actually expected to be nominated for PGA. Hotel Rwanda wasn't expected to be nominated for that in first place.

Definately not by me. In fact it's no surprise that the Producers Guild picked the "best" of the biggest motion pictures of the year to nominate.


I wouldn't expect either of them to be nominated. Ray and Rwanda are both really indie. To tell you the truth, I didn't even think Sideways was a lock for the PGA. The PGA is always thought to be one of the more political oriented guilds and despite the one year Miramax snub, it doesn't surprise me to see Disney owned films (3 of 'em!) take up slots.

Finding Neverland is now, I think it's clear, the #4 or #5 slot.

And that pisses me off, it's so not worthy :x

Finding Neverland is not a lock yet. Eternal Sunshine and Hotel Rwanda can both beat it. However, I think FN will be nominated. FN looks to me like last year's Big Fish which is actually a good thing. Oh and Depp rules.

Oh and ay is actually one of the highest-grossing oscar contenders. It actually made more than all noms, but The Incredibles

I agree Sideways wasn't a lock for PGA because Lost in Translation missed out PGA last year. However, Ray is certainly not an indie. It fits very well with PGA's mold of good box office run, strong tech support, and sentimental factor. So the exclusion of Ray is definitely telling. If it misses DGA tomorrow, it's certainly in trouble. It will then need a WGA or a SAG Ensemble out of the other big guilds, neither of which looks likely at this point. The only problem right now is no other film has a convincingly strong profile so far to definitely replace Ray. That's why I'm thinking more and more seriously about Eternal Sunshine's chance. Remember the way the ballots are counted and how the 5 nominees are selected. I could see it being No.2 and No. 3 in enough ballots to get nominated.

I don't read too much into PGA until paired with DGA. Last year, it's DGA that shook up the race, when Cold Mountain was snubbed (nominated for PGA), while Sofia was nominated (LiT missed PGA). DGA also matches with Oscar better than PGA historically.

If Ray couldn't, why would Eternal Sunshine and Hotel Rwanda?


The Incredibles obviously took it's spot!


If I remember correctly, Ray was produced independently and purchased by a major after completion. Of the remaining contendors, it's actually one of the more indie of the bunch.


It's quite possible that the DGA could pick Mike Nicols or Mel Gibson or Michael Moore... directors which pictures have no chance (theoretically). The only way it will look bad for Ray (in my opinion) is if Terry George or Michael Gondry is voted for Best Director. And then nothing is certain because Picture and Director never usually match up anyway.

Otherwise, the DGA might not tell us anything.

Rwanda and Ray probably won't get Ensemble. Closer will probably. Does this make Closer a bigger contendor again? The Aviator will get ensemble, Baby will, Sideways definately will... Neverland? maybe not.

Welcome to the land of confusion. A muddled mess of the remaining films.

Long as we're on the Ms, don't forget Michael Mann. He's the most "M" of them all and I could definitely see him sliding into fifth.

Well, maybe we should just nominate three films this year and call it a day.

Ray is vulnerable, but as I stated before, unfortunately no other films are making significant waves due to the fact that Sideways dominated the critic group awards before it's too late for the critics to realize they gave Sideways much more supports than it needed to grab an oscar nod, and they could've allowed another film to emerge as the co-favorite among indie films. That's why Scott from New York Times dropped Sideways a few slots from his list. Eternal Sunshine was the runner-up for many groups, but general reporting doesn't really pay attention to runner-ups. This could've been a wide-open year, but somehow the # of available choices are amazingly small.

Maybe they should because those 3 are all anybody seems to carry about.

With the exception of Rwanda which isn't released yet, there seems to be like 10 films in contention that everybody is "meh" about.

This is so 1998.

Looks like it at least. I mean, honestly, none other will win in the end.

As for the winner prediction, The Aviator should take PGA with ease.

Yep.

Anything else would be a huge upset.

*bump since winner is announced tomorrow

An interesting post from OW:



So if The Aviator does win the PGA as expected, does its chance at the Oscar decrease?

You know as hard as it is to see, MDB could maybe pick up the PGA because alot of people don't realize as the posts above prove, Clint's film last decade didn't win the PGA, just the Oscar.

I mean, this could all be coincidence too! :wink:

But it wouldn't suprise me if Aviator wins PGA and doesn't win Oscar.