I'm not kidding.

First, journalists vote for the globes. Not actors.

In the past six years, five times the winner of the award is either the critics' darling or the audience's darling (biggest BO).

2005 - Walk the Line - audience's darling [it won over Pride and Prejudice, which only had 2% better reviews on RT and had 1/3 the box office!]
2004 - Sideways - critic's darling [over RAY, bitches. you remember that!]
2003 - Lost in Translation - critic's darling
2002 - Chicago - critic's darling and audience's darling
2001 - Moulin Rouge - the exception
2000 - Almost Famous - critic's darling [the only contender, besides Chocolat, which wasn't a contender until Weinstein sold his soul to the devil]

Moulin Rouge is the exception because it won Best Actress and was, like Crash, a movie that some audiences and critics were extremely, extremely passionate for (is that the right preposition?), moreso than any other movie. Also, did I mention it won Best Actress!

But it doesn't matter, because no one's really passionate about Dreamgirls (more JenHud), Borat had reviews of Sideways, Lost in Translation, Chicago, and Almost Famous nature. People love it - more passionately and consistently (if those are words) than Dreamgirls.

And they're journalists, for crying out loud. Fuck, they LOVE Borat. They love the lawsuits, they love the political relevance, they love the amazing box office. And they also love the movie!

Another trend(s). The best picture winner either wins Best Actor, Best Actress, or Best Screenplay, unless the winner is animated or children's or whatever (Toy Story 2 in '99, Babe in '95, The Lion King in '94, Beauty and the Beast in '91)

2005 - Walk the Line - Best Actor and Best Actress
2004 - Sideways - Best Screenplay
2003 - Lost in Translation - Best Actor
2002 - Chicago - Best Actor and Best Actress
2001 - Moulin Rouge - Best Actress
2000 - Almost Famous - the exception
1998 - Shakespeare in Love - Best Actress and Best Screenplay
1997 - As Good As It Gets - Best Actor and Best Actress
1996 - Evita - Best Actress
1993 - Mrs. Doubtfire - Best Actor
1992 - The Player - Best Actor

Look at Best Actor - Comedy/Musical. Is there any possible way Sasha Baron Cohen doesn't win this? If he doesn't win, it's because these golden globe-awarding "journalists" are fucking pussies. But he'll win anyways. Johnny Depp? HAH. Will Ferrell? Uhuh. Aaron Eckhart? He's annoying. Chiwetel Ejiofor? They won't vote for him, the announcer might trip on his name.

Look at Best Actress - Comedy/Musical. Is there any possible way Beyonce Knowles (she's the one who sang Bootylicious like four years ago, FYI) WILL win the award? Over Meryl Streep or Toni Collette? Hahahahahahaha. Even if Streep or Collette doesn't win, they've still got Bening and Zellweger. Collette aside, she's fighting three people whom the Globes love. And she wasn't even acclaimed in the film, really.

Look at Best Screenplay. Oh SNAP! None of the comedies were nominated.

In conclusion, Borat, trend-wise, is the one to beat. JenHud may be amazing, but Jamie Foxx didn't lead no Ray (which critics loved more than Dreamgirls, it seems) to any Best Picture award. The only way it doesn't win is if Dreamgirls is a huge box office success. Otherwise, the trend breaks.

Why?

- it's the critic's darling
- it's the audience's darling
- it'll win best actor
- dreamgirls won't
- little miss sunshine is gay, because steve carell didn't get a nomination

D'uh. This is a lock.

Dreamgirls ain't got nothing on Boratttt.

I really like the Best Comedy/Musical category this year.

I loved Little Miss Sunshine, Borat, and Prada. ANd I'm sure I'll love Dreamgirls.

Thank You for Smoking was just OK but whatever.

Not jumping on the wagon just yet.

But I think it's a possibility.

I have it ahead of Little Miss Sunshine for the award for sure.

Very good chance.

This would really upset a few people... why not?

Fox needs to start campaigning. There hasn't been an FYC yet, and there's no mention of the nominee on the Borat website.

They've got a better chance winning with this than LMS, so...

(and, of course, Sasha is one of the contenders for an Oscar nomination, so they should AT LEAST be campaign for that)

Not happening (though I'd love it if it did!)