LAFCA announces tonight, and has been known to take forever (In 2003 they stayed up until about midnight L.A. time picking Best Picture). Hopefully that won't be the case this year. Here's Tom O'Neil on the nutty voting system and how we could be in for some nutty noms:

http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_gol ... er_no.html

AFI also announces today, although they usually don't mean that much, as they're 100% American (No Queen or Children of Men or even Babel!). NYFCC announces tomorrow afternoon.

The two links that'll have you on the edge of your seat tonight and tomorrow:

http://www.lafca.net/Home/home.html

http://www.nyfcc.com/awards.php

I think it just might be too British for them. M&C and Moulin Rouge were at least Hollywood productions. I'm not sure how Hollywood CoM is.

But you still have hope with LAFCA, where CoM apparently has a few fans.

As for their predictability, they're usually in the 3 to 4 out of five range, with last year an apparently rare exception (Although at that point we didn't know Capote and Crash were actual contenders), so yeah, that should be interesting.

I feel like I don't much care about the AFI's list.



Last year was the only time they got all 5 nominees.

And Maria Full of Grace is American? Really?

About as American as Letters from Iwo Jima or Apocalypto. It was done by an American filmmaker, and half of it DOES take place in America. It's just in a foreign language for accuracy, like the two above.

Yeah. If I remember correctly, its American production and direction also disqualified it from being nominated in the Foreign Film category at the Oscars two years ago.

Actually, I consider AFI the first real indicator.

If you consider eligibility then the only films nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars that were missed by AFI since 2000 are Seabiscuit and Ray. That's it. That means if you miss the AFI list (and you are deemed a US film) then you're basically screwed. It's not a good thing to miss this list if you are eligible, especially if you want to win The Oscar (the winner has always been on the list).

So, I consider it a very good indicator in that respect. You simply can't use it for non-US films (i.e. The Queen), which means The Queen won't be affected by the AFI results.

Peace,
Mike.

So, basically what we're looking for in the AFI is Dreamgirls. And if it's not there, I guess a BP win would be hard to come by.

Exactly. AFI's not an exact science, but no precursor awards are. AFI can give you a good indication though for certain films.

Peace,
Mike.

LA WINNERS:

Picture: "Letters From Iwo Jima"
Runner-up: "The Queen"

Director: Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
Runner-up: Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters From Iwo Jima"

Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat" and Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" (tie) (no runner-up)

Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Runner-up: Penelope Cruz, "Volver"

Supporting actor: Michael Sheen, "The Queen"
Runner-up: Sergi Lopez, "Pan's Labyrinth"

Supporting actress: Luminita Gheorghiu, "The Death of Mr. Lazarescu"
Runner-up: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

Screenplay: Peter Morgan, "The Queen"
Runner-up: Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, "Children of Men"
Runner-up: Tom Stern, "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters From Iwo Jima"

Production design: Eugenio Caballero, "Pan's Labyrinth"
Runner-up: Jim Clay and Geoffrey Kirkland, "Children of Men"

Music: Alexandre Desplat, "The Queen" and "The Painted Veil"
Runner-up: Thomas Newman, "The Good German" and "Little Children"

Foreign-language film: "The Lives of Others"
Runner-up: "Volver"

Documentary/non-fiction film: "An Inconvenient Truth"
Runner-up: "Darwin's Nightmare"

Animation: "Happy Feet"
Runner-up: "Cars"