Go Clint!!!! Amazing! Now Queen is out of the race, altough a nod is possible. We have Letters, Departed and Dreamgirls. Remember that NBR have never liked musicals, they prefer dramas, that's why I'm surprised that Little Children isn't in the top 10.

I'd say that's a myth. Moulin Rouge won NBR, and Chicago was in their top 10.

That's not technically true. A Beautiful Mind did not make the NBR top 10 list yet went on to be nominated and WIN at the Oscars.

Peace,
Mike.

Yeah if anything, (recently) they like Musicals or British films.

Having Notes on a Scandal in but not The Queen does look bad (both with British veterans), but maybe they thought Mirren is enough of a representation. If Mirren had lost to Kate or Cruz, I'd be very worried. Right now I will resist the urge to make too much out of NBR and see what transpire in the next week; the award season is just getting started.

Yeah, as fun as it is to see winners finally, we still have many, many precursors to go. Movies start falling out of the race once the Globes announce.

Okay... just saw the list and I'm super-excited. This makes the race ALOT more interesting. I know it's only the beginning but ah well, we have much to discuss!

1. Shocked with Letters taking top spot. The only way a Clint movie is NOT going to get nominated is f FOOF and LFIJ split the vote.

2. Solidifies The Departed's nod (as if it weren't solid enough) and as of now, keeps it as the front-runner with the absence of Dreamgirls.

3. Little Miss Sunshine is almost locked up as well. There's no way GG nods next week can hurt; it will either keep it at its place or make it a stronger contender.

4. The Queen: After seeing it (I gave it an A), I knew there was no chance it could ever take the win. It's one of those small films that's almost flawless but it has no big 'it' factor. I think it's still good enough for a nod unless the next month really kills its buzz.

The Oscar nominees at this point should be...

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima/Flags of our Fathers
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
(Babel will get in if Eastwood films split the vote)

I just don't see any other vuable contenders at this point. Volver has an outside chance but the Foreign Lanuage category really deters me from placing it in this list of contenders.

5. Little Children should be out of the race now. It's box office isn't impressive. It's reception/WOM isn't the best, and it just never build up enough buzz to really go anywhere. Unfortunately, that may affect Winslet's chances ata nomination... but I still think she's one of the top contenders for the last 2 spots (top 3 being Mirren, Streep, and Cruz).

6. I really am quite baffled with Notes on a Scandal, History Boys, and Painted Veil mentions on that list. Happy to see Devil Wears Prada up there (YAYY). Blood Diamond seems to have strong support among a few (just saw Roeper's review the other day) but I don't think the numbers will be enough for it to be a serious contender.

Yay at No Dreamgirls. Booh at No United 93.

The Queen should not be in BP contention anymore. As I said all along, the movie is her performance which mean she'll win every awards thrown in her way, but the picture won't be nominated. It's "Monster" with a Queen instead of a serial killer

Monster didn't come close to The Queen in term of reviews:

Metacritic - 75 for Monster with 1 100 (Ebert), 91 for The Queen with 12 100s;
RT - 80% with 7.1 average for Monster, 98% with 8.4 average for The Queen;
BFCA - 89 for Monster and 95 for The Queen

It's actually absurd to compare the two. The Queen remains a strong contender for a nom just because it is one of the best, if not the best, reviewed films of the year with strong box office. Last year, people thought Capote, and to some degree Crash, was dead after GG ignored them. To make such a big statement after just NBR is way too premature.

EDIT: more, even go by the content of the reviews instead of numbers, you should see they are very different between Monster, which basically just talked about Theron, and The Queen, which is called one of the best films of the year by many critics and has them spent a lot more inks on aspects other than Mirren.

What's crap like World Trade Center searching there?

I just meant that it i such a overpowering performance that people might thight "Wow. Mirren is awesome, but without her it wouldn't be such a perfect movie". And since evryone knows she's going to win the Oscar, there's no need to reward the movie. I've said all along The Queen won't get a BP nomination and so far, I'm sticking to it.

I just meant that it i such a overpowering performance that people might thight "Wow. Mirren is awesome, but without her it wouldn't be such a perfect movie". And since evryone knows she's going to win the Oscar, there's no need to reward the movie. I've said all along The Queen won't get a BP nomination and so far, I'm sticking to it.

But isn't it the same thing could be said about Capote or Ray?

Yeah, but this year's competition might be a tad stronger

I think that was the argument for Walk the Line's snubbing, which at this point last year everyone considered it to be just as much of a lock as The Queen because of the acting.

Better late than never...

Impressive for Letters from Iwo Jima. Looks like the battle for the last two spots (I still consider Dreamgirls, The Quuen and The Departed for granted) will be between an Eastwood flick, Little Miss Sunshine and United 93.

VERY weird Top 10 list, though.

The History Boys?!?! Babel?!?! Notes on a Scandal?!?!

I gotta wonder, though whether The Psinted Veil will end up in contention for some awards. I mean it looks good and it does look a bit baity. The cast is top-notch. Who knows... I certainly could see a nom for Watts.

Forest Whitaker's chances are somewhat increased now, I think with The Pursuit of Happyness faltering with reviewers and WB somehow screwing up Leo for The Departed (and Blood Diamond not seeming to make such a dent at the box-office or with reviewers). So, either Whtiaker or O'Toole at this point, IMO.

The Departed is a true winner, though with Berst Director/Best Ensemble wins and a Top 10 placement.