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 Sure-Fire nominations, 2005. 
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I'm almost ready to say King Kong is a sure thing.

I don't see how it will miss. Out of the 7 or so contenders still kicking, 2 spots are taken. Brokeback and Munich. For the other 3, we have 5 movies. King Kong, Crash, Capote, Good Night, and Walk the Line.

If Line gets in presumably, there's two spots left. 4 movies. King Kong, Crash, Capote, and Good Night.

King Kong VERY much differs from the other three. King Kong is the blockbuster tech powerhouse, that will get all the publicity.

Crash, Capote, and Good Night on the other hand are all small/indie, all are reliant on their acting, etc.

King Kong is aiming at it's own boat. and Crash/Capote/Good Night are aiming at something completley different. The movies in the same boat as Kong are Memoirs, The New World, and The Producers. They have proven to be not on the same level, and Kong should be the one taking that slot.

If the Academy chooses two of Crash/Capote/Good Night, the movie that would be in danger is not Kong anyways. It would be straight up Walk the Line, which has been at a standstill for a while.

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Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:58 pm
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The NBR strengthened my belief in GNGL being a lock for a Best Picture nom. Actually even moreso than Walk the Line.

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Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:09 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
The NBR strengthened my belief in GNGL being a lock for a Best Picture nom. Actually even moreso than Walk the Line.


I completely agree. Not only was I shaky about GNAGL's nom before because it was small (though I always had it in my top 5), now that I'm sure its in, I think it's gonna provide some competition.

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Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:27 pm
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Actually as of now, movies in likelyhood for a Best Picture nomination are:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk the Line
5. King Kong

6. Crash
7. Capote
8. Match Point

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Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:31 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Actually as of now, movies in likelyhood for a Best Picture nomination are:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk the Line
5. King Kong

6. Crash
7. Capote
8. Match Point


Ya, I agree (for like the tenth time :happy: )

I think Crash and Capote are gaining serious ground but bottom line is I don't think voters will choose another indie over monster Kong. That will make it 3 indies, 1 star-power but fading vehicle, and Munich!

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Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:36 pm
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After the announcement of GG's this is what my list looks like:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk the Line
5. King Kong

6. Match Point
7. The Constant Gardener
8. Crash

Capote is out.

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Tue Dec 13, 2005 3:41 pm
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"Both super hot now… in fact, I wish I knew how to quit them…"

- Scott Feinberg at OW, on Brokeback and Good Night being surefire noms. :smile:


Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:38 am
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Post Re: Sure-Fire nominations, 2005.
dolcevita wrote:
They all come from the same movie, Capote

Its going to be up there for a bp nom
Hoffman will be a best actor nom (even the winner)
and Keener will be there for best supporting actress. They are the only sure-fire ones for me right now.


Tee. :blush:

I know, 'twas easy, but whatever, you naysayers.


Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:45 am
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Diane Keaton seemed so locked back then... :sad:


Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:06 pm
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