Best Actor:
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck.

Best Actress:
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Original Screenplay:
The Squid and the Whale
Match Point
Cinderella Man
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Crash

Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Munich
Syriana

Director:
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich


Don't know about their FYCs yet.

Very very solid work, IMO. Quite close the WOKJ consenseus. I guess it isn't too hard to get things mostly right at this point though.

Crowe vs. Howard for Best Actor.

Really there seems to be a surprise in some categories > Crowe, Theron, Capote but no Walk the Line, etc

and maybe expected but no King Kong / Peter Jackson

They expect a Best Picture snub for WTL? Interesting...

They'll probably be pretty spot on as usual...I am surprised they think Crowe will get in over Howard for Best Actor but if the Academy does go that way it wouldn't really be a shock. Their Supporting categories are exactly what I predicted a few days ago, great minds predict alike Biggest surprise is the lack of Walk the Line in BP, I hope they're right but I still think it's in.

I think so to. Support for the movie seems decent, but very few people are passionate about it (they have a ranking system now remember). Plus, many will figure that giving nods to Joaquin and Reese will be reward enough, which is the case for many movies as well.

Whoever compares this to Ray...

Ray had more critical support and I would say that Jamie Foxx made more sound for the movie on the way to its nom, than any of WTL's leads. Then there is the lack of a DGA nom, the lack of a Golden Globe Director nom and the lack of a SAG ensemble nom.

James Mangold being so weak in the director race pretty much dooms Walk the Line's chance at anything higher than the No. 5 position. If Munich had done just fractionally better with guilds, I'd put Munich in without hestitation, but it's getting ignored left and right except for Spielberg's 10th DGA nomination. It's fascinating.

And Ray got in by a sliver as the 5th nom over Hotel Rwanda last year. So yeah, they'd better be thanking their lucky stars that Munich has pulled off the worst Oscar push/campaign humanly possible. They'd be basicly dead in the water at this point...

and as Walk the Line has been discussed, which I first caught above.

how about Capote, that so far I only mentioned, is that really a contender, for Best Picture as most said before NO.

Maybe it's just the fact that any predictions they put up at this point would make me skeptical, but looks like this year is really fucking everyone up. Although we keep seeing alot of the same names and titles being called at awards and such, almost none of them have any real momentum or steam behind them.

I think they have Actress (unless Joan Allen gets in over Charlize or Judi Dench), Supporting Actress and perhaps Director nailed.

However, I see Terrence Howard getting nominated for Hustle & Flow and not Crash. Also, I still think Walk The Line will be in over Capote for Picture.

I think it's more like that Ziyi will receive a nomination instead of Theron(though I'm secretly hoping Joan Allen will sneak in). And I doubt Crowe will get in for Actor, I think Terrence Howard will be nominated. Does anyone think Howard might be nominated for both Leading and Supporting?

I *seriously* doubt Zhang Ziyi. I've been saying forever she wouldn't get nominated (even before bad buzz on Geisha started to come out) and I stand by it. Charlize won an Oscar and her performance has been popping up for nominations several times despite the film bombing at the box office.

Charlize's recent Oscar win though, makes her more vulnerable as she is not seen as someone who has been snubbed or something. It may seem too soon for Oscar voters to vote her again after 2 years. Heh. Best Actress is really weak this year as there are really few performances that have been loved. The last spot could really go anywhere.

I think Ziyi's chance is strong, not just because of a strong GG-SAG combo, but also because articles all over the place keep mentioning her. She is just really hot right now with all the movies she's done in the past couple of years.

I won't be surprised if both Ziyi and Theron make it, as they did at SAG. There is no reason to think they're competing for one spot at this moment, since Keira has been fading lately.

I still believe Walk the Line will get nominated for Best Picture, regardless of what the mighty EW says.

You know what? I was still in that boat as well, until today.

Despite what I thought about the film WTL just provides too much counter-balance and mainstream-ism not to get a nod now.

However, overwhelming support from the guilds (alot of whom are Academy voters) for Capote has seriously tipped the scales.

Basically, as long as Capote gets more #1 ranks on ballots than WTL, it's in.
Then WTL would have to duke it out with most chart toppers against Munich or Crash, both of which I see WTL losing against.

At this point, I'm almost ready to call Capote more of a lock than Crash. Yes, call me crazy. Then again, neither Capote nor Crash got a Globe nomination and that hurts Crash more than Capote.

There is no way that Zhang Ziyi won't get nominated! Except for her and Terrence Howard, the acting categories look like the KKK awards roster...