Last year I made a poll on what was the closest race of the last Oscars, for Best Picture. This year, in my opinion, the race is equally close for the Best Actor Oscar. As of now, we are pretty much down to the actors who have any chance at a win, so a poll on this is a fair game.

Personally, I feel the race will be down to Ledger (who has the advantage of Brokeback Mountain receiving more general love and awards) and Hoffman (who is a clear critics favorite). The Golden Globes will give one of the two a slight edge, of course.

Phoenix is also still in the running and Strathairn could pull an Adrien Brody on us as well, being a dark horse of the race.

As of now, however, I put my money on Hoffman.

I am going to try and see Capote tomorrow, and I've seen Stritham and Phoenix's performances. Its hard to vote without seeing BBM

I'm gonna say Hoffman.

Oh and btw, I would put Terrance Howard in the poll as the 5th option. If anybodys the real dark horse/Adrian Brody, it's him.

disagree that best actor is going to be the closest race

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so as the nominations aren't even out yet are we going to bypass all of the existing nominations threads and set up who will win all of the awards?

Sure, why not. As long as the nominees in question are locks and it is absolutely sure that one of them will win.

I think it's Heath Ledger. Esp. if BBM doesn't win best pic.

Or specially if it does... But yeah, Ledger. The big thing against him right now is the age factor, but I still think they'll give it to him, specially if Brokeback takes Picture, like I said..

Another interesting fact: in the past 10 years, the best actor winner came from a BP nominee 8 times.. the exceptions being Nicolas Cage and Denzel Washington (in a very special year, I might add).

Hoffman.

He's been ignored too long not to get this.

Hoffman, what's the next thread.

I agree.

and I just thought of this, wasn't his Capote performance alittle similar to his Ripley performance, in mannerism at least.

Outside of the "fey" angle, they're very dissimilar.

It's going to be a close one between Hoffman and Ledger. The folks at Oscarwatch seem to think that they might cancel each other out, resulting in a surprise third-party winner.

If Brokeback's slow rollout release schedule is timed right, then Ledger (and Ang Lee and BBM) might "peak" exactly during the voting. We'll know more after the Globes.

Ok - take your word for that as I haven't seen Ripley since the 1 time in the theater.

Looks like Hoffman's parade is almost unstoppable and with Capote gaining strength now, I think Hoffman has the clear edge over Ledger now.

I think Hoffman will get it, the movie's huge resurgence with the guilds certainly gave Hoffman a big push as there's almost no way Capote will take BP (if nominated). Ledger's the main competition obviously but unless the Oscars go completely gaga for Brokeback, I don't see him winning.

Hoffman. Not that Ledger doesn't deserve it, all four of the men who we are referencing deserve it.

I haven't seen Hoffman's performance but I wouldn't be upset with...

Ledger
Strathairn
Pheonix
Howard
Bana
Mortensen

It's another strong year for male performance.

Hoffman WAS Capote.

It will be a well deserved win (unless he sinks MI3 that is, then I'll hate him).

Hoffman will have the edge over Ledger, methinks.

I don't think Ledger ever was the front-runner. there may have been a few days or a week's worth, but I never, myself, saw him nor saw him portrayed as ever having an edge over the other actors.

The front-runner status went straight from Pheonix to Hoffman in the November-December transition. Ledger gained enormous steam throughout November and continued in December. His reviews for the film were very much the most glowing reviews for any actor this year back when we only had a few reviews in (early November) but the film had still such a question mark around it and WTL was getting released that he never was considered for the win, at the least by me.

I thought LEdger gave an outstanding performance that deserves the win. But Hoffman knocked it out of the planet. I agree with haerpinot in that unless Brokeback just about sweeps the Academy off its feet, its almost certainly going to the finally recognized Hoffman.

I am, overall, thoroughly impressed by the acting this year for this category. Again, we have an outstanding list and everyone who gets in will have deserved it as well as some who don't get in. But the win belongs, rightfully, to Hoffman.

Hoffman deserves it more than anyone else.

It would be funny if Hoffman wins actor and Huffman wins actress.

Huffman, Hoffman.

Comedic gold.