Now that Cinderella's earning potential has been capped around the low 100s, how does this change it's chances?

I still think Crowe, Crowe, Crowe, will probably be on his way to another nomination. But Renee? Not Likely. And the shift is away from Giamatti and towards Crowe for acting so I'm not so sure there. Not so sure it ever had a Screenplay chance, so does that hurt Picture/Director.

It actually performed worse than I expected.

My thought: If you are predicting Cinderella Man for Best Picture/Director at this point, it is as the weak 5th swing canidate. The Ray/Seabiscuit slot.

I'm disappointed in the box office run so far. A lot of Cinderella Man's Oscar strength, particularly Best Picture, lies in its ability to break $100 Million domestic.

Now it's becoming a great film released during the summer that no one saw.

And one that doesn't do very well at the box office.

Like Road to Perdition, I can see it getting some nominations (not 7 though),but I dont know where? Are the technical aspects of the film strong? Costume design maybe?

I have heard NOTHING about Giamatti somehow being a standout in the film or anything, so I'm not sure he can pull one off for THIS movie? He'll definitely be nominated eventually, but I'm skeptical that this is the film that will do it for him.

I knew he wasn't in Jarhead. :razz:

In terms of tech nominations, Cinderella Man could have a strong showing. At the same time, I'm not sure the other period films this winter are willing to give an inch.

Memoirs will get nominated for techs, Oliver Twist will get nominated for techs, Producers will get nominated for techs. That reduces the field greatly and CM could very well be off the radar (which is a shame).

Jarhead? Huh? I'm confused.


:razz:


This doesn't seem to be the kind of film to get a boost from a DVD release even, so its best hope is that there are some people out there who REALLY love it.

:wink:

Cinderella Man needed big numbers this summer. I agree that the DVD won't have a real effect.

Hehehe you mean Memoirs... I was like "WTF IS MEMORIES".


Whoa whoa whoa. Oliver Twist could very concievably go nowhere with the box office and be lost in the glut of period pieces.

The Producers... everybody puts this on lists but it's stats are NOWHERE NEAR what they need to be to be considered a frontrunner in ANY category at this point.


I agree... strangly enough, Cinderella's biggest threat is the 1930s era costumes coming from King Kong, from a costume designer who's been nominated by the Austrailan Film Institute TEN times!

Beware of the King Kong set design and costume designs, they are pretty great.

The reason I'm throwing so much love behind The Producers is that it has the DNA of a smash hit film. However, just like Cinderella Man, it needs great box office and reviews.

Memoirs (sorry about the earlier typo, lol) isn't as dependent on $$, it has a great release date and no one is expecting big numbers. If it breaks out, it only helps.

I've been quiet on Kong for a number of reasons, mainly because I havent seen a trailer (but we will all see some footage in 2 1/2 weeks) and because of my vocal support of LOTR over the years. Kong could very well be the big film to get a BP nomination.

Oliver Twist would have to be dreck to not get tech nominations. Whether or not it comes to the big party, remains to be seen.

(oddly, IMDB lists Vengence as 2006 now, so we'll ahve to see how this develops, I've read nothing else about a push back to 2006)


While I can respect this, I have to disagree. Source material alone has been proven in recent years NOT to be something that drives people to go see movies... just because your musical is a beloved hit, doesn't mean your film is (Phantom of the Opera, etc.) will be. Tony awards essentially mean nothing.

1. - It's a remake of the 1968 Mel Brooks movie to an extent.
2. - Directed by Susan Stroman, in her first feature, with a crew that's pretty young
3. - Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick both don't inspire the term "Oscar bait"
4. - It will not get a Screenplay nod due to the remake factor
5. - Acting nods are going to be tough for a comedy, and for this particular cast
6. - December cometition for the hearts and minds of movie goers will more likely to be captured by the combo of Narnia, Kong, Vengence and Memoires.
7. - Released by Universal who has other HUGE contendors this year (including Vengence, Cinderella, Jarhead, Kong.)

Could it get a Golden Globe nomination? Yes, but one has to consider the type of film it is and the ease at which musicals seem to land in the musical/comedy column.


Which, it has very questionable ability to do in it's time slot.


It's also got somewhat the cast (although the cast is "foreign"), the director, a loving studio, the best release date of the year, and a production team that has experience. It's not quite as reliant on it's Box Office performance as other films are. Both the Producers and Memoris will not have time to garner their box office success before nominations are due, unless they are smash hits.


BP, screenplay, Director will be tough nominations for Kong, but what people need to watch out for with this and Worlds and maybe Star Wars and Batman and Potter is that they could really dominate a lot of the techs and the second tier awards.


Nah. You gotta remember that there are only 5 slots, and in categories like... say costumes... the costume guild usually doesn't nominate all period pieces. Oliver Twist doesn't have a Focus Features this year, they have Sony Pictures. Aside from Ben Kingsley, who despite his Oscarish presence has had a less than thrilling career lately, and Polanski, who is no longer in the "owed an Oscar" column, this film really would be lucky with any recognition this year.

If Vengeance gets pushed back, I'm going to lose my mind.

I was and still am weary about the choice of directors for Producers but I still think it will come through (or hope at least). It's GG success is a sure thing since it's a musical and they love musicals. It's a nonfactor.

Didn't Turin push everything back a week? If so, that extra window of time will allow Xmas releases like The Producers to grow legs.

Memoirs is definitely the pedigree film of the year (second only to perhaps Cinderella Man). Oscar bait for sure.

Kong is really the wild card in terms of BP for me. We can rule out Kingdom and for the most part Cinderella Man. Sith can't do it, that leaves Batman Begins, War of the Worlds, Narnia, and Kong. I'm holding steadfast to my prediction that a major box office success will get nominated. I think there won't be a repeat of last year anytime soon.

You're right about the Costume Guild, there will be contemporary films included. But I still say Oliver Twist has the scope to get tech nominations. It could falter under pressure from other films, but I'm not predicting it to. You can look back to 2002 and see Gangs of New York getting tech noms against Chicago, The Pianist, The Two Towers, The Hours, Road to Perdition, Frida, all period films. There's room for Oliver Twist.

Count chickens... hatched...


AMPAS votes on a tight time frame. The good news is, as far as nominations go, box office isn't going to be a huge factor for this film, the bad news is, as far as nominations go, box office isn't going to be a huge factor for this film.

I would say Memoirs, Jarhead, Vengence, Cinderella Man, The New World, and even to every extent other than it's a remake and a movie about a giant monkey: King Kong. I would say these are the "mega" productions, and at least two of them will get a nomination.

Yes, I'm softening on Memoris' potential :???


I don't think you can rule out Cinderella Man. People are bound to remember at least something about it, and the DVD will be strategically placed in such a manner that it could very well pull a Moulin Rouge.


There are things that make each of these stand out. Batman is it's stellar cast. Worlds is Cruise/Spielberg, and Kong has Jackson/Watts and the best release date of the year.


Other than The Pianist, those were all incredibly gigantic films. Predicting another The Pianist-like success story for certain aspects of Oliver Twist just seems like stretching it to me. It's being released earlier (like September I think) so we'll know pretty early the prospects of this one.

I just came from Cinderella Man and I was impressed.

I really loved Zelwegger's character and the focus they gave her.

Russel Crow didn't really churn out the knowckout performance of his career and probably not even his second. I liked his choice of film but it actually didn't add TOO much to his resume. To me, it didn't seem like it was too much of a stretch from his previous work, while most of his films were.

For the record, I hate Russel Crow; he's really one of the only people that I just canNOT stand in real and celebrity life.
However, that doesn't detract from the fact that I think he is one of the greatest actors today. He gave a great performance that could maybe get him another nomination, just maybe. But I didn't see it as anything more special than his previous triumphs.

the movie overall was great. I'm not a fan of boxing but 2 movies in 6 months have seemed to have really strcj a chord with me. The second half or the last quarter I should say was great. I really felt what they were striving for towards the end; I felt great movie-making.

I would give it an A-

As for Oscar.... I think the box office was an extremely important factor and because it failed to ring up big numbers, as I predicted (it should have been a July release) I won't put it on my predictions list unless alot of the year's surefire Oscar hopefuls turn out to be blanks.

I think the most deserving in the movie is Renee Zelwegger for Supporting Actress and maybe Cinematography. Actually Art Direction may be up there too, but I'm sure we'll see better by year's end.