Gravity, like Inception, will have enough popularity with audiences and critics to secure nominations in the big categories. But it's ultimately "too cool for school" to win the BP award.

So, yeah, I think I'm in.

I meant if the Butler takes votes and publicity from it if it surges to 3rd or 4th place (The Butler has no chance at actually winning)

Just saw Gravity so comparing it to 12 Years, I have a hard time seeing it win. 12 Years A Slave leaves a stronger emotional punch, but Gravity will get best actress, potentially director, and sweep the technical. But 12 Years A Slave is just so well done.

but it has barely a chance to get into the Top 5, let alone #3 or #4. I think, the opposite might happen. The hype for 12 Years might lead to The Butler being bumped off the BP nominees list.

I'm thinking Gravity wins at this point. It has enough mainstream Hollywood in it, it's got the connected stars and its BO success is enough to make a difference.

The Wolf of Wall Street will be released in time and crush em all.

The film seems to maintain its frontrunner status. Lots of critics wins, most SAG noms, tied with American Hustle for most GG-noms and it is a much more "important" film than Hustle.

Yeah, but the difference to The Social Network is that before its release, it certainly did not seem like someting that would ever win BP. It's only when the reviews came in and the critics awards hit that it became the (seeming) frontrunner. With 12 Years a Slae it looked like a MAJOR frontrunner way in advance.

That being said, you could name Lincoln as the more apt comparison.