Clooney
Streep
Waltz
Mo'Nique

Certainly looks like it at the moment but I expect at least one of them to lose afterall. Sally Hawkins and Amy Ryan also looked very strong when the awards season started...

I think Streep is the most vulnerable right now, followed by Clooney.

Waltz and Mo'Nique are 90% locks. The other two are in the somewhat likely categories.

Ronan can always be the spoiler.

If Clooney and Streep win, would this be the first time the Best Actor and Best Actress winners starred together in a separate film in the same year (Fantastic Mr. Fox)?

These four won't happen, because Sandra Bullock will be pulling an upset.

Not Clooney.

I can go with Clooney, Waltz and Nique but Streep I can't go for. As much as I like her, I'm sure there are better more in depth colorful roles to be award BA then her portrayal of Julia Child.

I agree with that. Sandra over Streep and the other 3 roll.

Waltz is the only one there that's for sure.

Clooney could get upset by Firth or Bridges, Streep by Bullock or Mulligan, and Mo'Nique by Kendrick.

Kendrick has the problem of split votes with Farmiga.

Double GG nominee Sandra Bullock vs Double GG nominee Meryl Streep. Mulligan around as well. Should be a very interesting race to watch!

Supporting categories are locked. Streep is having a big lead on Actress after a sensational couple of days. Actor is still wide open though. Bridges will give Clooney a good run.

If Clooney loses Best Actor will Up in the Air still win BP? I mean it is likely losing Best Director too so could it win BP with only one single additional win (assuming it'll get Screenplay).

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay

Just kinda doesn't look right to me. The Hurt Locker is actually in a much better position to look like a real BP winner. If it were a bit bigger I could see it going like this:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Sound Editing or Mixing

So maybe Avatar would be in better position to win, the type of tech-heavy popular blockbuster over the arthouse darling battle we've seen in the past (Chicago vs. Pianist, Gladiator vs. Traffic)? It's a pretty fascinating season actually, especially as we could be potentially looking at a Up in the Air/The Hurt Locker/Avatar/Inglourious Basterds four-way battle.

Damn, I dunno...it's still a sci-fi film with blue aliens. And no acting support whatsoever. ROTK at least was winning Best Ensemble left and right.

Box office will be a deciding factor with SO many nominees this year. If Avatar does $300 m +, it would certainly help itself out. Lovely Bones won't be so lucky...

I don't see Waltz as a lock. Woody Harrelson is more established as an actor in Hollywood, and has never won so I kinda think he'll take it.

I think Meryl will win, but Sidibe could spoil. Clooney is possible, but he'll face some strong competition.

Mo'nique is the only lock. So, could all four win? It's possible, but with three of them being on shaky ground, one of them is BOUND to lose out...I'll say no.

But his movie made less than $1 million.

I haven't see The Messenger, but Waltz pulled off an iconic multi-language role. It screams Oscar.

These are Waltz's wins for now:
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Online Film Critics
Indiana Film Critics
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Florida Film Critcs Circle
Dallas/Ft. Worth Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Toronto Film Critics Association
San Diego Film Critics

These are Harrelson's:
National Board of Review

I don't think Harrelson is any threat to Waltz in the overall scheme.

Still doesn't sit with me that Streep could win for JULIE AND JULIA. Just not a Best Actress type of film. At all. Mulligan or Sidibe would sit more right with me

Steep can make any movie a Best Actress type of film. She proved that with The Devil Wears Prada. I can think of no other actress that could get a nomination for Meryl's part. It's obvious the Academy wants to give her another Oscar. And this year is weak, so Meryl might just pull ahead this time as usually every year there's some outstanding performance that grabs eyeballs and leaves Meryl only a nomination. This year Sidibe, Streep and Mulligan all have the same chances IMO. And Meryl is the most popular with the Academy, so she has a slight edge.

Oh and Rod, it's awesome to see you showing up here

I agree on that. But she probably will win it will just feel like such a "just there" win foer me, though. She was way better in Prada.

With more reviews coming in for Crazy Heart, I start having a hard time seeing Bridges not winning. Many are saying the performance itself is his career-best, and the movie itself is doing much better than I expected review-wise.