You heard it here. Sorry for starting this so early, but I don't get here much anymore, so I can't cram it all into one week. I will try to pop in a bit and convince you of the obvious, but I really wish you'd just take my word for it so I don't have to put much effort in.

This film has been marketed better than any film I can remember in recent memory. The TV ads are incredible, the promotions are strong, it's playing in front of every major release, it's a hot Marvel property, it's got mass appeal, it has all the food groups represented (humor, action, FX, romance, drama, etc...), and it's in the right place at the right time for what the market needs released.

Here's 10 minutes of behind the scenes footage. This is excellent stuff, and makes me very confident about it's upcoming box office. Kids will be fueling this movie, but it'll also get the other demographics coming out in droves.


http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/fanta ... he_scenes/

Welcome to the 60+ million club!

1. Maverikk - June 19th
2. Zingaling - June 19th
3. Madgez - June 19th
4. revolutions - June 19th
5. nghtvsn - June 19th
6. scottb - June 19th
7. Nebs - June 19th
8. movies35 - June 19th
9. Legend - June 19th
10.neostorm - June 19th
11.dar - June 19th
13.cujoy - June 19th
14. - June 20th
15.Box - June 20th
16.lilmac - June 20th
17.Positive Jon - June 20th
18.DP07 - June 20th
19.Moviebuf - June 20th
20.bABA - June 20th
21.Amos - June 20th
22.KC - June 20th
23.Dr. Lecter - June 21st
24.Schlomo - June 21st
25.matatonio - June 23rd
26.Joe - June 23rd
27.Emmy's wdw04 - June 24th
28.ChipMunky - June 25th
29.BJ - June 28th

This would make it the second biggest opening this Year so far. I think 60 is a bit high. But I can see a possibility for 50-55.

Actually I took a look a the weekend opening charts at BOM and so far 2005 is pretty weak. (Expect for the SITHmonster of course)

FILMO, 60+ million.

Honest!

I've been saying for a while that the marketing is terrific for Fantastic Four.

So, yeah...I wouldn't be surprised by a $60+ million opening weekend.

Good! I'll list the names in the first post, and try to edit them in as I get a chance.

With much love to Maverikk, I disagree with everything he's said about Fantastic Four.

This film will at most make 135 million (EW is dead on with $110 million). This film doesn't have to be a Blockbuster, and I disagree about it's advertising.

Yes $60m+ - its got a reasonable fanbase and looks to be a crowd pleaser. Marketing has been best of the year.

I guess it depends on how big WOTW will actually be!!

Why do you want to make it difficult for me? :razz:

No worries, by the time July 8th rolls around, you won't be thinking along the same lines anymore. Neither will many others, as the obvious will be clearer to see for everyone.

lol okey Mav i'll join.
$60 mill opening.

Because you'll blow up the Earth?

I don't know why anyone would Doubt that it wouldn't open over 60 million. Better known that DD and just as much hype as Hulk and Xmen.

heh...no, but I think this will be a no-brainer as much as Sith topping 150 million was. I am seriously as confident about this as I was about that, and within the next few weeks, so will many of you be.

uuuuh......tempting, but NO!

Count me in Mav.

It can, and will open to $60m+, but the legs will be awful. So, count me in.

If it's the crowd pleaser it looks to be, it's legs won't be awful.

I think it will play out rather similar to Mr. and Mrs. Smith. I see about a $45-55 million weekend. I'm not convinced that it can crack $60 million at all, thus I cannot join. But I still think it will be a hit regardless. The advertising has been good, and is what will make this film get a possible great $50 million opening weekend.

It doesn't help that the huge WOTW is opening the weekend before. People will still be out seeing that film, and will overshadow Fantastic Four. You have to realize that I think WOTW will get $300+ million total, so that effects my judgement of Fantastic Four's competition.

PEACE, Mike

I don't think, even in retrospec we could say that Sith topping 150 million was a no-brainer, because it didn't do it by much and there could have been a lot that went wrong.

Here are my justifications:

1. The post 4th of July weekend. If we go back a ways, this weekend isn't typically the weekend which drives a lot of uber Blockbusters, and I think we can all agree that Pirates of the Caribbean is the exception rather than the rule and it only made about $46 million for the weekend. To do over $60 million, Fantastic really needs that Fourth of July weekend.

2. Quality. Everything I've read about the script or the quality of the movie seems like it confirms that it's really cliche ridden and that the script is absolutely awful. I don't trust Tim Story to turn a bad script into a great movie, and the trailers have highlighted this. Quality DOES have something to do with numbers, I'm absolutely convinced.

3. The state of movies in general. I'm beginning to feel that we're going to continue this film recession and our only hope for big openings at this point are Worlds and Potter, and EVERYTHING else (yes including Kong) is on shaky ground until the market can correct itself (can it?).

4. If Batman couldn't do it... insert that argument here.

MikeQ is right. It will be considered a "hit" in the same way that Daredevil was considered a hit. It's not embarassing, it's just that this film isn't poised to be a phenom.

I'll try to get back to the rest of your comments tonight, but I have to go see Batman now. As far as the no-brainer, it made, over 150 million, all things were taking into account, and it was a no-brainer, which I had stated over and over before a number ever came out. To me, that qualifies it as a no-brainer. :wink:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean opened on a Wednesday and did almost $50m. Also Scary Movie opened the weekend after the 4th of July and did about $50m adjusted.

2. Quality: Quality as we've seen from Batman Begins doesn't open a movie. Its about marketing and awareness that drives movies to big opening weekends and Fantastic Four has lots of marketing and awareness that BB didn't have. Besides being cliche isn't really a bad thing when it comes to comic book based movies.

3. The state of movies in general: Some people thought the "recession" would hurt ROTS opening.

4. Or if the Hulk can do it so can the Fantastic Four.

I love the trailers and they've been getting great reactions, I have no doubt in my mind it'll open with $60+

I love the word *adjusted*. Scary Movie opened to $42 million. The fact is nothing has opened north of $60 million, the point is confirmed.


You cannot make that inference from Batman Begins. It is quite possible if the quality had been less that Batman would have done less.


Disagree.


I would agree with this.


Which ties in with my initial comment that Revenge of the Sith wasn't a no-brainer for $150 million. It's quite clear that the industry is in a little bit of a panic.


Hulk had Batman Begin's release date and BARELY crossed that $60 million line. And yes, I think it matters.

I think more like $45,000,000.

Is it weekend opening, or midweek like Sith/Batman?

If its weekend, count me in!

Count me in, i say it will make 78 Million