$3.15m for Wed/Thursday previews


Deadline is saying 35-40m which seems decent to me? Ya it probably won't be profitable but for a Gosling/Blunt pairing seems fine.

Tarot - 715k

Civil War only made 2.9 in previews so I'm surprised they would estimate that high

WOM seems very good, if it somehow got to $40m, it is like at mid to high 100s.

A debut in the 30s will be good enough for well over 100m.

Deadline now saying $10.4m Friday, $28m opening. Knew it.

This could miss $80M. Could be a rough month until May long weekend.

Joker 2 on this weekend would have made an utter fortune.

I think actual will be lower.

Winner of the weekend is The Phantom Menace. It pulled a $2.7M Friday and could get to $9M over the weekend. This is probably the first time since Rogue One (2016) when a SW movie has gone on the upside of expectations.

20 Beauty and the Beast $504,481,165 2017
21 Finding Dory $486,295,561 2016
22 Frozen II $477,373,578 2019
23 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $474,544,677 1999

Menace will jump from #23 to #21 on the alltime list. Won't likely have legs but another $16M in future releases will get to $500M+.

Fall Guy is a combination of genres that aren't really as popular anymore (action, comedy, romance), still its gross would be ok if it had a smaller budget like the Lost City

28m is ok for a counter programming comedy. Not for a summer kickoff film though.

Fall guy should’ve opened next week and swapped with Apes. Mother’s Day is historically good for counterprogramming (Great Gatsby, Neighbors, Dark Shadows, Bridesmaids).

Got $44.4M in AU cash grants and in addition a 16.5% tax rebate.

That means if the public reported after rebates budget is $130M this movie cost probably close to $180M-190M without marketing spend. It had an ad during the Superbowl ($7M) so let's assume the marketing budget on this was at least $40M.

Bringing total spend here closer to $220-230M as likely a conservative estimate pre rebates.

The studio can thank Australia for saving them on this one!

The mid-budget film needs to make a comeback. Or at least low budget but good comedies.

I do wonder what online virality and influence really means in the film industry.

Gosling went viral multiple times with the Barbie Oscars performance and his SNL appearance.

Zendaya has $185M followers on IG. Though Challenges is probably making significantly more than it would have without her in a smaller film.

Barbenheimer seemed to build virality organically and driven by audiences.

Just shows how much starpower in the film industry has changed. Cruise going from TGM to an underperforming worst attended MI movie as well.

Almost all well reviewed films of April more or less flopping or disappointing. People had quality films and didn't show up.

The last 5 weeks have so many mixed signals. But seems movie concept, director, nostalgia seem much more powerful than starpower in most cases.

Directors are absolutely the primary draws at the moment.

Empire has Fall Guy at $10.5M Sat.

Wed $800K
Thur $2.35M
Fri $7.33M
Sat $10.5M +43.2%

$21M 2day total

Looks like it could maybe pull off $30M but Sat jump is encouraging.

It would need a 15% drop lol.

1 Fall Guy $28.5M
2 SW Ep1 $8.1M / $482.6M
3 Challengers $7.6M -49% / $29,462,046
4 Tarot $6.5M
5 GvsK $4.5M -38% / $188M
6 CW $3.55M -48% / $62M
7 Unsung Hero $3M -61% / $13.1M
8 KFP4 $2.4M -33% / $188.3M
9 Abigail $2.3M -56% / $22.7M
10 Ghostbusters $1.8M -45% / $109.9M

Episode 1 getting #2 opening. $4.6M Sat from May 4th just shows how much $$$ is left on the table. They have really botched the franchise overall.

Solid hold for Challengers. GvsK and KFP4 inching toward $200M.

Also, how is this for a twist? What was SW Ep. 1's opening day? $28,542,349! While Fall Guy opened to $28.5M.

Also interesting, One Love and Fall Guy had the same OW's!

Honestly don't see Fall Guy opening over 35m even prepandemic so opening seems fine to me. Weird how people on twitter are trying to say this an example of theaters dying. This should have had a smaller budget.

Sunday drop for Phantom Menace seems too high.

Once upon a time was already about stunt man and had much more caliber. I’ve been saying this for years, fall guy was like ATeam but cannonball run remake is like fast and furious with the quality of rat race, or it should have been a cliff boone sequel. The movie is awesome, but gosling isn’t a draw

Charlie is saying $6.75M SUN. That would be a $1M drop in estimates for $27.5M weekend. Not great.

+63% on Tuesday

Solid for The Fall Guy but still looks like it will just miss $100M.

Challengers is holding solidly. Looks like it could do $50M. Solid #2 for April.

SW1 already at $9.8M in 5 days of this re-release. Vastly surpassing expectations.

GvsK looking good for $200M+. KFP will be just under $190M going into the weekend. With Garfield on deck in 16 days, it's going to be down to the wire on if it can make it to $200M but going to be awfully close.