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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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December 8-10 predictions
The Boy and the Heron - ... I think if the release was over 2,000 theaters this could've done what I thought initially. Seems like over $10m may be enough for #1? We'll see.
Die Hard will be in Dolby theaters, looking forward to that!
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Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:20 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38011
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Too bad Heron doesn’t have more theatres though should still do decent. Hunger Games keeps rolling.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:24 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Heron I think should do around10m. Suzume did 5m and that was way lower profile. I’ve seen a lot of marketing for this one.
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Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:38 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
The early showings were huge and high in demand in my area. I think it will do decently! Probably will be a HG win if it has a slim hold.
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Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:21 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Heron's release seem to be smaller than -1. So not sure it can hit 10m this weekend. However there is robust demand for early imax shows today.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:45 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Sadly looks like Saltburn's box office is going to get cut short. It will be on Prime before Christmas.
Still a great run and should have nice holds over the next 2 weeks.
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Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:23 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
O wrote: Sadly looks like Saltburn's box office is going to get cut short. It will be on Prime before Christmas.
Still a great run and should have nice holds over the next 2 weeks. To be fair, with everything coming out, it would be taken out of most theaters by then anyway. I'm hoping it hits double digits.
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Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:15 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Looking at Heron's BO till saturday, its definitely opening > 10m. Friday PS is considerably higher than Thursday and Saturday is even higher than that. Thinking low teens now after expansion seen in showtimes today.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Wed Dec 06, 2023 2:02 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Tues #'s
1. HUNGER GAMES ($1.8M) -32.9% 2. GODZILLA MINUS ONE ($1.7M) 3. NAPOLEON ($1M) -50.0%
Wowsa at HG. It's drops keep getting better. Can it somehow pull a $10M+ 4th weekend (29.45% drop or better)? Could be at a $136M total after 4 weekends off of a $44.61M OW (3.05X multiplier). That's with the holidays still coming up.
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Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:45 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Even if it's grossing to the opening of the first 2... nice to see legs are very good for THG.
Rooting for Boy and the Heron to be #1!
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Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:59 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
HG sort of feels like what Fantastic Beasts should have done.
The originals just opened so massively. Surprisingly out of 4 movies, none of them reached a 2.8+ multiplier.
HG needs to get to $178.5M ish to pull off a 4X multiplier which isn't impossible. Even if it started so much smaller it's legs being so much better is definitely a great sign for LG in terms of the IP's value.
Hypothetically if Lawrence came back I feel like $200M could be the floor if the quality was there.
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Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:13 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Too bad Godzilla didn't get a proper run in premium screens, the past couple of days the 7pm Imax show is pretty full
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Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:43 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Feels like Godzilla could give Heron a run for its money in a duel of Japanese movies!
Godzilla Minus One now at $14.36M is the highest grossing live-action Japanese film in North America. Toho said is adding screens to reach 2,540 locations.
Godzilla Minus One will top The Adventures of Milo & Otis (a comedy adventure with orange tabby cat Milo and pug Otis) from 1989/1990 re-release.
Pretty impressive after 5 days. Looks like this could play very well over the holidays with superb WOM.
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 1:48 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
What do Milo and Otis have anything to do with this? Loved that movie when I was young.
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:10 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Godzilla broke it's record as highest grossing LIVE ACTION Japanese movie ever. Not that it matters much but we be breaking very important records in this post Marvels/Wish world where we ain't got much more to be excited about box office wise! Let's celebrate the massive blockbuster success of Godzilla as it breaks 30 year old records with its $15M tally!!!
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:23 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Godzilla takes #1 again from THG on Wed. That's a 40.42% drop for HG vs last Wed so much steeper than its other dailies.
Wed
1. GODZILLA -1 $1.36M 2. HUNGER GAMES $1.1M 3. Napoleon $700K 4. The Shift $468K 5. Thanksgiving $220K
Godzilla's Wed # is bigger than its Mon # and a strong hold from Tuesday. It's going to have an exceptional weekend and seems like it could be a darkhorse blockbuster if it really builds buzz and wom gets out pre Christmas.
Could be at $25M after its second weekend. Can it do $50M+?
Just so interesting to see THG and Godzilla as the market's response to Marvels/Wish flopping. People want to watch movies they just didn't want to watch what the big studios were serving.
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:29 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
This is so good for Godzilla Minus 1. Looks like it can be a player through December.
The question: will this success help or hinder Godzilla X Kong?
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:26 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
MadGez wrote: This is so good for Godzilla Minus 1. Looks like it can be a player through December.
The question: will this success help or hinder Godzilla X Kong? I think hollywood's version of zilla would be other extreme. But for OW I think it will be net positive. I think Zilla will barely drop or even increase a bit this weekend. Its losing PLF but adding shows overall to make up for it. Plus the weekend trend would be way stronger than last week. Heron is also looking really good. May be as high as low to mid teens OW. We are going to see Japanese movie take up Top 2 slots this weekend.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:55 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Woo! Japan centric weekend. Weekends in the teens this time but I'd say within 5 years we'll probably see $30M+ weekends. Japanese culture is very much in the mainstream with the 1300% increase in travel with Japan between 2019 to 2023! Maybe we'll see a $100M+ performer sometime too.
Let's see a full Pokemon movie live action or Illumination movie. That's going to print $$$!!!
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Fri Dec 08, 2023 1:38 am |
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pookpooi
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 am Posts: 516
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Re: December 8-10 predictions
Could this be the first time ever in North America box-office history that top two spots belong to Japanese movies? (At least for a day)
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Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:04 pm |
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