Didn't see a thread for this yet...

Trailer is pretty good and looks like a good choice for the holiday season. I'm thinking this wins Christmas.

I think this can do about 175m or so.

Dec. 2023 landscape:

December 15, 2023
Wonka - Looks good and like it appeals to every demographic.
Anyone But You (Comedy romance) - Sounds like a small film maybe $30M

December 20, 2023
Ghostbusters movie - Novelty was there with the last one. Maybe $100M.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - Has nothing going in its favor other than its release date. $150M.
Migration (animation) - Can't underestimate Illumination so probably $150M.
The Color Purple (Drama musical) - Maybe $80M
The Boys in the Boat (sports drama war) - Awards dependent but sounds like $25M?

Wonka seems like the winner in this bunch but I can't discount Migration either. Aquaman made $1.1B last time and that was 5 years ago but feels like much longer. If it does overperform its all on Mamoa and the holidays. Could this one fail to top $300M globally? Feel like we're set for an Alice 2 type dropoff!

I didn't even realize another Ghostbusters was done. Don't sense it'll do big #s.

Having Wonka and Aquaman close to each other seems silly. I do wonder when we get a trailer for Aquaman... guess it'll be for Blue Beetle.

Trailer looks goooood!

Trailer has a Christmasy vibe that I wasn't expecting, despite the release date. This should clear $200M easy.

Feels very much like Polar Express/Greatest Showman/Narnia.

These tentpole books opening at Christmas time just seem to clean up. Think they've hit a goldmine here and it doesn't have the weird factor of Depp's Wonka which probably made most of what it did as a follow up for Depp's POTC Jack Sparrow so weird Depp was super in demand.

Having the Paddington team behind this too makes me feel confident about the quality too. Those movies are wonderful and some of the best kids movies to have come out in the last 10 years.

Chalamet’s performance seems strange.

I mean, Willy Wonka is a strange character, but you're right that his performance isn't the right type of strange. He'd be a good Artful Dodger, but Wonka he isn't. He's too young for one. I'm not sold on it being another Mary Poppins Returns yet. It does have that magical Christmas movie feel about it, but it could easily become another Nanny McPhee or Paddington, neither of which even did $80m. I'll sleep on it.

I do hope this is a hit (for selfish Derby reasons). It does look better than expected. Thinking $180-$200m.

It looks like a generic British low fantasy kids flick. Not bad not great but I’ll watch it. Love Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

If they actually tried to make it explain the original character (who imo doesn't seem to like people that much, and definitely doesn't like those bratty non-Charlie kids who he goes candy Se7en on), they could have made this Wonka like, a guarded/shy young artist, better at candy than people. Maybe show Wonka get jaded when the chocolate company he works for originally takes his work away from him and waters it down to a mediocre mass selling product. Or show him get burned romantically (either sex works?) by someone and then close himself off emotionally. Maybe this doesn't sound like a kids movie, but the boundaries for kids movies have been warped over time. It seems Hollywood has forgotten that introverted/reclusive people sometimes smash big as leads of kids movies like Elsa or Belle, Shrek was a loner, etc. But a movie like this, the original Wonka character doesn't really matter, the only thing that matters about him is that he's a fictional character IP that people recognize, otherwise he appears to mostly just share the same name.

Yeah big hit, this and Aqua could combine for $500m domestic

It's kind of funny how Hollywood is convinced he's the new DiCaprio or Depp. I don't buy it yet. This fall shall prove if he indeed has drawing power or not.

I don't buy it yet either, but he is probably the next best in line to become another Depp or DiCaprio. He's certainly talented, and he's already positioned himself to do movies for the winter/awards season - he doesn't do summer movies - and that adds prestige to his profile. Could he ever carry a film? Not right now, and I don't believe he ever will just because the nature of films and leading men has changed.

With Wonka it does feel like he's bitten off more than he can chew. Wilder and Depp are tough boots to fill, and Chalamet's Wonka feels more like an understudy than his own weird and wonderful creation.

He has a better chance than Holland but I can't say his post CMBYM performances have blown me away.

Yeah same. He's been good in everything but his work in CMBYN is on another level. I don't think he's really gotten another meaty role like that though. Outside of Beautiful Boy.

Barbie has me thinking this is going to over perform. Big scale holiday musical = $$$

Looks awful outside of grant. I didn’t think it’s possible to be an even worse Wonka than Depp. Reminds me of that shitty Peter Pan movie with white tiger lily, good guy Hook and Hugh Jackman dressed in S&M

So reviews are out. 85% with 46 reviews and good average rating(7.9/10). I think this is breaking out.

Reviews look great but Variety's left me confused.

It’s so square it makes “Mary Poppins Returns” look edgy.

Other reviews say Wonka has lost any edge he has in an overly idealistic version of the character that a corporation would approve of.

They mentioned it was a musical like the 1960s vein. Paddington has this older style of storytelling so not surprising but is this another way to say it's "boring?" Overall it feels super safe so sounds like WB will deliver a big hit here. Though it may not feel like a magical experience, it sounds like being "good enough" might be enough to break out majorly.

67 on metacritic, basically what I expected as positive but not really spectacular.

Thinking 175m

I think the great reviews guarantee this won't bomb at the very least.

Top critics have rated in 8/10. That is really good. it may not get universal praise and get A+ cinemascore. But as long it satisfies 80% of audience its going to have a strong box office run. Even Inception got B+ cinemscore and had a great run at BO.