Predict these films opening weekends by first Thursday/Friday numbers

The Boogeyman
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
The Blackening
Elemental
The Flash
No Hard Feelings
Asteroid City (wide)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Previous winners:

Previous winners:

2021

September: Magic Mike
October: zwackerm
November: Keyser Soze
December: publicenemy#1

2022

January/February: zwackerm
March/April: Jonathan
May: rftapeout
June/July: Algren
August/September: Magic Mike
October: Rev
November/December: Magic Mike

2023

January/February: Magic Mike
March: Keyser Soze
April/May: stuffp

The Boogeyman - 11.5
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - 128
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 42
The Blackening - 10.5
Elemental - 34
The Flash - 116
No Hard Feelings - 15
Asteroid City - 9 (wide release)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - 69
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - 15.5

The Boogeyman - 14m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - 145m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 47m
The Blackening - 15m
Elemental - 40m
The Flash - 90m
No Hard Feelings - 13m
Asteroid City - 8m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - 90m
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - 16m

The Boogeyman-14
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse- 165
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts- 39
The Blackening- 8
Elemental- 30
The Flash- 115
No Hard Feelings- 19
Asteroid City (wide) 6
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny- 85
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken- 12

The Boogeyman - $16 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $133 million
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $49 million
The Blackening - $11 million
Elemental - $30 million
The Flash - $85 million
No Hard Feelings - $23 million
Asteroid City (wide) - $5.2 million
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $79 million
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $18 million

The Boogeyman 16.5m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 116m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts 43m
The Blackening 10m
Elemental 37.5m
The Flash 94m
No Hard Feelings 19.5m
Asteroid City (wide) 10m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 72m
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken 18.5m

I'm back to defend my June crown.

The Boogeyman $22 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $108m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $47m
The Blackening $5.5m
Elemental $45m
The Flash $120m
No Hard Feelings $12m
Asteroid City (wide) $3.5m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $88m
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $9m

I totally forgot about The Blackening. That seemed like such a winner when it was announced with the tagline "We can't all die first" but now it feels like it will be lost amongst the rubble of all these giant openings.

Is Indy opening on Wednesday? All the predictions here seem very low...

The Boogeyman - $18m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $140M
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $40M
The Blackening - $9M
Elemental - $30M
The Flash - $125M
No Hard Feelings - $16M
Asteroid City (wide) - $7M
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $101M
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $12M

No, but the review being bad killed it’s buzz. I doubt anyone who isn’t a fan will care.

Indy presales have been horrible. It start around 8 days ago and is now crawling after really slow start. its not that far off FX/Transformers level at this point.

Iirc, Crystal Skull had a relatively small Thursday gross and we all thought it was in big trouble. Then it recovered very quickly and still hit $100M+ for weekend ($120Mish 4-day since this was back in 2008 when you couldn't combine Thursday and Friday like they do now.) So I think the same thing is gonna happen again. Weak presales, weak previews, but still a very strong weekend when the core audience shows up on friday and saturday night.

we sometimes do get early preview estimates on thursday evening. Otherwise it happens on Friday morning. I think you should set more formal deadline. I am still chewing on many movies and like to go as late as possible.

Just get it in by midday Thursday and you'll be fine.

The Boogeyman $8M
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $180M
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $23M
The Blackening $6M
Elemental $21M
The Flash $95M
No Hard Feelings $8M
Asteroid City (wide) $3M
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $59M
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $10M

The Boogeyman - $17.9 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $141.4 million
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $41.5 million
The Blackening - $12.5 million
Elemental - $33.3 million
The Flash - $116.3 million
No Hard Feelings - $13.8 million
Asteroid City (wide) - $6.6 million
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $87.9 million
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $20.3 million

The Boogeyman - 14 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - 181 million
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 30 million
The Blackening - 9 million
Elemental - 24 million
The Flash - 80 million
No Hard Feelings - 5 million
Asteroid City (wide) - 4 million
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - 75 million
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - 13 million

I want to do $182M just for the sake of it now.

One dollar, Bob!!

Ok I went a bit more than that with my final edits. I thought I keep losing these things and its only 1 month so why not try a new strategy. If I'm going to be last I want to be an all time record last.

The Boogeyman - $18m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $127M
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $41M
The Blackening - $12M
Elemental - $37M
The Flash - $88M
No Hard Feelings - $16M
Asteroid City (wide) - $7M
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $85M
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken - $11M

Spiderverse is going to pull a Mario in terms of walkups but some of the predictions look wacky to me. It does not have as wide a release as MCU or Mario. I am expecting huge spillovers over the weekend. I would say single digit drop on Sunday like TDK will happen.

I was going to predict 1 million over any Spiderverse prediction, but I don't think I can match that. 1...2...3... sold! to O.

The Boogeyman 11m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 125m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts 48m
The Blackening 9m
Elemental 28m
The Flash 111m
No Hard Feelings 13m
Asteroid City (wide) 8m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 62m
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken 14m