The Marvels is gonna tank and Dune will do way better this time without an HBO max release

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Nah.

Even with a decrease from Captain Marvel don't see Dune opening to the 80m+ Marvels will probably.

What's the consensus on Dune 2? It made $100m in a depressed market. This should uptick somewhat - perhaps $200m?

Marvels will certainly be low end Marvel but lower than $200m? Possible, I guess.

It will be closer than we think.

I don't buy that the market was that depressed last October/November. People came out for Spider-Man.

I do think Dune is always going to be somewhat niche and Mad Max Fury Road numbers are realistic for the sequel, not a massive breakout doubling the original's gross. Hopefully it will be enough to convince WB to adapt Dune Messiah as the third film in the trilogy.

It was available to watch for no extra cost on Hbo max, a service millions of Americans had at the time.

In

I could see it, though I don't love Dune's release date. WB should move it to December and do some reshoots on Aquaman (rumors say that it needs them badly.)

For now I think it'll go something like:

Dune 2 - $75M / $200M
The Marvels - $90M / $210M
Hunger Games - $60M / $160M (these movies always had decent legs)

OUT

DUNE 2 will make bank but not enough to pass The Marvels domestic
The Marvels will make all the YT haters cry fanboy tears once again

We were still seeing $90M weekends not too far from Dune's release from Venom so feel like at best maybe it would have done $60M if fully theatrical OW.

I'm not sure if I'm seeing a $200M+ jump for the sequel so this is a no for me. Ms. Marvel at least was a fairly well received TV show which should help but gap is too wide. If Dune drastically expanded its audience I would have expected better legs for the first film as well so still feels a bit too niche for mega blockbuster status even if I could see a 50% drop for Marvel here.

Dune was not depressed because of Covid, it was depressed because of Hbo max. The so called 70-90m ow of venom, Shang chi and eternals is because those films were exclusively theatrical.

This isn't happening. Even though I feel The Marvels will flop relative to other MCU movies, there's just no excitement for Dune Part 2. Even a boilerplate Marvel outing will outdo sci-fi desert boredom.

IN

I happily see this happening

Better chance of Marvels OW over Dune 2 total

Honestly. I hate to admit it but Dune 1 wasn't exactly a huge hit. And its legs were poor, I don't think the film was that satisfying since it was only half of the story.

I could even see it opening under the first one TBH.

It’s legs were poor because only the die hards saw it in theaters. This time theaters will be the only option. It was front loaded for the same reason as Black widow.

Even with a 60% second weekend drop it managed a 2.6x multiple. I think the first film has become an even bigger deal on Hbo max since release. Was nominated for best picture. Seems like a prime candidate for a breakout sequel.

For a day and date release Dune did extremely well. I think part 2 will have a ton of hype. 55-65m opening is possible.

I'm definitely in on that. Marvel has been flipping hard on 2nd weekend drops, but their OW have still been impressive.

Isn’t part 2 considerably worse story wise as well

I think it’s the opposite

Despite a stacked cast, Zendaya really has the most star power of any of them and she's in a lot more of part 2 so that's a big plus for its potential box office. She's got 170M followers and her fans still showed up for #1 though she's in it for only 7 minutes. She was also front and center in marketing for a reason. The Zendaya halo alone will probably help this a great deal.

Indeed. She'll bring in a solid fanbase.

I think $200m isnt too much a of a stretch for this.

Yes Marvels can potentially go higher but it is likely to be another example of Marvel fatigue.

If Dune somehow does $250m+ maybe this happens... lol

In. The Marvels flops.

Trailer tomorrow. We’ll see

Every post I see about the announcement of the first trailer is accompanied by jokes and criticism, people really despise this project, the mcu is dying