Will a non-sequel ever be the OW record holder again?

HP1 was the last #1 OW holder that wasn't a sequel in Nov. 2001. ID4 would have certainly gotten past Batman Forever but had a $50,228,264 3day weekend in Jul. 1996 and $96,102,252 5 day. A non-comic, Spielberg/Lucas or HP movie has only reached the OW record 3X (2X in the 1980s). Also makes me think, a HP reboot or 3 new sequels in 10 years would make serious $$$.

Opening weekend record holders since 1983:

Apr 2019 - Present: Avengers End Game - $357,115,007
Apr 2018 - Apr 2019: Avengers Infinity War - $257,698,183
Dec 2015 - Apr 2018: Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens - $247,966,675
Jun 2015 - Dec 2015: Jurassic World - $208,806,270
May 2012 - Jun 2015: The Avengers - $207,438,708
Jul 2011 - May 2012: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 $169,189,427
Jul 2008 - Jul 2011: The Dark Knight - $158,411,483
May 2007 - Jul 2008: Spider-Man 3 - $151,116,516
Jul 2006 - May 2007: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $135,634,554
May 2002 - Jul 2006: Spider-man $114,844,116
Nov 2001 - May 2002: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - $90,294,621
May 1997 - Nov 2001: The Lost World: Jurassic Park - $72,132,785
Jun 1995 - May 1997: Batman Forever - $52,784,433
Jun 1993 - Jun 1995: Jurassic Park - $47,026,828
Jun 1992 - Jun 1993: Batman Returns $45,687,711
Jun 1989 - Jun 1992: Batman - $40,489,746
Jun 1989 - Jun 1989: Ghostbusters II - $29,472,894
May 1989 - Jun 1989: Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - $29,355,021
May 1987 - May 1989: Beverly Hills Cop II - $26,348,555
May 1984 - May 1987: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom - $25,337,110
May 1983 - May 1984: Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi - $23,019,618


Tally:
Comics: MCU: 3X, Batman: 4X, Spidy: 2X
Spielberg/Lucas franchises: JP: 3X, Indiana: 2X, SW: 2X
HP: 2X
Other: Pirates: 1X, Ghostbusters: 1X, Beverly Hills Cop: 1X

I think an original film can open to about 200 million now (eg Black Panther). So if inflation increases to the point where Endgame's record is like just another 200 mil grosser, it's possible. The problem is that Endgame was years ahead of time making it seem much more intimidating for the time being.

Never say never. But it’s getting harder and harder I think to unite a large enough segment of the population behind a single source material. The smart phone has fractured youth into smaller tribes and spread interest in any one story too thin. It would take a radical change in society perhaps. But the nature of black swans is that it’s extremely difficult or impossible to predict what will go viral, and helping things go viral is what smart phones do best.

Speaking from experience, I’m kind of over social media and even much of the internet, ready to return to just reading books. If society goes back that way, a book could unite everyone again the way Potter did. But I think we’re in for a long wait.

Not really. It just doesnt really seem possible to me for a non-sequel movie to gather enough hype to challenge these records on OW. Maybe a reboot of some sort could, but a new franchise? I really struggle to see it happen.

Yeah that's not happening till most of us are alive.

Speak for yourself

I also thought that a zeitgeist movie re-pairing Leo and Kate or some other iconic duos could do it. If James Cameron ever found another movie to work with the both of them on (or any other non-Avatar movies to work on).

Historical event movies, bestselling books, movie based on a popular TV show, last films before iconic stars/directors of the 80s/90s retire, movie with a major technological advancement everyone needs to see in theaters, etc.

I think it has to be pre existing IP at this point. The total gross can be beat by a Titanic/Avatar but not the opening weekend.

Probably not. Even more interesting is something that not associated with existing IP.

The last time a non-ip related film opened in the top 5 was PEARL HARBOR - and even that is kinda arguable. The last truly original top 5 mega opener was ID4.

Only closest example would be Passion of the Christ or American Sniper, which is something we’ll never be able to predict. But box office OW record is designed for sequels. I mean summer blockbusters is why these forums even exist ever since Jaws 2 was announced.

They can win the year again of course. But given the current landscape. Who knows? I think if a non sequel can hit 200+ it’ll go down in the conversation as more impressive then Endgame anyway

... I'm gonna say no. At least an not an original IP.

Also IP is completely ridiculous. There’s never been one for OW record. Sequel alone will take 5-7 years and that’s only if things ever come back.

Only if we count something like Dark Avengers or Illuminati or Ultimates or whatever — some MCU mega teamup which is technically the first entry in its subfranchise.

The next film to take the record will have to be an MCU film packing in all current teams with X Men and F4.

Cant see anything else that could do it.

Star Wars will need years of rebuilding to get close to No.1 again

You can't count any of those.

Kingdom Hearts is the only thing, but its also just as likely to flop. They'd have to scrap the main story arc from the game and start fresh.

I honestly don't think anything will ever cross Endgame. That maximized how much money a film can make in America in its opening weekend. It was the culmination of 11 years of world-building in the MCU and decades of hype and excitement around comic book characters in general resulting in a monocultural event that had everyone rushing to theatres. A true cultural phenomenon. I think going forward media is too fractured for anything to take hold like that again. Ergo the absurd difference between this new Spider-Man opening (which I really do think is audiences craving to see those characters together again) and anything else during the pandemic.

MAYBE another Avengers style film if they throw in Fantastic Four, a new Wolverine, etc. But only that. There's no other franchise that could do it. And America is so culturally fractured and there is no more mass media in the sense that there is no more show "everyone watches", book "everyone reads" etc. The Grammys and Oscars got less than 10 million viewers last year. The only thing that is still widely seen is the Superbowl but that's it. It's a radical change from decades prior. Music consumption is the same. The top song on Spotify only gets 1M plays per day in a country of 320M people. Everything is a bunch of niches. Another Harry Potter, Batman, etc can't happen like that.

America is fractured yet we have mass crowds gathering during a pandemic to deliver second biggest opening weekend of all time.

I think if RDJ does one more Avengers (time travel or multi-verse plot "goodbye movie") it could be pretty big opening. Maybe align it with some of the last movie of other OGs like Thor.

He means only Marvel and the Superbowl can unite crowds these days which is sort of true.

But he also meant the can't be another event while it's still happening in most difficult of times. There is no way we can foresee what's going to break but that doesn't mean it cannot happen at all.