Disney+ fucked them up all around

It is strange irony. Disney was so dominant in 2019 then the pandemic, Chapek, Disney+ and you're seeing a studio with multiple misses and almost misses of major products. GOTG's OW was definitely underwhelming and if it wasn't a quality movie most definitely could have gone the route of Ant Man.

Moviegoer interests have certainly changed in the last 4 years but 95% of their issues seem inflicted by the studio itself.

Bought SW, Pixar Marvel and each of those really is on some shaky ground as delivering instant hits. Feel like there will be lots of business case studies from that period on all the wrong things to do.

bad decision making by Chapek & his execs fucked them!

Not to defend Chapek but SW and Pixar were definitely on loose ground before he became CEO. They just accelerated their demise under him. Let's not forget the SW sequels and Solo still happened under Iger as did The Good Dinosaur.

SW sequels made BILLIONS (TFA, Rogue One, TLJ and TROS). Only problems they were having was with audience reactions.

The Good Dinosaur came at a time (2015) when Pixar & Disney Animation were making money hands over fists with their other animation films.

Solo was total fuck up by KK and Bob Iger. KK because of production problems with Lord & Miller. Having to fire them and hire Ron Howard...increasing the budget another 100 million. And Bob Iger because he made dumb decision to not move the movie from a May release to december (as KK insisted because they needed more separation from TLJ and also to market it better).



DON'T YOU EVER!

Inside Out 2 should do $200m+domestic... Elio if it's good would be nice if it opens to $40m+ but idk.

So it seems that Elemental is going to have a nice summer. It's posting some strong numbers, though from a slow start, but still.

At least Zaslav is making Chapek look like a genius in comparison. Being added to the massive list of blunder decisions under Zaslav, WBD has announced they're selling off half WB's film and TV music assets. This would include music rights to several Batman films and songs from films like Purple Rain and Casablanca too.

Not to mention Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Paul Anderson are seeking a meeting with Zaslav in an effort to save TCM (Turner Classic Movies) after he axed their employees.

Chapek has greatly damaged some of Disney's properties, but Zaslav seems intent on actually burning things down at Warner Bros.

I remember when Paramount was in the doldrums for that long while it looked so bad for them but this level of bad at WB and Dis seems magnitudes worse. Are studio honchos just getting more incompetent over the years?

Corpos are hiring these dudes who are good for short term stock gains, but don't really give a crap about how anything will affect the brand in five years because they'll probably have a different job by then.

CEO positions in these companies have become get quick rich schemes for the already wealthy and connected. Zaslav has made half a billion dollars so far in his tenure at WB despite disastrous results.

Saw this article and it gives a lot more insider details on exactly what's going on inside Pixar. Definitely has been the most detailed account I've seen to confirm aspects we already expected.

Apparently Pete Doctor really isn't good at quality control with a kinder and gentler approach to John Lasseter is a key issue. What's nice about the article is that Disney leadership has told Pixar they are committed to theatrical and promised to keep Elemental in theaters until Labor Day so at least it's got a chance for WOM to give it a long run.

https://www.insider.com/pixar-elemental ... ces-2023-6

Looks like Elemental is having killer legs in the US and overseas. Hopefully can get to $400m+ WW.

Well what do you know... leave a film in theaters and people will show up... and no D+ release announced yet... it's almost like films can do well in theaters and then kill it on D+ months after! Shocking! (God)

Elemental is doing the groundwork to rebuild Pixar’s brand. The Internet Media Elites still are proclaiming it a flop in the same vein as The Flash from a quick glance through YouTube, but this has been having phenomenal staying power.

For context, Elemental's PTA for Friday/Saturday week over week would have been a single digits drop. It only dropped 17% because of theater loss and an inflated last Sunday where it went up 2.7% due to the July long weekend.

Barbie will have some type of impact as well as Haunted Mansion but we could start seeing drops of under 10% sometime in its run if it holds onto theaters long enough. It's still pulling a $10M 4th weekend and didn't even have an OW of $30M.

It's already at a 3.70 multiplier after just 24 days of release (4 weekends).

For comparison, Ratatouille had a 4.39X so it's almost already past it. Finding Nemo had a 4.84X.

Toy Story had a 6.58X 3day multiplier but that was Pixar's groundbreaking first film and also benefitted from the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. It had a 5 day of $39,071,176 so technically I'd even argue we go with the 5day multiplier to compare with Elemental which was a 4.91X on its way to $191.8M total.

There's debate on which multiplier could be used but I'd probably be comfortable to argue that if Elemental passes $150M+ it will be Pixar's leggiest film ever with an asterisk * if using a 5day OW for TS1.

currently at 3.7IM and going it's a good movie and deserves it.

It just sucks Pixar budgets are SO DAMN HIGH!!!

Elemental's Tuesday number was it's most impressive yet IMO. 25% drop from July 4th last week and PTA drop of just 20%. It might have enough in it for $160M+ at this rate, let alone $150M. Now has a 3.83X multiplier from it's $29.6M OW. A 5.5X would be $162.8M. Beating A Bug's Life would be a nice spot to finish up at.

Pixar Originals

Inside Out $356,461,711
Finding Nemo $339,714,978
Up $293,004,164
The Incredibles $261,441,092
Monsters, Inc. $255,873,250
Cars $244,082,982
Brave $237,283,207
WALL·E $223,808,164
Coco $210,460,015
Ratatouille $206,445,654
Toy Story $191,796,233
Elemental $113,303,721 (estimated total $165M)
A Bug's Life $162,798,565
The Good Dinosaur $123,087,120
Onward $61,555,145

Also in unrelated news, Iger's contract has been extended 2 years to 2026. Guess they know how much of a mess the studio is which isn't a 2 year fix.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/disney- ... anned.html

It's staying as the twelfth highest-grossing Pixar original. Out of fifteen. I know context is everything; Pixar aren't the Pixar of old anymore, the success years have long gone, and its daily/weekly drops are excellent ... but it's still going to finish twelfth, and far from being eleventh. Not exactly one for the record books. It's taken advantage of a vacant marketplace well, though.

Looks like Elemental has a small chance of getting to $500m if it continues to hold well overseas. Wow.

I think Elemental has restored enough faith in the brand for Elio to go back to their normal openings. Especially if it gets the prime summer date after Inside Out 2 moves.

Seeing that list of Pixar film reminds me of how epic their run was in the 2000s. Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, Toy Story 3 in a row... all some of the best animated films ever.

Inside Out 2 is moving?

With Monday's $1.2M, Elemental moves past TS2 to have the 6th best legs for any Pixar movie ever (out of 24 theatrical releases). It's all but certain to end up #2 on this list behind TS1 as long as it finishes with $145M+.

Toy Story $191,796,233 $29,140,617 6.581749213
A Bug's Life $162,798,565 $33,258,052 4.895012041
Finding Nemo $339,714,978 $70,251,710 4.83568269
Ratatouille $206,445,654 $47,027,395 4.389901971
Up $293,004,164 $68,108,790 4.302002194
Elemental $126,940,646 $29,602,429 4.288183446
Toy Story 2 $245,852,179 $57,388,839 4.283971993
Coco $210,460,015 $50,802,605 4.142701245
Monsters, Inc. $255,873,250 $62,577,067 4.088930055
Cars $244,082,982 $60,119,509 4.059962998
Inside Out $356,461,711 $90,440,272 3.941404676
Toy Story 3 $415,004,880 $110,307,189 3.762265032
The Incredibles $261,441,092 $70,467,623 3.710088135
Finding Dory $486,295,561 $135,060,273 3.600581801
Toy Story 4 $434,038,008 $120,908,065 3.589818496
Brave $237,283,207 $66,323,594 3.577659061
WALL·E $223,808,164 $63,087,526 3.547581879
Incredibles 2 $608,581,744 $182,687,905 3.331264563
Monsters University $268,492,764 $82,429,469 3.257242431
The Good Dinosaur $123,087,120 $39,155,217 3.143568838
Cars 2 $191,452,396 $66,135,507 2.894850356
Cars 3 $152,901,115 $53,688,680 2.847920921
Lightyear $118,307,188 $50,577,961 2.339105525
Onward $61,555,145 $39,119,861 1.573501118

For comparison's sake:

Elemental Drop from weekend 1 to weekend 5: -69.3%
Lightyear drop from weekend 1 to weekend 2: -64.1%

With Elemental's Tuesday $1.9M tally, it's moved past Up to #5 on Pixar's leggiest movies list:

Toy Story $191,796,233 $29,140,617 6.581749213
A Bug's Life $162,798,565 $33,258,052 4.895012041
Finding Nemo $339,714,978 $70,251,710 4.83568269
Ratatouille $206,445,654 $47,027,395 4.389901971
Elemental $128.8M* $29,602,429 4.35* estimate
Up $293,004,164 $68,108,790 4.302002194
Toy Story 2 $245,852,179 $57,388,839 4.283971993
Coco $210,460,015 $50,802,605 4.142701245
Monsters, Inc. $255,873,250 $62,577,067 4.088930055
Cars $244,082,982 $60,119,509 4.059962998
Inside Out $356,461,711 $90,440,272 3.941404676
Toy Story 3 $415,004,880 $110,307,189 3.762265032
The Incredibles $261,441,092 $70,467,623 3.710088135
Finding Dory $486,295,561 $135,060,273 3.600581801
Toy Story 4 $434,038,008 $120,908,065 3.589818496
Brave $237,283,207 $66,323,594 3.577659061
WALL·E $223,808,164 $63,087,526 3.547581879
Incredibles 2 $608,581,744 $182,687,905 3.331264563
Monsters University $268,492,764 $82,429,469 3.257242431
The Good Dinosaur $123,087,120 $39,155,217 3.143568838
Cars 2 $191,452,396 $66,135,507 2.894850356
Cars 3 $152,901,115 $53,688,680 2.847920921
Lightyear $118,307,188 $50,577,961 2.339105525
Onward $61,555,145 $39,119,861 1.573501118

Elemental made $1.39M on Wed moving past Ratatouille to now rank as 4th leggiest Pixar movie:

Toy Story $191,796,233 $29,140,617 6.581749213
A Bug's Life $162,798,565 $33,258,052 4.895012041
Finding Nemo $339,714,978 $70,251,710 4.83568269

Elemental $130,270,187 $29,602,429 4.400658709

Ratatouille $206,445,654 $47,027,395 4.389901971
Up $293,004,164 $68,108,790 4.302002194
Toy Story 2 $245,852,179 $57,388,839 4.283971993
Coco $210,460,015 $50,802,605 4.142701245
Monsters, Inc. $255,873,250 $62,577,067 4.088930055
Cars $244,082,982 $60,119,509 4.059962998
Inside Out $356,461,711 $90,440,272 3.941404676
Toy Story 3 $415,004,880 $110,307,189 3.762265032
The Incredibles $261,441,092 $70,467,623 3.710088135
Finding Dory $486,295,561 $135,060,273 3.600581801
Toy Story 4 $434,038,008 $120,908,065 3.589818496
Brave $237,283,207 $66,323,594 3.577659061
WALL·E $223,808,164 $63,087,526 3.547581879
Incredibles 2 $608,581,744 $182,687,905 3.331264563
Monsters University $268,492,764 $82,429,469 3.257242431
The Good Dinosaur $123,087,120 $39,155,217 3.143568838
Cars 2 $191,452,396 $66,135,507 2.894850356
Cars 3 $152,901,115 $53,688,680 2.847920921
Lightyear $118,307,188 $50,577,961 2.339105525
Onward $61,555,145 $39,119,861 1.573501118

Both Toy Story and A Bug's Life benefitted from the holiday season so really just behind Finding Nemo for non-holiday movies. It could be at $137M by the end of the weekend. It maybe has a chance at $170M if it manages to hold on this weekend which is crazy for a movie these days that missed $30M.