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 KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - FINAL RESULTS (Page 5) 
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Defeats all expectations
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
moviegeek151 wrote:

And Rocketman just got slapped with an R-rating which would chop my prediction down by about half. Ugh.


I'm more interested now. It should still do $100m+.


Wed May 08, 2019 3:13 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
moviegeek151 wrote:
And Rocketman just got slapped with an R-rating which would chop my prediction down by about half. Ugh.



Yeah. People did not go see A Star Is Born with an R rating.

I figured it would be "R." The filmmakers had no intention of editing it even though apparently the studio wanted them to. Advanced WOM is great so reviews will really help. Trailer has been showing with every movie since it released. No way it's not a 100+ grosser. With your prediction half would be 58.5. Do you really think it will do 60 or below just because it's rated R?

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Wed May 08, 2019 2:36 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
Maybe I'm just the only person who thinks the movie looks way too light and goofy to be taken seriously by the adult R-rated crowd that came out for Star is Born. Plus October is a very different time to release a prestige-y, R-rated drama than the heat of summer.

I could be wrong (and it'd work out nicely with my prediction if I was!)


Wed May 08, 2019 5:52 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
It definitely doesn't seem like a serious drama. Does seem more fun. Makes me think of Great Gatsby in a way.

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Thu May 09, 2019 1:19 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
Magic Mike wrote:
It definitely doesn't seem like a serious drama. Does seem more fun. Makes me think of Great Gatsby in a way.


I feel like Elton John is a Katy Perry/Bruno Mars type of pop star where their songs are hits because people like the songs, not because of the artist. I think Queen is closer to a Taylor Swift where people are huge fans and devour anything by them. I think this will make a big difference because technically Elton John had far more chart success than Queen ever did, but doesn't seem any better remembered.

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Thu May 09, 2019 10:53 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
That's a peak zwackerm post.

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Thu May 09, 2019 11:23 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
They're absolute morons if they don't change the release date for Child's Play. Hell Christmas would be a better date. At least it takes place around Christmas and they can play up that angle. Annabelle is going to kill it. It was always going to but with that moving up to Wednesday it won't even have an entire week before that opens. If it doesn't move though I'm just happy to have the lowest prediction.

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Fri May 10, 2019 10:06 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
There's definitely something hilarious about 2 different killer doll movies, both deep into a franchise nonetheless, coming out less than a week apart, lol.

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Fri May 10, 2019 11:20 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
So a lot of those Top 5's will be wrong because of Pikachu. Me, David, and stuffp are still in it! WTF happened with BK? He's usually fairly pessimistic with trash movies but he put it as the #2 choice!!!


Sat May 11, 2019 5:39 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
I was banking on a repeat of Transformers 07.

I guess Pokemon really can't expand its fanbase even with the crazy amounts of people who played Pokemon Go even for a little bit. Thought the trailer would be enough to convince them but it looks like it really didn't work. I really have no idea why.

Anyway, I'm kinda annoyed that Poms and the Hustle bombed so badly as well this weekend. Like honestly WTF haha.

It seems like these types of movies - whenever I think there's no way they do well in some of these games, then they get that average gross. And when I predict some generic average gross that these flicks normally get, $30-40m etc. they bomb to hell. Come on. :funny:

Uglydolls too, I think I may still get points, but not sure how other crappy looking animated flicks of yesteryear or even something like Wonder Park, grosses that much and then this one tanks. They both look equally bad.

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Sat May 11, 2019 12:05 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Charts on Page #3
Pokemon GO was a fad. Anybody should've been able to see it. And it wasn't because of Pokemon. It was because of the nature of the game. It could've just as easily been Transformers GO or Doraemon GO if they'd got in first. The same as Pokemon cards. That was also a fad.


Sat May 11, 2019 8:24 pm
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Weekly Ranking for May 12

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Total Gross Projections
Avengers: Endgame - $900 million
The Intruder - $32 million
Uglydolls - $22 million
Detective Pikachu - $150 million
The Hustle - $35 million
Poms - $13 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Endgame - $723.5 million
2. Detective Pikachu - $58.0 million
3. The Intruder - $21.0 million
4. Uglydolls - $14.3 million
5. The Hustle - $13.5 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend or the total gross of Aladdin?
  • Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend ($357.1 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Uglydolls or the adult combo of Child's Play, Hobbs & Shaw, The Intruder, Ma, and Shaft?
  • The family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold (currently $72.3 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - The Angry Birds 2, Annabelle Comes Home, Avengers: Endgame, A Dog's Journey, John Wick: Chapter 3, Men in Black International, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, or Toy Story 4?
  • Avengers: Endgame (+6.6%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Avengers: Endgame (+6.6%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Detective Pikachu (currently $58.0 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Hesburgh (-13 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • One (Avengers: Endgame)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • One (Avengers: Endgame)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Long Shot (currently $19.7 million)


Sun May 12, 2019 9:20 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
Algren wrote:
Pokemon GO was a fad. Anybody should've been able to see it. And it wasn't because of Pokemon. It was because of the nature of the game. It could've just as easily been Transformers GO or Doraemon GO if they'd got in first. The same as Pokemon cards. That was also a fad.


Nah, you needed a base of characters for it to work.

Pokemon had at least 151 that many people knew to get it started. Nostalgia etc.

Jurassic Park tried it but that game is minuscule in comparison. Transformers and Doraemon? Like I said before, I doubt 90% of the audience for TF knew about the characters and the majority of those even now don't know them aside from Optimus Prime and Bumblebee. I don't even know if Doraemon has characters besides the titular character.

Hard for you to say what's a fad or not because it feels like you underpredict across the board even more than I used to do.

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Tue May 21, 2019 3:16 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
Fads have nothing to do with predictions. Hindsight can tell you what was a fad or not.


Tue May 21, 2019 3:22 am
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Weekly Ranking for May 26

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Total Gross Projections
Avengers: Endgame - $840 million
The Intruder - $36 million
Uglydolls - $19.5 million
Detective Pikachu - $144 million
The Hustle - $36 million
Poms - $13.8 million
A Dog's Journey - $21 million
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - $138 million
Aladdin - $275 million
Booksmart - $18 million
Brightburn - $22 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Endgame - $798.6 million
2. Detective Pikachu - $116.2 million
3. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - $101.2 million
4. Aladdin - $90.4 million
5. The Intruder - $32.0 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend or the total gross of Aladdin?
  • Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend ($357.1 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Uglydolls or the adult combo of Child's Play, Hobbs & Shaw, The Intruder, Ma, and Shaft?
  • The family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Uglydolls (currently $135.0 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - The Angry Birds 2, Annabelle Comes Home, Avengers: Endgame, A Dog's Journey, John Wick: Chapter 3, Men in Black International, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, or Toy Story 4?
  • A Dog's Journey (+76.8%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - The Angry Birds 2, Annabelle Comes Home, Avengers: Endgame, A Dog's Journey, John Wick: Chapter 3, Men in Black International, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, or Toy Story 4?
  • John Wick: Chapter 3 (+10.0%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Detective Pikachu (currently $116.2 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Poms (-1,839 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Three (Avengers: Endgame, Detective Pikachu, John Wick: Chapter 3)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • One (Avengers: Endgame)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Long Shot (currently $28.8 million)


Mon May 27, 2019 5:35 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
I was #1 last week? hmm. weird


Mon May 27, 2019 10:34 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
Algren wrote:
I was #1 last week? hmm. weird

No I'm sorry- I have you and Price reversed for last week's position.


Tue May 28, 2019 12:04 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
Ah I see. Damn, Price really screwed up.


Tue May 28, 2019 12:09 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
Algren wrote:
Ah I see. Damn, Price really screwed up.


Hey! I didn't screw up! It's those idiots that went to see certain movies and didn't go to others that did. :censored:

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Tue May 28, 2019 11:27 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: May
lol
Lots of bad predictions by me

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Thu May 30, 2019 12:43 pm
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Weekly Ranking for June 2

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Total Gross Projections
Avengers: Endgame - $840 million
The Intruder - $36 million
Uglydolls - $19.9 million
Detective Pikachu - $145 million
The Hustle - $35 million
Poms - $13.8 million
A Dog's Journey - $20 million
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - $150 million
Aladdin - $275 million
Booksmart - $18 million
Brightburn - $17 million
Godzilla: King of the Monsters - $115 million
Ma - $56 million
Rocketman - $90 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Endgame - $815.5 million
2. Aladdin - $185.0 million
3. Detective Pikachu - $130.6 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - $125.8 million
5. Godzilla: King of the Monsters - $49.0 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend or the total gross of Aladdin?
  • Avengers: Endgame's 3-day opening weekend ($357.1 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Uglydolls or the adult combo of Child's Play, Hobbs & Shaw, The Intruder, Ma, and Shaft?
  • The family combo of Detective Pikachu, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Uglydolls (currently $150.2 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - The Angry Birds 2, Annabelle Comes Home, Avengers: Endgame, A Dog's Journey, John Wick: Chapter 3, Men in Black International, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, or Toy Story 4?
  • A Dog's Journey (-70.9%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - The Angry Birds 2, Annabelle Comes Home, Avengers: Endgame, A Dog's Journey, John Wick: Chapter 3, Men in Black International, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, or Toy Story 4?
  • Avengers: Endgame (+20.1%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Detective Pikachu (currently $130.6 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • The Sun is Also a Star (-1,978 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Four (Avengers: Endgame, Detective Pikachu, John Wick: Chapter 3, Aladdin)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • One (Avengers: Endgame)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Long Shot (currently $29.9 million)


Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:52 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: Jun
Damn lol


Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:10 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: Jun
I can't believe that even mid range films can't even get anywhere near 40 million let alone 50. Hustle, Dog's Journey. Shaft is probably gonna tank at 35. Child's Play and Dora probably gonna tank too.

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Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:46 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: Jun
Looks like the top 4 will be some combination of Avengers, Lion King, Toy Story, and Spiderman (my guess is that order). 5th place will likely be SLOP2 or Aladdin. I'm rooting for a top 5 spoiler though. Hobbs & Shaw could break out to near 300m and take 5th.


Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2019 - Points Update: Jun
Luckily I'm still getting points for Godzilla even though I revised my prediction upwards.

Trailer didn't look too bad, but no one asked for a sequel + bad reception.

Really sad that Avengers sputtered out so badly. Yeah, it's not like my new dom #1 was a safe prediction, but it could've been a lot closer to SW than Avatar.

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Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:38 pm
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