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 Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018) 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Avengers: Infinity War: $27M-$30M (-73% from last Friday), $106M-$115M weekend
Overboard : $4.3M-$4.5M, $13.5M weekend
A Quiet Place : $7.5M-$8.5M weekend
I Feel Pretty : $4.9M (-40%)
Tully : $1.3M-$1.5M, $4M-$4.2M Friday
Bad Samaritan : $750K, $2M weekend

http://deadline.com/2018/05/avengers-in ... 202382713/


Fri May 04, 2018 8:51 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Weaker increase for AIW than I anticipated.

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Fri May 04, 2018 9:01 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Rth has 31-34m.


Fri May 04, 2018 9:03 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Yep. Unless that number goes up its really week. It barely matched the original's Friday might even drop from that if it comes at the lower end of that projection.


Fri May 04, 2018 9:04 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Cynosure wrote:
Rth has 31-34m.


Yep just saw that. That would be better but slightly less increase than original's 135.8% jump on Friday (which would mean $36.5m Friday). Hopefully it can go up from here :P


Fri May 04, 2018 9:08 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
It should still top 115m-120m for the weekend

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Fri May 04, 2018 9:19 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Weekends will be 120m

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Fri May 04, 2018 10:59 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
I'm very disappointed in that 2m for BS. Totally killed my theatre lineup. Oh well.

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Fri May 04, 2018 11:20 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
nghtvsn wrote:
I'm very disappointed in that 2m for BS. Totally killed my theatre lineup. Oh well.


I'm glad I didn't play it. Was never tempted. I was however tempted to change to six Tully this morning because I think it should do 5-6 but just didn't want to risk it. I did two Avengers Friday, an Overboard, 3 Black Panther and two Truth or Dare.


Fri May 04, 2018 11:41 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Overboard had the potential to do more given that it's targeting Latino audience plus romantic movie fans.


Fri May 04, 2018 11:43 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Well it also should have had more theaters. My cousins want to see it and none of their local theaters are carrying it. I think this appeals to more than just the Latino audience. More than his previous film did. They should have gone for 2,000+. I assume they'll add some theaters for next weekend though. Regardless it's a strong albeit expected opening.


Fri May 04, 2018 11:47 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
It's strong and I do believe it will do great next weekend with Mother's Day weekend boost.


Fri May 04, 2018 11:50 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
There's an unusually high amount of movies appealing to moms for Mother's Day this year. Life of the Party, Breaking In, Overboard, Tully.


Fri May 04, 2018 11:52 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
I don't think Tully is going to benefit much because it's so small anyways. But the other three will benefit to some extent but it's surely won't be big enough like Snatched.


Sat May 05, 2018 12:07 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
DH updated the numbers:

1 Avengers: Infinity War Dis 4,474 $30.3M (-72%) $115.1M (-55%) $453.5M
2 Overboard LG/MGM 1,623 $4.4M $13.1M
3 A Quiet Place Par 3,413 (-152) $2.2M (-32%) $7.4M (-32%) $159.7M
4 I Feel Pretty STX 3,232 (-208) $1.6M (-37%) $5.2M (-36%) $38.1M
5 Rampage NL/WB 3,151 (-357) $1.1M (-37%) $4.6M (-36%) $84.8M
6 Tully Focus 1,353 $1.3M $3.5M
7 Black Panther Dis 1,641 (-9) $959K (-30%) $3.3M (-30%) $693.3M
8 Truth or Dare Uni/Blumhouse 1,904 (-516) $554K (-45%) $1.82M (-44%) $38.3M
9 Bad Samaritan Elec 2,007 $650K $1.8M —
10 Super troopers 2 FSL 2,118 (-7) $519k (-54%) $1.75M (-53%) $25.3M


Sat May 05, 2018 3:09 am
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
That's actually solid for Overboard. That guy really does have some pull in the Madea sense.

Rampage is not gonna hit 100 million. IW killed it.

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Sat May 05, 2018 9:40 am
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
I'm seeing a 31.428M Fri estimate for IW. That would put it's likely weekend range at 105-120M. A 53-59% drop. Honestly, completely expected numbers. How boring. Overboard overperforming spices the weekend up a bit, too bad it wasn't released in more theaters.


Sat May 05, 2018 10:47 am
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
After 31.5 Friday, should be able to reach 115-120 for the weekend. 120 would give it a 458 total after 10 days. Amazing number compared to everything else in box office history...except Force Awakens at an insane 540 total in 10 days.


Sat May 05, 2018 11:48 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Yeah so it did come in at the lower end of projections of Rth with $31.4m, that's a 100% increase and much lesser than the original Avengers' 135% increase.


Sat May 05, 2018 11:49 am
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Yeah so it did come in at the lower end of projections of Rth with $31.4m, that's a 100% increase and much lesser than the original Avengers' 135% increase.


Pretty much identical to Panther's second Friday percentage increase. If it follows Panther's daily percentages for Saturday/Sunday, it will finish the weekend at $122m. I think Panther had the stronger WOM, so that is a tough expectation for Infinity. Probably will be 117-120.


Sat May 05, 2018 11:56 am
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Anecdotally, out of my friends, family, people I work with and random people I’ve talked to at bars - I had the most problems with it by far. People really like the ending.


Sat May 05, 2018 2:03 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Lol - how was Overboard only in 1,623 theaters? That's almost the same theaters that Tully is in, and Overboard's doing 3 times its per-theater-average.


Sat May 05, 2018 3:28 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Stuff won't have great increases today if they increase at all right? With Cinco De Mayo and all.


Sat May 05, 2018 4:23 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
Magic Mike wrote:
Stuff won't have great increases today if they increase at all right? With Cinco De Mayo and all.


in 2012 when 5/5 last fell on Saturday, everything increased except Avengers in it's opening weekend. Perhaps the increases will be muted a bit, but I don't think it will have a big impact.


Sat May 05, 2018 4:37 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday/Weekend Projections (May, 04, 2018)
SolC9 wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Stuff won't have great increases today if they increase at all right? With Cinco De Mayo and all.


in 2012 when 5/5 last fell on Saturday, everything increased except Avengers in it's opening weekend. Perhaps the increases will be muted a bit, but I don't think it will have a big impact.


Maybe Overboard will be affected most by May 5th. The rest will see little to no impact.


Sat May 05, 2018 8:22 pm
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