Winchester - $6M (2300 theaters)

I don't think Jumanji will top this weekend. Even with a 50% drop MR will do more than $11m a mark which I think Jumanji will fall just short of next weekend.

It's not impossible yet though. It will depend on its weekdays and depend how fans love MR3.

Never said impossible

Manchester - $10.4 million

Maze Runner: The Death Cure -55%
Jumanji -24%
Hostiles -35%
The Greatest Showman -10%

Jumanji has yet to have a bigger weekend drop than 31%, and I imagine it'll have one of its softer weekend drops when there's only one new release. I think it'll be a tight three-way race for #1, but Jumanji will pull through in the end, making it only the third movie this century to be #1 in its seventh weekend, after The Passion and Avatar. Kind of exciting, actually, even if it's gonna be adull weekend overall.

MR3 opened lower so I think it won't drop as hard as the last movie did 52.9%. I'm predicting a 49% drop for it to clear $12m mark

They're re-releasing this hoping people will think it's last year's Oscar season?

Anyway, Winchester is an easy #1. Expect good sized drops for everything though. Fucking Super Bowl.


WINCHESTER - 16.2 Million


Could do more. It's going to skew much older than most horror films with Helen Mirren in the lead but will also have young appeal.

Yeah Winchester could easily clear $15m mark.

Except TGS will hold on much better than the others. It will have a harsher drop next weekend simply due to SB but a sub-20% drop is still within reach.

Yeah obviously it won't have a horrible drop but it will be underwhelming for it considering how well it has been holding.

The fact there is only one release may offset the bigger than usual SB drop so TGS should still make it relatively unscathed. A 20% drop would still be decent.

Agreed with that until the lacking-confidence theater estimate.

True with 2300 theaters only and superbowl weekend it's looking more likely to do sub-$10m

It's honestly ridiculous it's not opening in close to 3,000 theaters. The studio's similar looking The Woman In Black opened in 2,856 over Super Bowl weekend. It's the only movie opening. Crazy not to put it in a bunch of theaters. It's not like it doesn't have commercial appeal.

I think it looks really good and Mirren as a lead interests me. The Roommate and The Messenger both opened to around $15m with a similar count, so Winchester could certainly hit that mark.

Yeah I don't see it doing less. Plus Mirren is more of a draw than anyone in those movies.

Yeah this weekend will work well for Winchester - expecting $14-$17m actually.

With that theater count I think it will do $11m-$13m. Its not the first horror movie of the year as well so it won't benefit from that and Mirren is decent as a draw in an ensemble.

I see a bit of a bomb here. $8m opening

I agree algren. Hellen Mirren is a draw ... for older people who will be watching the superbowl. You wanna target teenage girls for this weekend and I’m not sure Winchester can do that.

Teenagers love horror films.

1. WINCHESTER - 16.2 MILLION (New)
2. MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE - 11.1 MILLION (-54%)
3. JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE - 10.8 MILLION (-33%)
4. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN - 7.64 MILLION (-20%)
5. HOSTILES - 6.268 MILLION (-38%)
6. THE POST - 6.192 MILLION (-32%)
7. THE SHAPE OF WATER - 5.389 MILLION (-9%)
8. DEN OF THIEVES - 4.66 MILLION (-46%)
9. 12 STRONG - 4.6 MILLION (-47%)
10. PADDINGTON 2 - 3.74 MILLION (-34%)
11. THREE BILLBOARDS - 3.418 MILLION (-11%)
12. I, TONYA - 2.846 MILLION (-6%)
13. FOREVER MY GIRL - 2.747 MILLION (-23%)
14. PHANTOM THREAD - 2.594 MILLION (-13%)
15. STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI - 2.254 MILLION (-47%)

Seems way to generous of a drop for Hostiles.

Yep Hostiles will drop 50% or more

Tracking has Winchester in the single digits which sounds about right to me. I mean is there any buzz for that movie? Also, I love Helen Mirren, but she is not a box office draw and even if she was among older audiences they will probably have better things to do like watch the Superbowl. Maybe if its able to attract teens that can push it to $10M, but I wouldn't bet on it.