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 Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club 
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Deshi Basara
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Post Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
An inevitable club - might as well get it started. Domestic, of course.

As much faith as I have in Cameron, as ill-advised as it may be to bet against him, and as massive as Avatar was compared to any of the Star Wars films, I still don't see Avatar beating SW. I just can't see Avatar creating that loyal/consistant a subculture as with Star Wars. My gut tells me that too many people will be either put off by or simply uninterested in the continuing Pandora saga.

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Last edited by Proud Ryu on Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:06 pm, edited 5 times in total.



Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:55 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
IN


Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:09 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Honestly - no clue.

Overseas, however, Avatar 2 will make more than Episode 7 and 8 combined, I guarantee that.

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:45 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
For domestic - IN.

The only year they go head to head is 17 so that will be interesting - though I suspect the third Avatar will drop from the 2nd (which will drop from the 1st). Basically a Pirates scenario.

I really don't think the interest is their for 3 Avatar films back to back to back to do mega numbers.

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:13 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
MadGez wrote:
For domestic - IN.

The only year they go head to head is 17 so that will be interesting - though I suspect the third Avatar will drop from the 2nd (which will drop from the 1st). Basically a Pirates scenario.

I really don't think the interest is their for 3 Avatar films back to back to back to do mega numbers.


And by "no interest is there" you mean that the fourth Avatr migh gross only $1.2-1.5 billion worldwide? ;)

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:21 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Dr. Lecter wrote:
And by "no interest is there" you mean that the fourth Avatr migh gross only $1.2-1.5 billion worldwide? ;)


I can see it. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey made $1B WW and yet its domestic performance was still considered a disappointment compared to how huge the LOTR trilogy was.

If the sequels' returns end up diminishing to something like $450m domestic for film 4, while it would still be huge by normal movie standards, it would definitely be disappointing by the standards of the first movie.


Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:27 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
As of now I have no idea which one will do better. On a personal note I would still give Avatar the edge here but both movies are so far its difficult to say which one will do good.


Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:46 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Dr. Lecter wrote:
MadGez wrote:
For domestic - IN.

The only year they go head to head is 17 so that will be interesting - though I suspect the third Avatar will drop from the 2nd (which will drop from the 1st). Basically a Pirates scenario.

I really don't think the interest is their for 3 Avatar films back to back to back to do mega numbers.


And by "no interest is there" you mean that the fourth Avatr migh gross only $1.2-1.5 billion worldwide? ;)


yes ;)

I really think the Pirates example is quite apt - but obviously on a higher playing field. Obviously not film by film behaviour but overall trend.

The 2nd one will have a huge OW and still be huge overall (but make less than Avatar 1) while the third comes out too close to the previous and drops and the fourth drops even further. Though all the sequels are still huge OS.

I guess it also depends if the three films are a standalone trilogy and how much each film makes people want to see the next (ie. LOTR).

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:18 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
No way Star Wars beats the Man.

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:42 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Star Wars has better product placement IMO. The 2 year gap is much better than throwing off three movies each year. It worked for LOTR cause they were a trilogy together but good standalone movies as well. If Avatar sequels manage that then I guess we see drop in direct sequel and rest two making almost the same as A2.


Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:46 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Out.

I'm gonna have my SW midnight in hand but Avatar 2 is gonna be making close to or at 500 million.

ROTS made 370. SW may be quite nostalgic and popular in general but it will certainly open amazingly, however, it's gonna peeter out like all the prequels did. 425-475 MAX. That's my thought.

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Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:40 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Domestic IN
OS Out
WW Out

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:56 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Way out. Star Wars will win opening weekend but with legs, it's gonna be all Avatar.

Star Wars has a loyal fanbase...but it's just that. A loyal fanbase. It's not going to grab the same demographics that Avatar pulled in or get audiences that did not see or care about the Star Wars saga. Plus Avatar 2, 3 and 4 will still generate a lot of interest from non-internet crowds, no matter what they are saying about Avatar now. Even if Star Wars has an ascending trend vs. a declining trend for Avatar, Avatar would still come out ahead comfortably.

Star Wars 7 - 475m
Star Wars 8 - 500m
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Total - 1.525b

Avatar 2 - 570m
Avatar 3 - 535m
Avatar 4 - 510m
Total - 1.615b

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:22 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Kinda agree but

Bluebomb wrote:

Star Wars has a loyal fanbase...but it's just that. A loyal fanbase. It's not going to grab the same demographics that Avatar pulled in or get audiences that did not see or care about the Star Wars saga.


Domestic BO history speaks for itself:

DOMESTIC GROSSES
Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation


2 Star Wars Fox $1,453,455,900 $460,998,007 1977^
12 The Empire Strikes Back Fox $801,154,000 $290,475,067 1980^
14 Avatar Fox $793,603,000 $760,507,625 2009^
15 Return of the Jedi Fox $767,524,800 $309,306,177 1983^

In those years, Star Wars grabbed many demographics and got audiences to care about Star Wars Saga

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:38 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Partially yes. But Avatar did it in an era of expensive tickets. Comparing 3-4 decades of inflation against a recent film to me sheds a more positive light on Avatar. Would those Star Wars have made that much money now? No.

The question is how much will people pay to see Star Wars now on the big screen? I think Avatar has proven that people will spend big bucks to catch something entertaining at the theater. And while 3D has been losing its lustre now, people still hold 3D to the highest standard with Avatar so 3D share will be higher for at least Avatar 2 and possibly 3 and 4.

(Q: Has Star Wars 7/8/9 been confirmed to be in 3D yet?)

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:53 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
There's also the fact that Star Wars came out in one of the era's where it was a spectacle. There are quite a few sci-fi movies now in the market and so many for space adventures. I don't see how Star Wars has an upper hand here.


Last edited by Jack Sparrow on Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:43 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:29 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
gutsy club, but Cameron's love child will place itself above Lucas' in this next coming round.

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:28 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
If we get something annoying like Episode 1 then Avatar will win.

And is it confirmed that there will be three new Avatar movies?

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:57 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
FILMO wrote:
And is it confirmed that there will be three new Avatar movies?

Yes.

We won't get as bad movies as the prequels since JJ is not a hack. And if the original actors return for more than just a cameo, they might have a chance to at least match the Avatar sequels, domestically at least.

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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Overseas, however, Avatar 2 will make more than Episode 7 and 8 combined, I guarantee that.


Episode I did nearly 500m OS in 1999. You don't think with 16 years of inflation + 3D + IMAX + expanded OS market + better WOM that Episode 7 can't do $2B OS?

I mean, I agree Avatar 2 is favored overseas but I don't think its a gurantee that Star Wars won't come close to it.

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:44 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
The keys that will determine which series wins is how well they tap into the zeitgeist and how good of a love story is told.

Avatar tapped the environmentalism angle pretty well, while tossing in every genre needed to get all demographics in. If environmentalism becomes an increasingly hot topic, Avatar could capitalize, but like Titanic, the star crossed love story angle is easier to milk for a one shot film.

Star Wars OT did the the love story angle very well, and got it to build all the way up to the very end. It really made the trilogy something for women to watch. Prequel trilogy was really for the fanboys mostly, and getting a new generation of kids with Phantom Menace. The love story wasn't compelling enough, and too dismal, for women to sit through.

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:54 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
I wanna know who is in SW first.

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:59 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Out. Avatar will win both domestic & overseas. And it's not going to be close.


Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:47 am
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Magnus wrote:
Episode I did nearly 500m OS in 1999. You don't think with 16 years of inflation + 3D + IMAX + expanded OS market + better WOM that Episode 7 can't do $2B OS?

*lol* no

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:09 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars VII-IX > Avatar 2-4 Club
Did Magnus really suggest that SW7 might do $2+ bil OS?

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Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:16 pm
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