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 Weekend Estimates (May 5-7) 
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KJ's Leading Pundit
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Post Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - $145 mil

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Sun May 07, 2017 11:13 am
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Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
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Location: Arlington, VA
Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
1 N GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 BV $145,049,000 - 4,347 - $33,368 $145,049,000 1
2 1 THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS Uni. $8,528,965 -57.2% 3,595 -482 $2,372 $207,136,495 4
3 4 THE BOSS BABY Fox $6,175,000 -34.1% 3,284 -455 $1,880 $156,735,525 6
4 2 HOW TO BE A LATIN LOVER PNT $5,250,000 -57.2% 1,203 +85 $4,364 $20,653,320 2
5 6 BEAUTY AND THE BEAST BV $4,943,000 -27.6% 2,680 -475 $1,844 $487,594,615 8
6 5 THE CIRCLE STX $4,020,000 -55.5% 3,163 - $1,271 $15,715,113 2
7 3 BAAHUBALI 2: THE CONCLUSION GrtIndia $3,242,532 -68.9% 418 -7 $7,757 $16,175,528 2
8 9 GIFTED FoxS $2,055,000 -38.9% 1,874 -341 $1,097 $19,240,331 5
9 7 GOING IN STYLE WB (NL) $1,900,000 -47.3% 2,033 -728 $935 $40,600,918 5
10 8 SMURFS: THE LOST VILLAGE Sony $1,820,000 -48.8% 1,902 -652 $957 $40,570,574 5

11 11 BORN IN CHINA BV $1,210,000 -49.3% 1,414 -94 $856 $10,933,911 3
12 12 THE LOST CITY OF Z BST $1,047,249 -42.0% 815 -51 $1,285 $6,643,433 4
13 N THE DINNER Orch. $755,348 - 505 - $1,496 $755,348 1
14 14 SLEIGHT BH Tilt $743,410 -56.3% 591 +26 $1,258 $2,976,605 2
15 13 GET OUT Uni. $720,525 -57.9% 818 -745 $881 $173,845,510 11
16 10 UNFORGETTABLE WB $665,000 -72.4% 1,003 -1,414 $663 $10,625,111 3
17 17 THE ZOOKEEPER'S WIFE Focus $539,715 -45.6% 655 -342 $824 $15,807,876 6

18 28 NORMAN SPC $481,467 +111.1% 125 +78 $3,852 $1,095,054 4
19 23 THEIR FINEST STX $420,000 -17.9% 323 -7 $1,300 $2,450,000 5
24 22 COLOSSAL Neon $200,000 -61.6% 242 -84 $827 $2,500,627 5
25 34 A QUIET PASSION MBox $156,554 +54.7% 79 +35 $1,982 $488,488 4
29 N RISK Neon $75,179 - 34 - $2,211 $75,179 1
30 N THE LOVERS A24 $70,410 - 4 - $17,603 $70,410 1
34 N CHUCK IFC $40,416 - 4 - $10,104 $40,416 1
38 N 3 GENERATIONS Wein. $20,118 - 6 - $3,353 $20,118 1

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =18&p=.htm


Sun May 07, 2017 11:30 am
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Wallflower
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Colossal had a colossal drop. :(


Sun May 07, 2017 11:57 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Almost 50% increase over OW for GotG2 is great. Legs won't be great this time but I can see this doing $350m+ though it had potential to do $400m.

Fate is dropping harder than F6 and is $12m behind. I see it missing $225m at the current pace, it surely doesn't need those 3000+ theaters for its $5m or lower next weekend.

TBB since last three weekends has started to gain on Home and is now just $2m behind. I see it ending with $180m total now as no competition till Cars 3 (Wimpy Kid is from Fox anyways).

BatB is surely crossing $500m now, which is HUGE.


Sun May 07, 2017 12:09 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:43 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Great opening for Guardians 2. It had the largest sequel increase of any movie in the MCU (minus CW since it was essentially Avengers 3) which is made even more impressive by the fact that the last one already had the 2nd highest OW of any non-sequel/ensemble. Its opening definitely pales a bit compared to expectations, but I think its legs will be much better than most other MCU movies. I could definitely see it legging its way to $370-400M based on WOM and it seems to appeal to more casual superhero fans.

Pretty decent hold for F8 considering the competition and the fight on Sat night. Still going to fall about 10M short of F6 though, which is pretty bad considering how huge the one in between was. Should pass BatB within the week to hit #1 WW for the year.

Boss Baby has really held on great since it's 2nd weekend drop. Should wind up with around 175M and over 500M WW (no clue how many major markets it has left) which is a shocking success for DreamWorks.

Pretty poor hold for HTBALL after an amazing opening. It's pretty clear that the fight had a major effect on Saturday, but even it's Friday hold was terrible. Should even out next weekend, when Instructions Not Included had a fight effect a weekend, the following weekend it saw an increase despite not gaining a significant amount of theaters.

Not sure what to make of Baahubali 2's hold, I feel like most Indian films are front loaded and I know this one had expensive ticket prices last weekend.

Get Out finally hits 200M WW! Pretty pumped about that one :thumbsup:


Sun May 07, 2017 12:25 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Guardians is probably underestimated by about 2 million. That's a steep Sunday drop for a well received huge opener. I think it will fall closer to 20% on Sunday for a 147-148 weekend. It will probably drop about 55% next weekend to 65-66ish million. Then the following weekend about 45% to 37 million. Then another 45% over Memorial Day to 20 million. It will probably start losing theaters the next weekend, but the competition isn't so bad that it will be falling 55%+ every weekend.

I think it can hit at least 375 million. I have it at 390m personally.


Sun May 07, 2017 12:36 pm
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Forum General

Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Nice weekend recovery for Guardians. It may finish above the first one after all, but I still don't see it coming close to $400M unless it has a really good drop next week. When all is said and done it will be regarded as a success by the studios, but I believe it could have done more had they not dropped the ball with the marketing after that second trailer.


Sun May 07, 2017 1:00 pm
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The Wall
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Dil wrote:
Nice weekend recovery for Guardians.

Because it had something to recover from?


Sun May 07, 2017 2:06 pm
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Wall-E

Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 6:07 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Pirates was the only thing of its kind at the time, Dark Knight had the Heath Ledger buzz and was coming off a string of very disappointing comic book movies and Transformers, well, we'll never be able to make sense out of Transformers.

Guardians had to not only deal with the fact there's rarely a time now that a Marvel movie isn't in theaters, but Star Wars scratches a lot of itches now. (Also, there's a supermegablockbuster still in theaters). People aren't fatigued, but they're not starving either.


Sun May 07, 2017 3:54 pm
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Speed Racer
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
_axiom wrote:
Dil wrote:
Nice weekend recovery for Guardians.

Because it had something to recover from?


Preview / Friday numbers maybe?


Sun May 07, 2017 5:58 pm
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Skyblade wrote:
Transformers, well, we'll never be able to make sense out of Transformers..


What? The first was not only a classic popcorn crowd please, but the special fx were incredible. When the original opened about ten years ago, about half of the forum had Transformers gifs for avatars. The sequel blowing up was an easy call.

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Sun May 07, 2017 8:13 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Excel wrote:
Skyblade wrote:
Transformers, well, we'll never be able to make sense out of Transformers..


What? The first was not only a classic popcorn crowd please, but the special fx were incredible. When the original opened about ten years ago, about half of the forum had Transformers gifs for avatars. The sequel blowing up was an easy call.


What?


Sun May 07, 2017 10:38 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
emste26 wrote:
Not sure what to make of Baahubali 2's hold, I feel like most Indian films are front loaded and I know this one had expensive ticket prices last weekend.


Indian movies plummet in high-70's to low-80's range so this is a good hold for B2.


Sun May 07, 2017 10:39 pm
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The Wall
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Star Lord wrote:
_axiom wrote:
Dil wrote:
Nice weekend recovery for Guardians.

Because it had something to recover from?


Preview / Friday numbers maybe?

Those were good.


Mon May 08, 2017 2:41 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates (May 5-7)
Looks like GOTG2 opens to around $146.5m according to BOT Forum...

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Mon May 08, 2017 11:55 am
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