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 Detroit predictions 
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Post Detroit predictions


Kathryn Bigelow's follow-up to The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty is a suspense film set during the 1967 Detroit riot. It will be released via Annapurna Pictures on August 4, 2017, the same day as The Dark Tower barring scheduling shifts. The ensemble cast is led by Star Wars' John Boyega and also include Anthony Mackie and Will Poulter.

Not sure how to read this one's potential yet: is it more Triple 9 or Straight Outta Compton? In the center, obviously, but leaning which way? And one big variable is Annapurna's ability to move from (acclaimed) indie production company to (fledgling) distributor. But I have faith in Bigelow's ability to deliver a well-reviewed film, and there is certainly room in August for an exciting, topical option for adults and urban audiences.

For now: 16/75

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1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game


Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:23 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
At first my thought was Assault on Precinct 13 numbers... but I didn't realize how low that did.

I think it could very well hit a $20 mil OW, and finish with $80+ mil or so.

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Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:46 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
28m/65m.


Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:58 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I'm not sure I agree that it's topical. I get why you're saying it is, but I also think the fact that it's set 50 years ago will turn off many of the young black audience that otherwise would have been interested in it. The same reason that Get On Up only made $30m as opposed to, say, if it was a film about Kanye West, it would have likely made more than double that. The trailer isn't bad, but I feel like this type of story has been told before many times before, and everything feels hidden and sheltered (great for the movie, but not sure its right for the trailer). I think it could just wind up making what Patriots Day made. It feels like a small film.

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Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:42 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I don't see it doing as badly as Triple 9, but it's not going to be another Compton or Get Out either. It has a good release date and the type of audience their going for could make it pretty leggy, but reviews/WOM needs to really strong IMO.

I'll say 20/65 for now.


Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:11 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
How will Bigelow's name carry a movie to $20m OW? Zero Dark Thirty did those numbers because of it being a hot topic then. Bigelow got a movie to Oscar win but that movie made less than $20m and don't tell me limited releases cannot do $65m-$80m. The star cast isn't a draw here and the movie seems very low-key to me. It would be great for awards and art house crowds but doesn't look too mainstream to me. Annapurna is also not a bonafide studio yet.

I see it doing $12m/$45m


Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:30 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I think Sparrow is right. High-end of its potential, but still right.

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Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:43 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Unconvinced Annapurna's maturity as a studio or as a distributor will mean much in terms of BO. If the film is good, it'll do well.

$60-80m DOM

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Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:58 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
While I am indifferent about the trailer, this movie has good box office potential. It touches on some of today's hot issues. One big question mark will be the distributor: will Annapurna Pictures be able to find the resources and the right media partners to market this to the mainstream?

$22m/$75m


Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:49 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I am really surprised that everyone is predicting $20m+ OW for this? Really no reason for this do that well, its not like these kind of movies always open big.


Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:45 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I'm thinking a total around 80 Million.

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Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:09 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I can agree on a good total with a leggier run but I just don't see how this will open to $20m OW in August, plus at the current release date it is opening against The Dark Tower.


Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:49 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Will probably open 14-18 Million.

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Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
This looks like a leggy, $100 mil hit.

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Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:37 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I am sure they are planning for a pretty wide release (2,500+) theaters. Marketing has picked up a lot too.

Now someone should make a "Detroit > The Dark Tower" Club.


Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:23 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Annapurna just pulled a Fences, and is doing a last-minute platform release this weekend, I believe in just LA and NY. I imagine a PTA similar to Fences is likely ($30-35k).

Buzz on this feels kinda low ATM, but reviews are very strong already - an 86 on Metacritic with 12 reviews in, 100%/8.1 on RT with 20 reviews. I'll be curious to see its WOM, as all the reviews seem to describe the film as relentlessly intense and upsetting. I'm not expecting a big run for it, maybe $11-12M opening, $35-45M total depending on legs. Would be a decent run for a first-time distributor though, probably one of the best actually?


Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Would be a decent run for a first-time distributor though, probably one of the best actually?


Building off of this, here are the best debuts by a distributor that I could find:

1. Insidious (2011, FilmDistrict) - $54 million
2. The Gift (STX Entertainment, 2015) - $43.8 million
3. 47 Meters Down (Entertainment Studios, 2017) - $43 million**
4. The Peacemaker (DreamWorks, 1997) - $41.3 million
5. Derailed (Weinstein Co., 2005) - $36 million
6. Howard's End (Sony Classics, 1992) - $26 million
7. Memento (Newmarket, 2001) - $25.5 million
8. Killer Elite (Open Road, 2011) - $25.1 million
9. Mad Money (Overture, 2008) - $20.7 million
10. Extraordinary Measures (CBS Films, 2011) - $12.1 million

Am I missing anything?


Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:08 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
I would expect a much bigger average this weekend in platform release than Fences got. I'm thinking maybe $60,000.

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Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:03 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
I would expect a much bigger average this weekend in platform release than Fences got. I'm thinking maybe $60,000.


They made this change only a few days ago, I feel like that's really gonna hurt its awareness and overall potential.


Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:54 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
It's stupid releasing this so early, but I guess studios are always blinded by summer weekdays.

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Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:20 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
It is indeed surprising that they made the change so soon but I was never expecting it to be big like many people think it would be.


Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:06 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
20 theaters for Detroit this weekend.

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Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:32 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Ok with that many theaters I'm not expecting such a huge average anymore :P.

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Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:57 pm
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
It will still have a big average. Its a very accessible mainstream movie after all. I don't think limited release will pan out for this.


Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:46 am
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Post Re: Detroit predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
It will still have a big average. Its a very accessible mainstream movie after all. I don't think limited release will pan out for this.


You don't think limited release will pan out for it but think it will have a big average?

I'm just saying the average won't be nearly as big as I initially said since 20 theaters is way more than I expected this weekend.

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Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:22 am
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