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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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 Sith Will Gross $150 Million By The End Of The Weekend!!!
I was going to wait until tomorrow, but there's no sense, because I feel very strongly about this, so why wait? Again, I hope that you will consider what I have to say, and I will continue making my points for this as the week goes on. I won't be lowering these numbers, but I very well could raise them.
Matrix Reloaded $37,508,303 - Soon to be shattered by Sith. (Thursday opening record)
Matrix Reloaded $134,282,716 - Soon to be shattered by Sith. (4 day opening record)
Shrek 2 $44,797,042 - Soon to be broken by Sith (Single day record)
There may be more records than that which will be falling, but it's still early. If you want a conservative analysis that covers everything, http://www.worldofkj.com/Articles/John-Ep3.php
That will give you everything that you need to consider, but without a theater count, I couldn't go all out on the opening, as George has shown that he is picky when it comes to which theaters show his films. He has given up that nonsense, as he has learned all about frontloading and what it means for a box office since 2002. Sith will most likely open a lot higher than 3700 theaters, but even if it dioesn't, that's plenty for what it needs to do.
Those Matrix numbers seriously need to be looked at. Matrix was NEVER "the next Star Wars". The fanbase doesn't even compare, and when dealing with R ratings compared to PG-13 ratings, the numbers of avenues that will be explored to market this movie are already in full swing. We've all seen Darth Vadar choking the red M&M, and we've all seen Yoda sitting at the counter in the restaurant using a Jedi mind trick on an unsuspecting patron to get his diet Pepsi off of him.
We've seen episodes of Joey (his season finale), where part of the story centered around getting tickets, and we've seen SNL promoting it during a sketch.
I'm not sure which fast food chain has Star Wars, but it's probably McDonalds or Burger King, as kids will be heavily targeted, despite the PG-13 rating. Matrix had none of these fast food, promotional partner tie ins, and the like, because the R rating killed all of that.
Also, the slump at the box office, with absolutely nothing big sucking away the potential audience, is going to play a HUGE factor in the upcoming record smashing opening. Audiences from all walks of life a ready to rumble!!!
I will try to hone the numbers in more as the week goes by, as I still do have more research, but expect these results...
Sith will have a $45M day after next Sunday
Sith will have $150M after next Sunday
The force will be with George Lucas!
Who wants to join me below?
1. Maverikk 2. scottb 3. Archie Gates 4. The Dark Shape 5. BKB The Man ($160M) 6. jmart007 7. BJ 8. Mesjarch 9. Nebs 10. Daniel Raedts 11. Zingaling 12. MadGez 13. jb007 14. movies35 15. BOYFRESH 16. KidRock69x 17. baumer72 18. KC 19. deathawk 20. neo_wolf 21. loyalfromlondon 22. Scott Vasquez 23. Impact
Last edited by Maverikk on Wed May 18, 2005 4:25 pm, edited 15 times in total.
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Sun May 15, 2005 5:14 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm Posts: 16020
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Matrix did have a video game...
I think the bigger question is...Will Maverikk, Zingaling, and Star Wars give Star Wars anything less than an A? :razz:
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Sun May 15, 2005 5:36 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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torrino wrote: Matrix did have a video game...  I think the bigger question is...Will Maverikk, Zingaling, and Star Wars give Star Wars anything less than an A? :razz:
Nope. :razz:
But, seriously, I'm starting to feel it. Sith can't be anything but huge. I don't know about the single day record, but opening day, Thursday opening, and 4-day, here we come. \:D/
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Sun May 15, 2005 5:39 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm Posts: 16020
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I've heard from a trusted KJ source who's seen the movie and received promotional toys that BK is the sponsor. 
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Sun May 15, 2005 5:47 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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torrino wrote: Matrix did have a video game...  I think the bigger question is...Will Maverikk, Zingaling, and Star Wars give Star Wars anything less than an A? :razz:
It really depends on the quality, but if it's as good as expected, I'll be one of many giving it an A+. This is the payoff, after all, and I've been a big fan of the prequels thus far.
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Sun May 15, 2005 6:06 pm |
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Jeff 42
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:44 pm Posts: 763
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Based on your Monster-in-Law thread maybe I'll go with $144 million. 
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:31 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Jeff 42 wrote: Based on your Monster-in-Law thread maybe I'll go with $144 million. 
haha...I'll work on getting you up to $150M. Plenty of info to still be shared, and by the end of Wednesday, it's my goal to make believers out of everyone. I think this is a no-brainer.
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:37 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32574 Location: the last free city
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i hope it does what you're predicting Mav.  i'm rooting for it.....but not predicting it  now that i've come back down to earth.
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:39 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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revolutions wrote: i hope it does what you're predicting Mav.  i'm rooting for it.....but not predicting it  now that i've come back down to earth.
It's not far fetched. Don't let any of these silly "Star Wars is not that popular" people convince you that you need to come back to reality.
Anybody who believes will be added to the first post. Please follow this thread, and you can join at any time. (before any numbers are available)
Sign up guys and gals!
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:42 am |
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scottb
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:50 pm Posts: 354 Location: Cleveland, OH, USA
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Its gonna be close I'm predicting between $145m and $150m. Also I give it 7 days to over taking Hitch for the #1 spot for this year so far and perhaps for good.
_________________ All time North American box office.
1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:47 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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scottb wrote: Its gonna be close I'm predicting between $145m and $150m.
Suck it up , Scott. It's going to break out HUGE! Go with the $150M, and join me as one of the believers!
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:50 am |
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scottb
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:50 pm Posts: 354 Location: Cleveland, OH, USA
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Maverikk wrote: scottb wrote: Its gonna be close I'm predicting between $145m and $150m. Suck it up , Scott. It's going to break out HUGE! Go with the $150M, and join me as one of the believers!
Sure I'll join you $150 million it is.
_________________ All time North American box office.
1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:51 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Good deal!
That's two of us. Does anybody else have the guts? We're not wrong on this.
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Mon May 16, 2005 12:55 am |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347
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A week or two ago in the SW prediction thread I guessed 155m 4 day so yes I think it will pass 150m the first weekend.
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:03 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Archie Gates wrote: A week or two ago in the SW prediction thread I guessed 155m 4 day so yes I think it will pass 150m the first weekend.
Alright, Archie! =D>
That's Three!
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:05 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32574 Location: the last free city
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Maverikk wrote: revolutions wrote: i hope it does what you're predicting Mav.  i'm rooting for it.....but not predicting it  now that i've come back down to earth. It's not far fetched. Don't let any of these silly "Star Wars is not that popular" people convince you that you need to come back to reality. Anybody who believes will be added to the first post. Please follow this thread, and you can join at any time. (before any numbers are available) Sign up guys and gals!
no thx  but best wishes with your recruiting. 
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:09 am |
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scottb
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:50 pm Posts: 354 Location: Cleveland, OH, USA
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Archie Gates wrote: A week or two ago in the SW prediction thread I guessed 155m 4 day so yes I think it will pass 150m the first weekend.
Welcome to the club.
_________________ All time North American box office.
1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:10 am |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm Posts: 26066 Location: In good ol' Mexico
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NO!!!
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:47 am |
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Amos
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:54 pm Posts: 1585 Location: New Zealand
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Something's holding me back from joining (rationality perhaps :wink: ) but I hope like hell you guys are right.
It's a shame ROTS won't beat Spider-Man's 3 day though...while SM is good it's not good enough to have a record that prestigious in my opinion. :???:
_________________ Cut My Milk!
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:53 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am Posts: 12119 Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Fuck it, why not? I'm tired of being "conservative" and "rational," so I'll be a total fanboy and agree.
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:54 am |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Amos wrote: Something's holding me back from joining (rationality perhaps :wink: ) but I hope like hell you guys are right.
It's a shame ROTS won't beat Spider-Man's 3 day though...while SM is good it's not good enough to have a record that prestigious in my opinion. :???:
And The Lost World and The Sorcerer's Stone were?
Heh, the title has been held by some pretty average films.
A $150m 4-day in May is a bit of a stretch. The film will require Thu and Sat to be the biggest days of all time, and I doubt that. $140m, maybe, but $150m is too much. I personally think it will make around $133m.
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
Last edited by Box on Mon May 16, 2005 1:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:56 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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I'm gonna raise your ante from 150 Million for the weekend to 160 Million.. =D>
_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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Mon May 16, 2005 1:57 am |
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scottb
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:50 pm Posts: 354 Location: Cleveland, OH, USA
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Amos wrote: Something's holding me back from joining (rationality perhaps :wink: ) but I hope like hell you guys are right.
It's a shame ROTS won't beat Spider-Man's 3 day though...while SM is good it's not good enough to have a record that prestigious in my opinion. :???:
ROTS would probably break easily if it opened on Friday. By the way a $150m 4-day means about a $110m 3-day which would be pretty close to Spider-Man.
_________________ All time North American box office.
1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m
Last edited by scottb on Mon May 16, 2005 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon May 16, 2005 2:05 am |
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Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21230 Location: Massachusetts
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Maverikk wrote: torrino wrote: Matrix did have a video game...  I think the bigger question is...Will Maverikk, Zingaling, and Star Wars give Star Wars anything less than an A? :razz: It really depends on the quality, but if it's as good as expected, I'll be one of many giving it an A+. This is the payoff, after all, and I've been a big fan of the prequels thus far.
If I give the movie anything lower than a A+, I will be shocked. I have progressively liked each new movie in the new series ( Menace A-, Clones A) so if that trend stays the same........
Also, I'll join in agreeing that it will make $150 over the weekend. I hope/think it might go even a little bit higher.
_________________My DVD Collection Marty McGee (1989-2005)
If I’m not here, I’m on Letterboxd.
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Mon May 16, 2005 2:05 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Dark Shape, jmart007, and BKB, I'm adding you.
Amos, Spider-Man is my favorite movie EVER!!!  :wink:
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Mon May 16, 2005 2:05 am |
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