Disney didn't do anything this time around to inflate TJB or Zootopia. Makes sense they wanted CA to hold onto every dollar.

I think it can do better than the predicted 26% drop.

I'm not bragging or anything but when I did my original summer predictions earlier this month I put down a $75 opening day and $182 weekend. Damn should have posted that somewhere...

I think that, as of now, $200+ million openers are the films that are cultural events. The Avengers was one, The Force Awakens was another (both expected) and Jurassic World was the unexpected one, but it was a major event for all children of the 90s. It seems like right now you do have to have a very particular event status to reach $200 million. Just being a hugely anticipated tentpole is not enough....yet. Inflation will of course change that.

Also, I can absolutely see Civil War being underestimated by $3-4 million.

not so hot opening. next avengers movie will probably have trouble to get to 175m...

I was thinking $180/450m until a few weeks ago when the reviews came in. Maybe Disney released those too early, since it gave plenty of time for people to say "oh it isn't thaaat good."

So it is a slight disappointment in that way. Saying that it doubled Winter Solider means nothing, but beating Iron Man 3 is still good.

It's a very good opening.

Very possible we have no 200m opening this year, and we probably won't get one till Episode 8? Idk

It'll be interesting to see if Infinity War can hit 200m. With having literally everyone from the MCU will help along with inflation, we'll see though as we thought both this and Ultron would do it.

good opening


Sunday drop seems optimistic, not underestimated

That's still a pretty great opening for Civil War, even in spite of the over-inflated expectations. Even though it's basically another Avengers sequel, seeing it open 91% above Winter Soldier is mightily impressive. The great audience reception should assure stronger legs than Age of Ultron, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it make a serious run at $500 million.

starting from X-men Competition will be strong.

You're being quite the cheerleader. Every single time there's a CIVIL WAR number, be it foreign or domestic, you say that you think it'll be higher.

All things considered it's a good opening, but am I somewhat disappointed that it didn't do more ? Yes. I don't care what anyone says, this had the potential to at least top AOU's opening. Civil War had much better reviews and marketing even if it wasn't technically a Avenger's film. I think the online hype really got the better of us, especially me, but all the signs pointed to a HUGE breakout. This just goes to show you that Avenger's pretty much maxed out it's audience and only the real fans are still showing up. I expect the same results for both Infinity Wars no matter who they put in it.

Does anyone know the 3D comparison to the other films in the franchise.

Huge number. I think it not going super high comes also the short time between films. The lack of significant drop off really does bode well for IW2 pulling a Potter or ROTS type opening blowout.

In case anyone is interested, I just finished a video essay breaking down Civil War's opening weekend, comparing the results to tracking and predictions, comparisons to other films, and forecasting the rest of the run. I'm sure some of you would enjoy this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foMQ4uYbjG0

Foreign predicted $225m OS weekend and it came at $220m. I'm comparing this to AoU Sunday so I think it can do better than 26% drop.

I will be interested in that too. I believe with over saturated midnight showings the 3d ratio over OW is getting lower with each huge opener. BvS also would have had the same effect.

The only reason I am annoyed is because I predicted a $480m total, but because of you fanboy wankers, bumped it up to $560m.

Fuck sake. Fucking fanboys.

In other news, Zootopia overtakes Batman v Superman.

Yes for fuck sake Bk really needed those points. He is out of the race based this weekend.

CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48

These are the Sunday numbers.....so CW opens to about 178.

Wait, what? The Jungle Book underestimated by $3+ million and Mother's Day made on, um, Mother's Day more than two-thirds of its opening weekend?

Guess they should have called their movie : "Captain America : Mother's Day Civil War".

Damn at the Mother's Day number! I think that would put it at around 11.5m for the weekend and a 36% increase. That would put it at #3 for the smallest 2nd weekend drops of all time, and the smallest non-Christmas release. Granted, it did have its titular holiday this weekend, but still fairly impressive and will make its run less of a disappointment. Will likely plummet from here.

I assumed that JB Sunday estimate was low. Mom's with young children often get "treated" to a movie by their kids, and it has to be something kid-friendly, so that was the go-to option.

That's incredible for Mother's Day. 80% drop next weekend. Lol.