Would MOS have held much better if the direct competition didn't open to 150 million?

Is that what you asked?

MU was not direct, but it was a distraction.

It could have leveled off later. Plus, TMNT was direct competition for GOTG, opened to the same level as WWZ, and still just fell 55%. There was no blockbuster toon, however in that case. But how many people interested in MOS really chose MU over it?

No, it couldn't. The fight for screens going into July 4 of 2013 was crazy.



Lots of people, I would wager. The combo cost MOS at least 15 million in it's 2nd weekend.

Man of Steel had no big competition open June 28, or Jul 4, (though DM2 was distracting, like MU, but still not direct competition. Though of course, that's when it lost thousands of theaters.)

You don't think MOS would have even had the standard 55% plus drop week 2?

Huh? White House Down and Lone Ranger both tanked, but they didn't make zero. Their combined gross was still large relative to everything else. The Heat did well too.

In Weekend 2, the openers combined for 148 million (enormous number). MOS fell 65%.
In weekend 3, the openers combined for 65 million, a big number. The previous weeks holdovers combined for 76 million. That is 141 million combined. MOS fell 49%. MOS lost 1200 theaters this week.
In weekend 4, the new openers combined for 113 million, while the hold overs $78 million for a combined 191 million. MOS fell 45%.

Any way you slice, that is enormous, back breaking competition. I know it's the middle of summer and there are going to big movies out a lot, but that's simply ridiculous. Historically that is an extremely impressive period.

I don't know how one can point at MOS's legs and say they were a sign of poor WOM putting MOS's legs in the context of the situation it opened in.

If weekend 2 is a normal week, as opposed to a weekend where the openers total 148 million, MOS's drop - in my opinion - probably goes from 65% to 55%. That number is supported by the fact that MOS saw good drops throughout each of it's 4 week days.

That isn't an amazing hold, but it's in line with TDK and TDKR. Weekend 3, it's probably 42-43%. Weekend 4 is probably under 40% drop.

With those drops, that is an extra $11 million in weekend 2, an extra 4 million weekend 3, and so fourth, plus weekdays.

It seems obvious to me that had MOS opened on, say, Pacific Rim's date, it's total gross is probably about 35 to 40 million higher than it ended up at, assuming they open similarly.

Excel, please stop, you should have already realized that Zwackerm won't get it.

MoS had Monsters University and World War Z on its second weekend, both OVERPERFORMED
TDKR was affected by the shootings and wasN'T released in 3D, it was a 2D movie, it UNDERPERFORMED

I mean Im not saying MOS was beloved or something, IM just saying one cannot point at it's raw numbers and be all "see!!! it dropped like a rock - people hated it!!"

MoS was definitely hit by competition but if it had better WOM it could have held better. The second weekend had a lot of factors going in. Not only were the openers impressive but the Walmart numbers also added MoS's second weekend drop so I regardless I don't see it getting any better than 55% drop. I'd still argue though that the WoM wasn't great which allowed other films to over-perform specially WWZ.

WOM could have been better, that wasn't the point.

Alright let me put it in accordance if the WOM was infact great it could have fended off competition and still do more. Summer's always have competition around them but movies can still get decent legs. I still don't see how its third weekend was hit so hard (should have dropped in early 40's) and please for a prime summer spot $65m is good but not huge number.

The holdovers were still huge. Those weekends were enormous.

They were expected to be big. They knew these factors when they release MoS but they were banking on it being good WoM juggernaut that it clearly wasn't. Think this whole conversation started somewhere here if the MoS is still beloved or not. If they make a not-so-great film audience don't like Superman just like in the case of Spidey who is now also suffering from overload-of-sequel-with-nothing-fresh fatigue (which aka was not the case with Superman).

Yes, it was a very stupid decision by DC to release the movie when they did.


The point is Swackerm is saying mOS wasnt popular but other marvel movies which had comparable admissions to what mos either 1) actually had, or 2) would have had in a comparable release setting - were very popular?

its hypocritical.

I get where zwackerm is coming from but I do agree that the popularity of Superman and Batman are big but maybe not bigger than all of Marvel superheroes specially the former.

Here's what I believe is the popularity chart
1. Batman
2. Spidey (think its very close with Sups and IM)
3. Superman & Iron Man
4. X-Men (as a whole, Wolverine alone comes fifth) & CA & Thor
5. Wolverine (taken alone) & Hulk
6. Black Widow
7. Green Lantern (how the mighty have fallen)
8. Hawkeye
9. Arrow & Flash (due to the TV series)
10. and so on...

LOL at Black Widow featuring on this list at all. LOL LOL LOL. And you forgot The Fantastic Four. Or do you think they are less popular than Flash and Arrow? If so, more LOL LOL LOL.

After the first trailer I'm tempted to join...

This will gross way closer to GOTG than Avengers 2. Which is still great, considering this isn't an Avengers movie. The trailer very clearly makes Cap take center stage.

I was gonna bump this last night. Absolutely in now. $180/$460m.

No, but I still think it'll end up in IRON MAN 3 territory.

still in

I hope it beats AOU. It's already a better movie just with that teaser

Shit just got real!

I think it will end up in the $390-$420m range which is huge. Honestly thats probably where BvS will finish also.

May is extremely heavy competition wise but IM3 numbers are certainly doable.

Lowering expectations to $350m. The max I see is $375m.

I think once we get the trailer with Spidey expectations will blow over the roof. That said I'm not sure.

It looks boring.